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Hurricane Grace #552112
08/18/21 04:28 AM
08/18/21 04:28 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,108
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
NEMO Advisory #1

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public that at midday Tropical Storm Grace was centered near 18.5N latitude, 77.5W west longitude moving just north of due west at 15mph with max sustain winds of 50mph and minimum, the central pressure of 1005MB. Grace is almost due west of Corozal town and based on the forecast it should continue to gain some northward latitude before making landfall somewhere between Playa del Carmen and Tulum, Mexico late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a category 1 hurricane. It is forecasted to make landfall north of Belize. The country will be on the calmer side of the system.

The current forecast indicates the wind speed will be between 10 to 20 knots. Showers and thunderstorms will increase especially over the northern half of the country on Wednesday night and persist through to Saturday. Total rainfall throughout this period is forecasted to be around 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts. As a result, flooding is possible in low-lying areas. Winds are likely to become gusty during showers and thunderstorms and sea conditions will become rough later on Wednesday due mostly to northerly swells. A small craft warning will likely be in place.

At the time of this advisory, a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch, or Warning is not required for Belize. We continue to monitor very closely to verify that this system gains latitude.

The public is advised to remain vigilant and to closely monitor the system even though the models, at this time, are predicting that Grace will not be a direct threat to Belize. It is in our zone and these systems can be unpredictable so out of precaution it must be monitored closely. This advisory is issued as a precaution due to the proximity and the direction of movement of Tropical Storm Grace.

The NEMO Emergency Hotline is 936. NEMO Emergency Operations Centre (EOCs) from Belize City northwards will be partially activated by 8:00 a.m., on Wednesday, August 2021 to monitor Tropical Storm Grace, to be prepared for full activation and response actions.

We are approaching the peak period of the hurricane season all are reminded to review their Hurricane plan, and to make arrangements for early movement to safety when NEMO advises the public to evacuate. The public is advised to stay alert. Please take action based on your plan, and as advised by the official release from the National Met Service and NEMO.

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Re: Hurricane Grace [Re: Marty] #552113
08/18/21 04:28 AM
08/18/21 04:28 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,108
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Getting nearer, and some of its cloud will be over Belize, some time today I expect.

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Tropical Storm Grace is forecast to become a hurricane by midday Wednesday. The system in the Atlantic Basin has already brought torrential rains and damages to Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba. Its projected path shows it passing over the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico which would impact northern Belize. According to the Chief MET Officer, Ronald Gordon, he and his team have been monitoring the system over the past few days.



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At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 80.9 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Cayman Islands later this morning. Grace will approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A reporting station near Rum Point Beach on the north shore of Grand Cayman recently measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Grace earlier this morning observed a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 61 kt in the northeastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface wind speeds of 50-52 kt. The aircraft measured a central pressure of about 1000 mb, a reading that had been steady for about 3 hours. Those data were the basis for maintaining the 0600 UTC intensity at 50 kt. Since the last recon mission, however, deep convection has increased markedly over the low-level center, with cloud tops exceeding -75 deg C. Although the center is just inside the western edge of convective cloud canopy due to modest west-northwesterly vertical wind shear, Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt. These intensity estimates, along with the increase in convection over the center is the justification for increasing the 0900 UTC advisory intensity to 55 kt.

Grace has been maintaining a steady course north of due west, or 280/14 kt for more than 18 hours. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to keep Grace moving in direction between west and west-northwest through the 96-hour forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance remain in strong agreement on Grace making landfall along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico shortly after the 24-hour forecast period, followed by a motion across the peninsula and emerging over the Bay of Campeche around 36 hours. Thereafter, the model guidance begins to diverge, with the HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC regional models along the northern side of the guidance envelope, the GFS and UKMET global models down the middle, and the ECMWF model along the southern edge of the guidance suite. The new NHC forecast lies close to the previous advisory track and the consensus models TVCA and HCCA, which are a little south of the FSSE consensus model.

Although the upper-level wind environment isn't ideal for rapid strengthening, it is conducive enough for steady strengthening to occur due to the flow forecast to be strongly diffluent. Sea-surface temperatures are expected to be near 30 deg C and the water is also deep and warm, which should prevent any cold upwelling from occurring beneath the cyclone. As a result, a peak intensity of 75 kt just prior to landfall has been carried over from the previous advisory, which is a little above all of the 0600 UTC intensity guidance. Although Grace will weaken substantially after passing over the Yucatan peninsula, restrengthening is expected over the warm waters of thew Bay of Campeche in the 48-72- hour period where the upper-level flow regime is forecast to be more conducive for intensification. Dissipation is now expected over the mountains of central Mexico by 120 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids at 36 hours and beyond.

