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Belize Weather Forecast: July 31, 2021 #551852
07/31/21 06:03 AM
07/31/21 06:03 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,764
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: July 31, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy except in the north and east this morning. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Moist and unstable conditions prevail.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy with some outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms around the country.
Winds: E, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Choppy
Waves: 3-5 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Sunday and Sunday night is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms especially along the coast.
Sargassum Forecast from July 28 to August 4: Satellite imagery suggests a high concentration of sargassum mats over the area therefore there is a medium to high chance that sargassum will affect local beaches in the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There is one tropical waves in the Atlantic, and two in the Caribbean.

A moderate pressure gradient from a surface ridge north of the Caribbean to lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean. Scatterometer satellite pass from overnight showed moderate to fresh E trades in the NE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate breezes are noted. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over the central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, dry air prevails across the basin, resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean will continue through early Mon. Expect trades to become fresh to locally strong Mon through Wed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras on Wed.


  High Low
Coastal 29° C
84° F
27° C
80° F
Inland 30° C
86° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 26° C
78° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES:
Low: 10:15 AM High: 3:23 PM
Low: 9:45 PM High: 3:34 AM (Sun)
Sunrise: 5:31 AM Moonset: 12:07 PM
Sunset: 6:26 PM Moonrise: 11:52 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

There are currently no organized tropical systems found across the basin at this time and none are expected to develop through at least early next week. Dry, dusty air continues to dominate the open Atlantic and no significant features support any development in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean.

While the entire basin remains quite tranquil for now, tropical waves coming off the African coast are starting to clear away some of the dry, dusty air and provide a boost of tropical moisture to the main developmental region of the basin. This trend is expected to continue into the middle of August, with the chances for tropical development increasing as a result during that time.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: July 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #551853
07/31/21 06:40 AM
07/31/21 06:40 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,258
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the East at 12 mph with a calm sea conditions around our barrier reef . Today's expected high temperature is set at 84 f.

FB_IMG_1627493034645.jpg

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Re: Belize Weather Forecast: July 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #551854
07/31/21 07:49 AM
07/31/21 07:49 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,764
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
There are a whole bunch of ITCZ Swellups presently, mainly in a line from the Caribbean, aimed at central Belize. There was a line of rain crossing over Belize during the night, a fair amount of rain down south. Now this new line is coming in at Belize.

Today
Looks as if it will be rather mixed weather, Rain, some heavy coming into central Belize shortly and on and off over much of the day. A lower chance of rain to the south and more sunshine in the north, low chance of rain.

Tonight
This pattern could continue into the night, perhaps more rain down south.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25C 78F Yesterday max. 32C 90F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 4.2 mm (0.2")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: July 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #551855
07/31/21 10:23 AM
07/31/21 10:23 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,764
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
The worst of the Swellups are going through between Dangriga and Orange Walk. And probably continuing through much of the day.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: July 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #551857
07/31/21 12:11 PM
07/31/21 12:11 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,764
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Cloudy throughout the country, including San Pedro. Rainfall in many areas. Moist and unstable conditions prevail over the area. Operators of small crafts are advised to exercise caution for occasionally gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. There is the possibility for flooding in low-lying and flood prone areas especially in the south.

24hr Forecast: Mostly cloudy skies with some showers and a few thunderstorms over most areas of the country, but especially over coastal and southern areas this afternoon and tonight, decreasing slightly tomorrow morning

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will be generally isolated on Sunday afternoon and then increase once more over the south and coast on Sunday night into Monday morning.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: July 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #551858
07/31/21 03:49 PM
07/31/21 03:49 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,764
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Looks like another round of swellup rain coming in this afternoon, probably affecting central to northern areas.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: July 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #551859
07/31/21 03:52 PM
07/31/21 03:52 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,764
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Hopkins Market Day....






Re: Belize Weather Forecast: July 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #551861
08/01/21 04:14 AM
08/01/21 04:14 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,764
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Lightning in the Pretty Island. Photos by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

========================

Monthly Weather Summary, July 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

July typically is one of the months for the peak of tropical waves which is a contributor to the rainfall normally observed during the month. Rainfall is typically attributed to Upper-Level Troughs, Tropical waves and mid to upper-level lows which moves westward through the Caribbean. An average of three upper-level troughs, four mid to upper level low and eighteen tropical waves would pass over the country in July, however, only five tropical waves crossed the country with only one strong wave and a few dry spells were observed across most areas.

