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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,392
Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: July 6, 2021

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy. Partly cloudy and windy in San Pedro. A relatively moist environment prevails over the area.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with some cloudy spells today and partly cloudy to cloudy tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms will occur mostly over northern and inland areas today and then mostly over southern parts of the country tonight. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms will be isolated.
Winds: E, 5-15 kts , BECOMING E-SE, 10-20 kts, Gusty
Sea State: Light Chop BECOMING Choppy-Rough
Waves: 2-4 ft BECOMING 3-7 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Wednesday and Wednesday night is for isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms, except for a few more occurring over the south during the night.
Sargassum Forecast from June 29 to July 7: The chances of sargassum affecting local beaches will remain high during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 6:00 am, Tropical Storm Elsa was centered near latitude 24.5N, longitude 82.6W, or about 55 miles west of Key West, Florida. Elsa was moving to the NNW at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 60mph. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Elsa is along the NW coast of Cuba. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the S quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm of the center in the N quadrant. This precipitation is reaching parts of the Bahamas near Andros Island, the Florida Keys, and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Other scattered moderate is reaching 28N in Florida, and in the adjacent coastal waters on either side of Florida.

An inland Central America tropical wave is along 89W from 18N southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. The tropical wave extends from the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize southward, beyond El Salvador. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, and dissipating but remnant rainshowers are in Central America, to the east of the tropical wave. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 13N southward from 74W westward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Elsa near 23.5N 82.3W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Elsa will strengthen slightly as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 24.9N 82.9W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Fresh to strong winds will continue south of Cuba through Tue morning, and gradually improve, as Elsa continues to move more to the north, away from the basin. Widespread fresh to strong trade winds will increase in the south central Caribbean Sea by Tuesday, and continue through the rest of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras, from Tuesday night through the rest of the week.

  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
27° C
81° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
24° C
76° F
Hills 26° C
78° F
20° C
68° F
High: 6:59 AM Low: 2:34 PM
High: 9:33 PM Low: 1:39 AM (Wed)
Sunrise: 5:23 AM Moonset: 3:55 PM
Sunset: 6:31 PM Moonrise: 3:17 AM (Wed)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Key West, Florida. It's moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north by tonight. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today and continuing into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently measured a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h).ow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after it moves inland.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,392
Marty Offline OP
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A misty and hot landscape will be present in the Caribbean area due to a wide cloud of Powder from the Sahara, the most dance part of this particulate will arrive in Puerto Rico between today and Wednesday, and later in the Dominican Republic. The sky will turn greyish blue and a dry environment will be seen, this provides dry air and inhibits cloud formation resulting in shortage of rain. Persons with respiratory problems should take precautionary measures.

[Linked Image]

3 Tropical Waves heading to the Caribbean, plus Tropical Storm Elsa affecting Cuba and the US.

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Elsa is now located over the Florida Straits, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts occurring across the Lower and Middle Keys. Doppler radar data and satellite images indicate that the core of Elsa is fairly small and has maximum winds of around 50 kt. The outer rainbands associated with Elsa are spreading northward across southern Florida, and a cluster of deep convection has been lingering over portions of central and western Cuba.

Elsa is moving to the north-northwest at about 10 kt on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge that is located over the central Atlantic. The storm should turn northward later today as it moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low over the south-central U.S. This motion should take the core of Elsa parallel to and likely just offshore of the west coast of Florida through tonight. After that time, a slight turn to the north-northeast is forecast as another trough moves across the north-central U.S. This slight change in heading should bring Elsa inland across the Big Bend region of Florida by early Wednesday and then across coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday night through early Friday. Thereafter, the storm is expected to accelerate and move northeastward off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. The NHC track forecast is basically unchanged from the previous one and lies close to the model consensus aid TVCA.

[Linked Image]

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,392
Marty Offline OP
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The easterly Caribbean winds have pockets of rain in them, presently causing many small rain showers all up the coast line, mainly central to north areas. The tropical storm having little or no effect on our weather, it appears to be a loose collection of swellups now crossing Cuba.

Looks as if today will be mainly sunny, with significant clouds and a possibility of the odd rain shower.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 26°C 78°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 2.0 mm ( 0.08") Over Night Rain 0.2 mm ( 0.0" )

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,392
Marty Offline OP
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Crown Weather:

Looking At Other Things In The Tropics Besides Elsa - It appears that things may quiet down somewhat once Elsa moves out of the picture later this week. With that said, we may need to keep an eye on the far western Caribbean near northern Honduras and Belize for some sort of quick tropical spin up around Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Right now, only the GFS model and the GFS ensemble model guidance show this brief tropical development with other guidance not showing anything.

I'm a little skeptical that we will see this sort of development because we will be entering a downward phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation during the middle of this month. This means that the background state of the atmosphere across the Tropical Atlantic will be unfavorable for development and any tropical disturbances will have to work really hard to develop. With all of that said, it is something that I am watching, just in case.

Beyond this, I think that we are going to have to really watch later July and especially much of the month of August for a burst of activity across the Atlantic and I want you to know that I am extremely concerned of how active the peak part of the season may be. Many of the seasonal models are forecasting an extremely active period beginning in late July as a new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation pushes into the Atlantic Basin.

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,392
Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Mostly clear, a few scattered colds. Mostly clear and windy in San Pedro. Generally fair conditions prevail over the area.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated except for a few more inland this afternoon and over the toledo district tonight.

Outlook: For Wednesday afternoon to Thursday midday is for mainly fair weather with only isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,392
Marty Offline OP
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Loving the San Pedro Ambergris Caye view this Tuesday morning view. Photos by Belize Scoop Blogger

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[Linked Image]

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Tuesday morning view from Corozal. Photo by Belize Scoop Blogger

[Linked Image]

Last edited by Marty; 07/07/21 05:56 AM.

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