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Belize Weather Forecast: August 17, 2021

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear in the north more clouds in the south. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Generally fair prevails with a light easterly airflow.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny skies today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated.
Winds: E-SE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight - Light Chop
Waves: 1-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Wednesday is for partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing mainly over northern areas and then a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur over most areas Wednesday night.
Sargassum Forecast from August 12 to August 18: There is a high chance that additional sargassum mats will affect beaches across the country in the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 6:00am newly formed Tropical Storm Henri was located near 30.5N latitude 64.0W longitude or about 130 miles SSE of Bermuda. Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 32.3N 85.0W, or about 15 miles SSW of Columbus Georgia. Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.2N 76.1W, or about 120 miles East of Montego Bay Jamaica. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There are three tropical waves in the Atlantic, and one in the Caribbean plus Tropical Storm Grace.

Outside of the wind field of Grace, overnight ASCAT data passes showed moderate to fresh winds in the eastern and central Caribbean and light to gentle trades in the western Caribbean, pulsing to moderate in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5-7 ft in the east- central Caribbean, 4-6 ft near the Windward Islands, 3-5 ft near the Leeward Islands and in the west-central Caribbean, and 3 ft or less in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, recently upgraded Tropical Storm Grace near 18.2N 75.4W 1005 mb at 5 AM EDT is moving W at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Grace will move to near 18.6N 77.6W this afternoon, to near 19.1N 80.7W late tonight, to near 19.7N 83.9W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 20.4N 87.0W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and inland the northern Yucatan Peninsula near 21.0N 90.0W Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, fresh to strong northeast to east trades will be over the central Caribbean will Tue through Wed night.

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Across the Atlantic tropical basin, we are monitoring three tropical systems: Fred, Grace and newly formed Tropical Storm Henri

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall near Cape San Blas, Florida, at 3:13 p.m. EDT Monday.

Tropical Storm Grace remains on a westward track across the northern Caribbean Sea. Grace will continue westward across the Caribbean on Wednesday, likely tracking south of Cuba, before then nearing and possibly passing across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. Depending on the exact track later next week and next weekend, rain can move into eastern Mexico and perhaps southern-most Texas, but exactly where the heaviest rain falls has yet to be determined.

Although some weakening may occur as Grace crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, Grace is expected to re-strengthen into a hurricane as it tracks over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Wind gusts of 70-90 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax� of 100 mph are possible near where Grace makes landfall over northern Mexico.

Finally, Tropical Storm Henri is tracking slowly southward over the open waters of the Atlantic to the east of Bermuda. Henri will be slow-moving over the next few days as it loops to the south, then west and then north around Bermuda in a clockwise fashion. Shower activity will be enhanced across Bermuda during the next few days and depending on how close it tracks to the islands, locally gusty winds may also occur.

We are also watching a few tropical waves, either across the tropical Atlantic or emerging off the African Coast this week, but development with these seems unlikely at this time.