Conditions were relatively moist over the country for the first week of July in both the low and upper levels, with a light to moderate east to south-easterly surface airflow. Tropical Storm Elsa formed and was over the Northern Caribbean with a ridge pattern over the wider Caribbean. An inverted trough near Cuba and Jamaica resulted in a north-easterly upper-level flow which veered to the southwest after the trough moved west and an anticyclone moved into the area. Moisture advected over Belize due to the inverted trough and a tropical waved that crossed the country on July 4, produced a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly over central, southern, and coastal portions of the country. A weakly divergent pattern further enhanced showery activity on July 4 while neutral conditions persisted for the remainder of the week. The dry day during this week was on July 2.

Low level moisture decreased in week two, except for July 13 when a tropical wave crossed the country. At the upper levels, a patch of dry air prevailed through to July 10, then an increase in moisture was observed. Near the surface, the North Atlantic Ridge continued to be the dominant feature over the Caribbean Basin with a moderate east to south-easterly flow while an inverted trough over the western Caribbean produced a north-easterly flow and a convergent upper-level pattern up to July 10. These conditions supported mainly fair and windy weather with only isolated showers and thunderstorms, except for a few more over southern areas. The approach and passage of a tropical wave on July 13, supported by an upper-level ridge over Central America leading to a south-westerly flow and an increase in low and upper-level moisture and instability over the area. This wave produced showers and thunderstorms around the country enhanced by a weakly divergent upper-level pattern.

High pressure ridge persisted into week 3 with relatively dry conditions near the surface up to July 17, thereafter, low level moisture began to increase and remained moist until the end of the week. An east to north-easterly surface airflow prevailed throughout the week. Conditions at the upper levels were relatively moist for this week with an upper-level trough over the area, however, the upper-level pattern continued neutral expect for when a tropical wave passed the country. Fair weather prevailed on July 15 and 16 with an upper-level ridge over the area suppressing the development of any deep convective activity and only isolated showers and thunderstorms were observed on radar imagery, except for a few more over inland and southern areas of the 16th. Conditions became moist and unstable on July 17 as one of two tropical waves approached the area. The first wave crossed the country on July 18 and supported several outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms around the country with an extreme thunderstorm cell developing northwest of Sandhill village. The second wave crossed on July 20 with showers and thunderstorms continuing around the country, especially over central, southern and western areas and gusty low-level winds.

A light east to north-easterly surface airflow prevailed for most of the week becoming east to south-easterly flow on the last day of the month. This was as a result of a tropical wave and a TUTT induced trough near Belize and the Yucatan that reflected down to the surface. The week stated off relatively dry with low moisture levels near the surface and generally isolated showers and thunderstorms around the country. Moisture levels increased as the week progressed with the TUU/TI trough lingering over the area producing a weakly divergent upper-level pattern and providing outflow for the development of deep convection. On July 28, the TI/TW supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over most areas along with an isolated squall line mostly over the Cayo district. Showers and thunderstorms persisted into July 29 across the country with a temporary break on July 30 and only isolated showers and thunderstorms over central and offshore areas. Moist and unstable conditions prevailed to end the month with some showers and a few thunderstorms around the country as a result a moist south-westerly upper-level flow caused by the upper level TUTT and an upper-level trough over the country.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, despite the passage of several tropical waves and upper-level trough during the month that contributed to the rainfall, the country had a few dry spells with rainfall being concentrated mostly over central and northern areas. Thus, rainfall was normal to above normal over northern and central areas, except for the Belize district and below normal over the south. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show near normal to slightly above normal maximum/daytime and minimum/night-time temperatures for most the stations except for the Central Farm station where slightly below normal night-time temperatures was observed.

Monthly Rainfall Summary

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Monthly Maximum Temperatures

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Monthly Minimum Temperatures

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Rainfall Observed: July 2021 (mm)

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Rainfall Observed: July 2021 (% Above/Below Average)

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