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Grace Will Blow Past Belize

Belize is not under hurricane watch.

That's despite the presence of Grace, a tropical storm currently raging across the Caribbean sea.

The storm which is currently about 50 miles west of Jamaica and about 185 miles East southeast of Grand Cayman and is moving just north of due west with sustained maximum winds of 50mph.

At this rate, it should make landfall between Playa Del Carmen and Tulum, Mexico late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a category 1 hurricane.

That's north of Belize so forecasts say we will be on the calmer side of the system.

At the time of tonight's advisory, neither a Tropical storm watch nor warning is required for Belize. But the MET service will continue to watch the system closely.

Channel 7



For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Hurricane Grace [Re: Marty] #552123
08/18/21 09:33 AM
08/18/21 09:33 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,108
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
NEMO ADVISORY NUMBER 2

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public that at 6am Tropical Storm Grace was centered near 19.1 north latitude, 81.4 west longitude moving west-northwest at 16mph with maximum sustained winds of 65mph and minimum central pressure of 993mb. Grace is about 460 miles east by north of Corozal Town and about 459 miles east-northeast of Belize City. Grace is still forecasted to make landfall north of Belize near Tulum, Mexico early on Thursday morning as a hurricane.

This system will produce an increase in rainfall over the country of Belize with showers and thunderstorms increasing especially over the northern half of the country on Wednesday night and persisting through the weekend. Total rainfall throughout this period is forecasted to be around 1 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts. As a result, flooding is possible in low-lying and flood prone areas. Winds over the north an offshore areas are forecasted to be between 15 and 25 knots with higher gusts during heavy showers and thunderstorms. The combination of gusty winds and large waves will result in rough sea conditions later on Wednesday through to Friday. Therefore, a small craft warning will likely be in place.

At the time of this advisory, a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch, or Warning is not required for Belize. We continue to monitor very closely to verify that this system continues to gain latitude. The public is advised to remain vigilant and to closely monitor the system as these systems can be unpredictable.

The NEMO Emergency Hotline is 936. NEMO Emergency Operations Centre (E0Cs) from Belize City northwards will be partially activated by 8:00 a.m., on Wednesday, August 2021 to monitor Tropical Storm Grace, to be prepared for full activation and response actions.

We are approaching the peak period of the hurricane season all are reminded to review their Hurricane plan, and to make arrangements for early movement to safety when NEMO advises the public to evacuate. The public is advised to stay alert. Please take action based on your plan, and as advised by the official release from the National Met Service and NEMO.

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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

LOCATION...19.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

Grace is becoming better organized on satellite images with a comma-shaped cloud pattern, and the upper-level outflow remains well defined. Wind gusts well into the hurricane-force range were measured on Grand Cayman earlier this morning, along with some damage on the island. Recent flight-level and SFMR observations from both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support sustained 65-kt surface winds, so the system is being upgraded to a hurricane on this advisory.

Although Grace is situated over waters of very high oceanic heat content, moderate northwesterly shear and only marginally moist mid-level air could slightly impede intensification. However, some additional strengthening is expected before landfall tonight or early Thursday. Weakening will occur due to Grace's passage over Yucatan, although that land mass has relatively low terrain. Reintensification is anticipated over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and the system should regain hurricane strength before reaching the east coast of mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is similar to the numerical model consensus.

Grace has been moving west-northwestward near 13 kt. A prominent mid-tropospheric ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of the cyclone for the next several days. This pattern should keep steering Grace on a west-northwestward to westward track for 72-96 hours. The track guidance models are in excellent agreement and little change has been made to the NHC track forecast compared to the previous few packages.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for a portion of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico later today.

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Re: Hurricane Grace [Re: Marty] #552129
08/18/21 10:19 AM
08/18/21 10:19 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,108
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Tropical Storm Grace advisory 2 currently poses no threat to Belize. Please stay alert and have your family emergency plan ready!

Grace has begun to move more northward overnight and we have more confidence now that this system will indeed make landfall north of our borders. At 6am Tropical Storm Grace was centered near 19.1 N, 81.4W moving WNW at 16mph with max sustained winds of 65mph and min central pressure of 993mb. Grace is about 460 miles east by north of Corozal Town and about 459 miles east-northeast of Belize City. Grace is still forecasted to make landfall north of Belize near Tulum, Mexico early on Thurs morning as a hurricane.

It will produce an increase in rainfall over the country of Belize with showers and thunderstorms increasing especially over the northern half of the country on Wed night and persisting through the weekend. Total rainfall throughout this period is forecasted to be around 1 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts. As a result, flooding is possible in low-lying and flood prone areas. Winds will be around 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts.

