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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: July 9, 2021

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear, a few clouds in the southwest. Mostly clear and windy in San Pedro. A moderate to fresh easterly airflow prevails over the area.
Advisories: Operators of small crafts are advised to exercise caution for occasionally gusty winds and locally rough seas. There is the possibility for flooding in low-lying and flood prone areas over the Toledo district, due to heavy rains overnight.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with some cloudy spells. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur over most areas this morning. Otherwise, showers or thunderstorms will be isolated.
Winds: E, 10-20 kts Gusty
Sea State: Moderate- Rough
Waves: 5-7 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Friday night and Saturday is for isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms to develop.
Sargassum Forecast from July 7 to July 14: There is a medium to high chance of new sargassum mats landing on beaches across the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.

A scatterometer pass from around 03 UTC confirmed winds to minimal gale force off the coast of Santa Marta, Colombia. The scatterometer pass and buoy observations also indicated strong to near gale force winds over much of the south-central Caribbean. Seas are estimated to be as high as 13 ft in the area of gale force winds, based on recent buoy and altimeter satellite data. Seas in excess of 8 ft are also evident as far east as 65W, due to the long duration and fetch of fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern Caribbean. Moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean, except slightly higher along the central and western coast of Honduras. There are scattered showers and thunderstorms off Panama and Costa Rica due to trade winds convergence, local drainage flow and perhaps aided by a tropical wave move through that area. No significant shower or thunderstorms activity is noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area combined with the Colombian low will enhance strong to gale force winds north of Colombia through this morning. Fresh to strong trades will continue in the south- central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through early next week.

  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
27° C
81° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 27° C
81° F
20° C
68° F
High: 9:08 AM Low: 4:35 PM
High: 10:48 PM Low: 3:23 AM (Sat)
Sunrise: 5:24 AM Moonrise: 4:55 AM
Sunset: 6:31 PM Moonset: 6:32 PM

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has begun monitoring a low pressure area located over South Texas, the system is producing large rain and Storms over the northwest of the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally the development of this system is not expected because it is likely to stand on ground. Regardless, heavy rains and flash flooding will be possible along Texas on the Gulf shores in the coming days. Formation chance through 5 days is low, near 0 percent.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the East at 24 mph.Today's expected high temperature is set at 89 f.


White Sands Dive Shop
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,392
Marty Offline OP
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Beautiful photo Elbert!

There has been scattered rain in many parts of Belize earlier and still some around but much less now. This appears to have been caused by a blanket of mid or high level cloud sitting over Belize and the easterly Caribbean winds clashing with them.

Looks as if the heavier cloud will thin later and give a fir amount of sunshine, but a significant chance of rain showers.

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Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 27°C 780°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 0.0 mm ( 0.0") Over 1.5 mm ( 0.06" )

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,392
Marty Offline OP
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Crown Weather:

Activity Quiets Down Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico For At Least The Next 10-14 Days; Activity Then Likely Picks Back Up In Earnest By Late July Into Early August

Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to quickly cross southeastern parts of New England over the next couple of hours before heading for Atlantic Canada and becoming extra-tropical by late today. With Elsa just about out of the picture, let's turn to the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

The rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are quiet today with no other areas of interest. It appears that no tropical development is expected across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico through this weekend and very likely through all of next week. In fact, it is possible that we may not see any other tropical systems develop for the next couple of weeks or so.

The reason for this period of quiet is due to a downward pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation. When this occurs, the background state of the atmosphere is such that tropical disturbances have to work extremely hard to develop into tropical depressions and tropical storms and most times they don't.

The next upward pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to enter the Atlantic Basin around the last week of July and remain in place through at least the first half of August. When this occurs, I expect that tropical activity will ramp back up and the strength of the upward motion pulse for August looks very concerning as it could really "seed" tropical disturbances pushing off of the coast of Africa and give them a huge boost to develop.

Colorado State University updated their hurricane season forecast and are now calling for a total of 20 named storms this season. Given the data that I've been looking at, I completely agree with their forecast and even think that the forecast may be a bit low & a total of 20 to 25 named storms is not out of the question. In fact, there's the possibility that we could exhaust the list of names again this season and go into the alternate list.

If that wasn't enough, the seasonal models are trending towards an upper level weather pattern during August and September that consists of a large upper level high pressure system across the western Atlantic. Should this occur, it would mean any tropical systems heading westward from the coast of Africa probably will not curve northward and head prematurely into the North Atlantic. Instead, these systems would likely continue heading west and threaten the Lesser Antilles, much of the Caribbean and eventually possibly the US coastline and the Bahamas.

Given the pattern of tropical waves pushing off of Africa at a low latitude this season, I think that the Lesser Antilles and particularly Barbados and the Windward Islands are at high risk this season from a tropical cyclone moving westward. In addition, at least a couple of "Caribbean Cruisers" are possible and this would put Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and Central America at high risk.

Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Partly cloudy, clear in the north and the southern coast. Clear and windy in San Pedro. Sunny with a few cloudy spells during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. Showers will be generally isolated this afternoon mainly over southern and inland areas becoming isolated. A small craft caution remains in effect for gusty winds and rough seas. Flood alert: Flooding is occuring over low-lying and flood prone areas over the Toledo District, due to heavy overnight rains.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. Showers will be generally isolated mainly over inland and southern areas this afternoon becoming isolated tonight.

Outlook: For Saturday afternoon through to midday Sunday is for mainly fair weather with isolated showers.

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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Hopkins shoreline...

San Pedro Views... Photos by Belize Scoop Blogger

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