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Belize Weather Forecast: August 17, 2021 #552098
08/17/21 06:14 AM
08/17/21 06:14 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,141
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: August 17, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear in the north more clouds in the south. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Generally fair prevails with a light easterly airflow.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny skies today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated.
Winds: E-SE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight - Light Chop
Waves: 1-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Wednesday is for partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing mainly over northern areas and then a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur over most areas Wednesday night.
Sargassum Forecast from August 12 to August 18: There is a high chance that additional sargassum mats will affect beaches across the country in the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 6:00am newly formed Tropical Storm Henri was located near 30.5N latitude 64.0W longitude or about 130 miles SSE of Bermuda. Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 32.3N 85.0W, or about 15 miles SSW of Columbus Georgia. Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.2N 76.1W, or about 120 miles East of Montego Bay Jamaica. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There are three tropical waves in the Atlantic, and one in the Caribbean plus Tropical Storm Grace.

Outside of the wind field of Grace, overnight ASCAT data passes showed moderate to fresh winds in the eastern and central Caribbean and light to gentle trades in the western Caribbean, pulsing to moderate in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5-7 ft in the east- central Caribbean, 4-6 ft near the Windward Islands, 3-5 ft near the Leeward Islands and in the west-central Caribbean, and 3 ft or less in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, recently upgraded Tropical Storm Grace near 18.2N 75.4W 1005 mb at 5 AM EDT is moving W at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Grace will move to near 18.6N 77.6W this afternoon, to near 19.1N 80.7W late tonight, to near 19.7N 83.9W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 20.4N 87.0W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and inland the northern Yucatan Peninsula near 21.0N 90.0W Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, fresh to strong northeast to east trades will be over the central Caribbean will Tue through Wed night.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
27° C
80° F
Inland 35° C
95° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 29° C
84° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
Low: 12:22 PM High: 7:23 PM
Low: 11:04 PM High: 5:38 AM (Wed)
Sunrise: 5:36 AM Moonrise: 2:15 PM
Sunset: 6:17 PM Moonset: 1:34 AM (Wed)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Across the Atlantic tropical basin, we are monitoring three tropical systems: Fred, Grace and newly formed Tropical Storm Henri

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall near Cape San Blas, Florida, at 3:13 p.m. EDT Monday.

Tropical Storm Grace remains on a westward track across the northern Caribbean Sea. Grace will continue westward across the Caribbean on Wednesday, likely tracking south of Cuba, before then nearing and possibly passing across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. Depending on the exact track later next week and next weekend, rain can move into eastern Mexico and perhaps southern-most Texas, but exactly where the heaviest rain falls has yet to be determined.

Although some weakening may occur as Grace crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, Grace is expected to re-strengthen into a hurricane as it tracks over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Wind gusts of 70-90 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph are possible near where Grace makes landfall over northern Mexico.

Finally, Tropical Storm Henri is tracking slowly southward over the open waters of the Atlantic to the east of Bermuda. Henri will be slow-moving over the next few days as it loops to the south, then west and then north around Bermuda in a clockwise fashion. Shower activity will be enhanced across Bermuda during the next few days and depending on how close it tracks to the islands, locally gusty winds may also occur.

We are also watching a few tropical waves, either across the tropical Atlantic or emerging off the African Coast this week, but development with these seems unlikely at this time.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 17, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552099
08/17/21 06:15 AM
08/17/21 06:15 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,141
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later today. It could hit hurricane force before landfall.

At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located about 165 miles (265 km) east of Montego Bay, Jamaica. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move near the northern coast of Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands tonight, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds recently reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft were near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico late Wednesday and early Thursday.

Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

- Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 17, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552100
08/17/21 06:27 AM
08/17/21 06:27 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,531
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning the weather is perfect for anything.