NEMO Belize Rural South

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook: click here

Re: Hurricane Grace [Re: Marty] #552134
08/18/21 05:28 PM
08/18/21 05:28 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,108
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Cloud from the outer bands of Hurricane Grace over Ambergris Caye. Photo by Kimberly Gonzalez

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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

LOCATION...19.7N 83.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

A ragged eye appeared for a while on visible satellite imagery, but it has recently been obscured by cumulonimbus tops. The overall cloud pattern has been maintaining its organization with some convective banding features and very cold cloud tops, mainly over the eastern portion of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 70 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane in a few hours to provide another intensity estimate.

Grace will continue to move over waters of very high oceanic heat content prior to reaching the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, which of course favors intensification. Aside from moderate northwesterly shear, a possible impediment to strengthening is a northeast to southwest-oriented shear axis located just to the northwest of the hurricane. Nonetheless, some intensification is anticipated before landfall in Yucatan, with restrengthening over the Bay of Campeche. The official intensity forecast continues to be in general agreement with the multi-model consensus predictions, IVCN and HCCA.

Grace is moving west-northwestward, or about 285/14 kt. There has been essentially no change to the track forecast philosophy. Grace should maintain a west-northwestward to westward motion, on the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge, for the next several days. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and about on top of the latest multi-model consensus, TVCA.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for a portion of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico tonight.

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Accuweather:

Hurricane Grace is tracking across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and is expected to pass near or just south of the Cayman Islands today. Flooding downpours and strong, gusty winds will impact the islands today. As Grace continues to track through the northwestern Caribbean Sea, it will move through a favorable environment for additional strengthening. Grace could even become a Category 2 hurricane (maximum-sustained winds of 96-110 mph) prior to landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. Flooding rainfall and damaging winds will impact the northern Yucatan Peninsula later tonight through Thursday as Grace continues to track westward.

While over the Yucatan Peninsula, Grace is expected to lose some wind intensity prior to re-emerging over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night. Once back over warm waters, Grace is expected to reintensify into a hurricane prior to making a second landfall over eastern Mexico early Saturday. Grace is expected to produce damaging winds and flooding rainfall to eastern Mexico over the weekend. Rainfall of 4-8 inches will fall over eastern Mexico later this week and weekend with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches. This can lead to flooding and mudslides across the region.

Grace will continue to gain wind intensity before making landfall early Thursday morning over the Yucatan Peninsula. Wind gusts of 120 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 135 mph are possible near where Grace makes landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of this magnitude can lead to widespread power outages and structural damage. Although loss of wind intensity will occur as Grace crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, Grace is expected to restrengthen into a hurricane as it tracks over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Wind gusts of 70-90 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph are possible near where Grace makes landfall over eastern Mexico.

Hurricane Grace


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Re: Hurricane Grace [Re: Marty] #552140
08/18/21 07:04 PM
08/18/21 07:04 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,108
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Current position


Hurricane Headed For Yucatan, Mexico Suffers, Belize Spared

Tonight Hurricane Grace is a category 1 storm, expected to make landfall between Playa Del Carmen and Tulum, Mexico in a few hours.

The storm has not deviated from the path which experts forecasted, and so, Belize is not at risk of experiencing hurricane conditions - and there are no warnings or watches in effect. But, meteorologists say that Belizeans, especially those living in the northern districts, should brace for quite a bit of rain, which is expected to last well into the weekend.

This afternoon, we spoke to Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon via Zoom to discuss the expected impacts of the storm on Belize:

Ronald Gordon - Chief Meteorologist

"As of Midday, the system is about 360 miles east by north of Corozal Town, and about 368 miles east northeast of Belize City. The Hurricane - it's already a hurricane - is heading to the west-northwest at 15 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour. Additional strengthening is forecasted, and there is the possibility that Grace could be a minimal category 2 hurricane at the time of landfall. Landfall is forecast to occur on the Mexican side of the Yucatan Peninsula, somewhere near Playa Del Carmen, or between Tulum and Playa Del Carmen. That should occur tomorrow morning at about 6 or so more or less, or maybe a little bit before that time. In terms of the threat to us. We notice that the system is going further north, therefore, it will make landfall north of the country of Belize. The landfalling system in our area that occurs north of you means that you are on the better side of that system. The winds are not going to be as strong, and also, a hazard, for example like storm surge, is not going to affect persons on the southern side of a landfalling hurricane in our area. So, right away, we know that storm surge is not a threat to us. What can we expect then? The system is, like I said, a bit north of us. The radius of winds on the southern typically does not extend as far out. So, we are not looking at tropical storm-force winds over us. The latest that we have seen is for us to get about 15 to 25 nautal-mile winds and possibly higher gusts in showers and thunderstorms. Also, importantly, those winds are not forecasted to occur well after the system has moved further west over Yucatan when we develop a southeasterly airflow behind that system. The other hazard that we are on the lookout for is rainfall. We cannot avoid that. The latest projection is calling for 1 to 4 inches of rainfall associated with this system, and that is stretched out over a period from about tonight through to about Saturday, maybe even into Sunday. However, we cannot discount the potential for a feeder band to cross us and dumping heavier rainfall than that. So, that is a possibility, and that leads me to what alerts are we issuing. Well, number 1, let me repeat, we are not under a hurricane watch or a hurricane warning. We are not under a tropical storm watch or a tropical storm warning, precisely because the system is making landfall well to the north of us, and therefore, we do not expect to be in tropical storm or hurricane-force winds. So, let me discount that once and for all. The alerts that we have issued are for 2 things, the possibility of localized flooding and that is is associated with the rainfall that I mentioned, and also the potential for heavier rainfall in the feeder bands into the system. Another alert is for small craft warning, and that is likely to go into effect tonight."

