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Belize Weather Forecast: July 16, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear this morning, a few clouds in the Chiquibul area. Clear skies and windy in San Pedro. Generally fair weather prevails. Advisories: A flood warning is in effect for flooding in low lying and flood prone areas in the southern districts. 24-hour forecast: Today skies will be mostly sunny. Tonight skies will be partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstomrs will be isolated. Winds: Light and Variable Sea State: Slight Waves: 1-3 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86 Outlook: For Saturday and Saturday night is for partly cloudy skies and shower activity during the day will be isolated, then expect a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop mainly in the south during the night. Sargassum Forecast from July 7 to July 14: There is a medium to high chance of new sargassum mats landing on beaches across the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours. Click for more... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea Middle to upper level diffluent flow over the NW Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and tstms in the lee side of Cuba and adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in this region of convection. Similar convection is the SE Caribbean associated with a tropical wave. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds dominate the central and eastern basin with seas from 3 to 6 ft, except the Gulf of Venezuela and Colombia adjacent waters where winds have fresh to strong speeds. High pressure N of the area extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will continue to support moderate to fresh winds across the central and eastern basin through today, except in the south- central Caribbean where winds will be fresh to strong. Winds in the south-central Caribbean are expected to expand in areal coverage this weekend through Tue night as two tropical waves move across the eastern and central basin. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night in the Windward Passage through Sun night.   High Low Coastal 31° C 88° F 27° C 80° F Inland 34° C 94° F 23° C 74° F Hills 29° C 84° F 19° C 66° F TIDES: Low: 8:41 AM High: 2:33 PM Low: 8:54 PM High: 3:15 AM (Sat) Sunrise: 5:26 AM Moonrise: 11:19 AM Sunset: 6:30 PM Moonset: 11:32 PM Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: There are no organized systems in the Atlantic basin at this time. While there are a few tropical waves crossing the basin, tropical development is not anticipated through at least early next week, mainly due to a broad area of Saharan dust over much of the Atlantic basin. A non-tropical low pressure system has developed a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. Tropical development is not expected to occur with this feature over the next few days as it accelerates northeastward across the northern Atlantic Ocean. Through this weekend, a broad upper-air low pressure system will stall over the southwestern Atlantic. While this area will be monitored for signs of tropical or subtropical development, computer guidance continues to suggest development will not occur as there remains limited shower and thunderstorm activity at this time. For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

We continue to monitor multiple tropical waves tracking from east to west across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, July 15-18, 2021. We do not expect or anticipate cyclone development thru July 18, 2021.

The Caribbean winds are coming from the NNE this morning, with only a little cloud, but there is mid level cloud coming in from various angles, some causing some rain showers down the southern coast.

Looks as if today will be mainly sunny, but ther could be the odd rain shower occasionally.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 77°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F Yesterday Rain 0.1 mm ( 0") Over Night Rain 0 mm ( 0" )

A lot of small rain showers around.



Crown Weather:

No Tropical Development Anticipated Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Through This Weekend & Through Next Week

Due to the continued downward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, no tropical development is expected across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico through this weekend and likely through next week.

We now wait for the next upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation to arrive in the Atlantic. That still looks to occur right around either the very end of this month or during the first part of August. This upward motion pulse is then anticipated to remain in place across the Atlantic through much of the month of August. Once this occurs, I expect that tropical activity will ramp back up beginning around the very end of this month or the very beginning of August.

At this point, none of the model guidance forecasts any sort of tropical development for the next two weeks or so. Beyond this, the very long range CFS model continues to forecast an uptick in activity beginning around the first of August with this model showing at least a couple of disturbances to really watch as they head westward towards the Lesser Antilles and then the Bahamas.

Some of the latest ensemble guidance are forecasting a very troubling upper air pattern for the peak of the hurricane season - in fact, it's downright ugly!! These guidance members are showing a blocking high pressure system to set up over southeastern Canada and a setup like this is usually associated with much more frequent hurricane landfalls on the US Coastline and in the Caribbean.

So, "enjoy" the quiet that we will probably have for the next couple of weeks or so because it looks like it's going to be very, very busy in terms of tropical storm and hurricane activity for August and September. In addition, with the weather pattern that looks to be setting up, it appears that very few storms will curve out into the open Atlantic, but instead head towards land. I know I sound like a broken record with my updates regarding the peak of the hurricane season, but it looks downright ugly and dangerous in terms of hurricane landfalls this season.

Present Condition: Scattered clouds on the mainland, clear and windy in San Pedro. A light easterly to northeasterly airflow prevails.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur mainly over inland and southern areas this afternoon with isolated shower actvity elsewhere.

Outlook: Generally fair weather is expected on Saturday afternoon and most of Saturday night followed by an increase in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday morning.





Flood Report and Forecast for July 16, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - Levels recorded today on the RIO HONDO and NEW RIVER at all stations are near normal and steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities are below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge and steady. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town shows a minimal increase but remains below normal and steady.

Levels on the BELIZE RIVER at the Double Run is below normal and steady. The CROOKED TREE LAGOON remains below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - Levels recorded on the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is now above normal and continues to increase. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. The watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS have increase minimally and is now above normal and decreasing. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is above normal and decreasing. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are below normal and steady. Levels on the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank are below normal and steady. The RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia is now below the banks and continues to decrease; and at Big Falls South, levels are near normal and increasing slowly. Flood levels on the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, have receded to above normal levels; and at Jordan, Flood levels continues to decrease. Flood levels on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco continues to decrease.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, flood stage continues to decrease.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - Levels on the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the coast no significant change is expected. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and at Caledonia, no significant change in river levels is expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to increase; at San Ignacio, levels are expected to increase minimally. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, no significant change is expected.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, no significant change is expected; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, no significant change is expected.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels are expected to continue to increase then gradually show a decrease. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS levels are expected to continue to increase. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are expected to continue to increase. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia levels are expected to continue to decrease to normal levels; and at Big Falls South, levels are expected to continue to increase. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, flood levels are expected to continue to decrease to above normal levels. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, levels are expected to decrease, becoming normal.

REGIONS 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are expected to decrease becoming normal levels.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON JULY 19, 2021

Musical interlude. The Los Hijos del West performing during the procession today in Benque. Marimba!