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Belize Weather Forecast: July 29, 2021

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Cloudy skies throughout the country. Mostly cloudy in San Pedro. Gradually improving conditions expected for today, while a relatively moist airmass prevails over the area.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy at times today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated today with a few more developing over the southern districts tonight.
Winds: E, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Choppy
Waves: 3-5 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: Generally isolated showers and thunderstorms for Friday. Then a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop will occur mostly over the southern districts on Friday night with isolated activity elsewhere.
Sargassum Forecast from July 28 to August 4: Satellite imagery suggests a high concentration of sargassum mats over the area therefore there is a medium to high chance that sargassum will affect local beaches in the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, and two in the Caribbean.

An upper-level trough extends WNW from a low near Puerto Rico at 20N66W through another low N of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Divergent winds S of these features are coupling with convergent trade winds to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over E Jamaica and W Haiti, and the NW Caribbean Basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on additional convection.

Tightening pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the low over N Colombia is creating fresh to locally strong trades with seas at 6 to 8 ft over the S central Caribbean basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present along the W basin. Mainly moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected across the basin tonight. The exception will be moderate to locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia, in the Gulf of Venezuela and Gulf of Honduras, and S coast of Hispaniola. Winds will begin to increase across the E and central Caribbean late tonight through Thu night, then persist through the weekend, as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. Strong winds are expected at night near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Mon.

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

There are currently no organized tropical systems found across the basin at this time and none are expected to develop through at least this weekend. Dry, dusty air continues to dominate the open Atlantic and no significant features support development in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

However, a more robust tropical wave is now exiting westward off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verde Islands. While this feature is not expected to develop into an organized tropical system, it could help dampen some of the dry, dusty air currently over the Atlantic over the next week and could be the start of conditions becoming more conducive for development again heading toward late next week and into the second week of August.

A cold front will also move into the southeastern United States this weekend and could stall near the Southeast coast early next week. This could also serve as the impetus for a weak tropical system to form right near the coast, but the chances of this are quite low at this time.