FB_IMG_1624275105883.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 17, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552101
08/17/21 08:06 AM
08/17/21 08:06 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,141
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
The easterly Caribbean winds are back to normal over Belize, but further out at sea, the are already turning down as a result of TROPICAL STORM GRACE which, looks as if it will be closer to Belize than originally forecasted to do. We will almost certainly get cloud from it, probably in a day or two's time.

Today
Today will be mainly sunny, clouds are already starting to build, there are a few small rain showers around, there may well be more, later this morning, into the afternoon.

Tonight
Probably some cloud, too early to tell as yet.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 78°F Yesterday max. 34°C 94°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

TROPICAL STORM GRACE could have some affect on our weather in the next few days.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 17, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552102
08/17/21 09:47 AM
08/17/21 09:47 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,141
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Crown Weather:

During Wednesday, Grace is expected to approach the northern Yucatan Peninsula and the combination of favorable environmental conditions and an expected better structure could lead to some significant strengthening before it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. This means that I think that Grace will probably be a hurricane when it affects the northern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel on Wednesday night. As for strength, I’m thinking Grace may be about a 95 to 110 mph hurricane when it makes landfall on the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night.

Hurricane conditions with wind gusts of up to 100 to perhaps 110 mph and 5 to 10 inches of rainfall is expected across the northern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel on Wednesday night into Thursday. A storm surge of up to 3 to 6 feet is expected along the coast of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night into Thursday.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 17, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552108
08/17/21 12:03 PM
08/17/21 12:03 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,141
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Mostly clear skies, a few more clouds in the south. Clear and sunny in San Pedro. Generally fair weather will continue over the area for the next 24 hours... Then an increase in moisture and instability expected over the area in the next few days.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, except for slight more over inland areas this afternoon and south tonight.

Outlook: A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur Wednesday afternoon mainly over the south, increasing and spreading over most areas Wednesday night through to midday on Thursday.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Grace is now predicted to strengthen to a Hurricane by landfall. She's to our north (currently about 18 degrees N) - or projected to be. The track was sliding south for a few days but has been more stable the last 24 hours.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Site preparation for private development underway on Bayshore Drive, south end, Corozal. Photo by the Corozal Daily

[Linked Image]

Good morning from beautiful iHopkins Village. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 17, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552109
08/17/21 01:48 PM
08/17/21 01:48 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,141
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
They still think Grace is on track for Cancun or Merida, but they now think it will strengthen into a hurricane. If its cloud pattern of now is similar when it gets near, then the heavy rain clouds could be well over Belize.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 17, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552110
08/17/21 05:49 PM
08/17/21 05:49 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,141
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Current Grace tracking maps... Predicted to be a category one hurricane at landfall, well north of us...

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Getting nearer, and some of its cloud will be over Belize, some time tomorrow I expect.

[Linked Image]

Updated Flood Report and Forecast for August 17, 2021

River Conditions
REGION 7 - Levels recorded today on the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman and Douglas to the Coast are normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER levels are normal and falling at Tower Hill and Caledonia.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities are above the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels are below the low- level bridge and steady. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town is below normal and steady.

On the BELIZE RIVER, below normal and steady levels were recorded at Double Run. The CROOKED TREE LAGOON remains below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - Levels recorded on the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is normal and steady. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. River levels in watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS is below normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is near normal and steady. The Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER is above normal and decreasing slowly. Levels on the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is below normal and falling slowly. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia, levels are normal and steady; and at Big Falls South, levels are above normal and falling slowly. On the MOHO RIVER, levels at Blue Creek South are normal and falling slowly; and at Jordan, levels are above normal and slowly falling. Levels recorded on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is above normal and falling slowly.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are above normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

Residents in Regions 7 and 9 are asked to remain vigilant and monitor the river levels for possible flooding conditions. Our next Flood Report and Forecast to be issued on August 18, 2021 will provide more guidance.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 17, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552115
08/18/21 04:34 AM
08/18/21 04:34 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,141
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
New Diner on the beach, Northside Hopkins.
Mel's Diner By The Sea
(Castillo Store beach)

Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]


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