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Belize Weather Forecast: July 26, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear skies throughout the country, except in the Chiquibul area. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Fair weather prevails. Advisories: None. 24-hour forecast: Sunny and warm today, then partly cloudy tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated. Winds: Light + Va, 0-10 kts Sea State: Slight Waves: 1-3 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85 Outlook: For Tuesday and Tuesday night is for a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms, as a tropical wave approaches the area. Sargassum Forecast from July 20 to July 28: There continues to be a medium chance of sargassum affecting beaches mainly over the northern parts of the country. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: An area of low pressure located a short distance east of Jacksonville, Florida, has a low chance of becoming a depression during the next 48 hours. Click for more... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea There are three tropical waves causing convection across the Caribbean Basin. The risk of flooding over the southwest Caribbean has diminished. However, there are still lingering scattered showers and tstorms in the area with less areal coverage compared to the previous days. Light SE winds and slight seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. The trade wind flow is lighter than usual, related in part to a relatively weaker subtropical ridge north of the area. Gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin today will become moderate to fresh on Tue. The exception will be moderate to locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia. Winds will increase across the E and central Caribbean Wed night into Fri as the Atlantic ridge builds westward in the wake of a trough moving westward across the Atlc waters north of the Greater Antilles.   High Low Coastal 33° C 91° F 27° C 80° F Inland 36° C 96° F 22° C 72° F Hills 29° C 84° F 19° C 66° F TIDES: Low: 4:59 AM High: 11:21 AM Low: 6:21 PM High: 12:28 AM (Tue) Sunrise: 5:30 AM Moonset: 7:54 AM Sunset: 6:28 PM Moonrise: 8:53 PM Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: We continue to monitor a low just to the east of Florida for signs of tropical development, and conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development into Sunday night before the low pressure area moves onshore. Whether this develops into a tropical depression or not, downpours over central and southern Florida will continue into tonight as this low moves onshore. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are possible over the entire east coast of Florida through the Outer Banks and into the northern Bahamas as this churns the Atlantic Ocean. Elsewhere, there are a few waves moving westward through the basin, but none of those waves show any signs of organizing due to an extensive area of dry air and wind shear across much of the central and eastern Atlantic at this time. For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Tropical wave No. 15 is crossing the Yucat�n Peninsula and Central America. It will favor scattered storms in its path. Two other tropical waves are approaching from the Caribbean.

Presently there is hardly a cloud in the sky. The Caribbean winds are starting, bu moving up northwards and not over Belize. There is a high level rotation over the Gulf. There is a large area of ITCZ swellups and cloud way out in the Caribbean that could affect us in the next few days.

Today
Looks as if it will be mainly sunshine, only a little cloud developing in patches, probably no rain

Tonight
Probably very similar most of the day into the night.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 77°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0.")

Good morning from Corozal. Photo by Belize Scoop Blogger

Crown Weather:

What Is Out In The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico?

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are quiet today with no areas of immediate concern.

A tropical wave now pushing across the central Caribbean is producing some widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across areas to the south of Jamaica. It is expected that this tropical wave will move into the eastern Pacific where it may be the trigger for tropical development in the eastern Pacific late this week.

There are some huge differences between the GFS ensemble model and the European ensemble model for tropical activity in the month of August. The GFS ensemble model is forecasting that the Atlantic will shut down for most of the month of August with all of the upward motion remaining in the eastern Pacific. The European ensemble model seems to suggest that the Main Development Region of the Atlantic will "wake up" beginning between August 10 and August 20.

Given that we are heading into another La Nina, I think that the GFS ensemble model may be very incorrect and that the European ensemble model may be much closer to reality.

Even though the operational models, such as the GFS, Canadian and European models, really show no development for the next 10-14 days or so, the ensemble model guidance do hint at some areas to potentially watch.

One area to possibly watch is the area between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles where the ensemble model guidance are showing an uptick in members that forecast development during the first week of August. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance is showing about a 20 percent chance for tropical development during the first week of August in the area between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Much like the first area to watch, this area is something to just keep an eye on for now. Given that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be pushing into the Atlantic beginning the first of August, I think that we will soon see the Atlantic Basin begin to "wake up" again. My thinking is that we should begin to see the Atlantic Basin start ramping up in activity beginning between about August 10 and August 20 or so. That means, for now, we watch and wait.

Present Condition: Clear skies throughout the country, including San Pedro. Generally fair weather prevails.

24hr Forecast: Sunny today and partly cloudy skies tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated.

Outlook: Between Tuesday midday and Wednesday afternoon is for an increase in showers and thunderstorms along the coast and over the south with the approach and passage of a tropical wave.





Tropical wave party. Weather analysis shows low pressure north of the Yucatan peninsula. It will be combined with the arrival of tropical wave no. 16. Two other tropical waves are in the Caribbean.



Flood Report and Forecast for today July 26, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - Levels recorded today on the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, San Antonio, San Roman, Santa Cruz and Douglas to the Coast are below normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER below normal levels were recorded at Tower Hill and near normal and steady levels at Caledonia.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities are below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and steady. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town is near normal and steady.

Levels on the BELIZE RIVER at the Double Run is below normal and steady. The CROOKED TREE LAGOON remains below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - Levels recorded on the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is below normal and steady. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. River levels in watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS is below normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is below normal and steady. The Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER is below normal and steady. Levels on the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is below normal and steady. The RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia is above normal and continues to fall slowly; and at Big Falls South, levels are near normal and steady. Levels on the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan is now below normal and continues to fall. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is above normal and continues to fall.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - Levels on the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, San Antonio, San Roman, Santa Cruz and Douglas to the Coast, no significant change in river levels is expected. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and at Caledonia, no significant change in river levels is expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remail below the low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, no significant change in river levels is expected.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, no significant change in river levels is expected; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are expected to remain below the ccauseway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, no significant change in river levels is expected. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change in river levels is expected. In the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, and the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, and the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, no significant change in river levels is expected. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, levels are expected fall to below normal levels. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, levels are expected to become steady. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco above normal levels are expected to continue to decrease.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, normal and steady levels are expected.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON JULY 28, 2021

Drone view: Coconut Row in Hopkins. Photos by Hopkins Uncut



Planting for the future! Hopkins Village.