The latest report from the National Hurricane Center indicates that Hurricane Grace has gained a little strength. Its maximum sustained winds are now at 80 miles per hour.

Channel 5

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Re: Hurricane Grace [Re: Marty] #552141
08/19/21 04:13 AM
08/19/21 04:13 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,108
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

LOCATION...20.0N 87.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

After a brief convective hiatus between 0400-0700 UTC, deep convection in the inner-core region has increased and become better organized during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Grace more than 4 hours ago reported a central pressure of 986 mb -- down 2 mb from previous passes -- and a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 74 kt on its last leg northbound around 0500 UTC. The 74-kt flight-level wind equates to about a 67-kt surface wind speed. These data supported maintaining a 70-kt intensity at 0600 UTC. The upper-level outflow remains symmetrical and has been expanding somewhat over the past few hours.

The initial motion is 280/15 kt based on the earlier recon fixes and passive microwave satellite data. Grace should continue to move generally westward for the next 48 hours, crossing the coast of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula within the next couple of hours, followed by a track across the Yucatan and emergence over the Bay of Campeche by 24 hours, with a subsequent landfall along the eastern coast of mainland Mexico shortly after the 48-hour forecast period. This track scenario is consistent with the latest 0000 UTC global and regional models, which show the strong deep-layer ridge to the north of Grace maintaining its expansive presence across the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and northern Mexico. After the second landfall, Grace is expected to turn west-southwestward and dissipate over the mountains of central Mexico by 72 hours. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies along the northern edge of the tightly packed consensus track models.

Given the recent improvement in Grace's inner-core convective structure noted in high-resolution infrared satellite imagery, some slight strengthening to 75 kt could still occur just prior to landfall this morning. Weakening will commence once Grace moves inland over Yucatan, with re-strengthening expected after the cyclone emerges over the Bay of Campeche where the vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt. Grace is expected to be a hurricane when the second landfall occurs along the coast of mainland Mexico, with the cyclone possibly reaching a peak intensity of 75 kt shortly after the 48-hour period. After final landfall in mainland Mexico, Grace should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by 72 hours, if not sooner. The remnants of Grace are expected to emerge over the eastern North Pacific and possibly re-develop there, but the uncertainty of whether this will be the original center or a new center precludes forecast points over the Pacific at this time.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for portions of the Hurricane Watch area of mainland Mexico later this morning or afternoon.

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Hurricane Grace makes its way toward Mexico and Northern Belize



Belize to Experience Heavy Rains, Possible Flooding

Tropical storm winds are not expected, but the country will be impacted by rains, especially northern Belize starting tonight. There is also the possibility of flooding across the country. Chief Meteorologist Gordon goes into more details on warnings for the country and for residents to stay alert.

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist, National Meteorological Service


“In the country of Belize, we are expecting that winds could be moderate – fifteen to twenty-five knots mainly in the north and offshore areas; possibly higher gusts in showers and thunderstorms. We expect that our seas will become rough, not only because of large waves or swells that the system will be stirring up as it is coming into the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, locally, we have already issued a small craft caution and that is likely to be upgraded to a small craft warning later tonight. The other impact that we expect is there to be an increase in rainfall. Current projections are for there to be about one to four inches of rainfall throughout tonight and into the next few days; actually until about Saturday or so. And the northern part of the country will be seeing the higher amounts, however, we are issuing a flood watch for the entire country of Belize because there is the possibility that even though I am saying one to four inches, you can have localized, higher amounts in feeder bands and thunderstorms. So those could lead to localised flooding and hence we are issuing an alert countrywide for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood-prone areas of the country.”


Channel 5

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Re: Hurricane Grace [Re: Marty] #552152
08/19/21 05:22 AM
08/19/21 05:22 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,108
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
...GRACE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR TULUM...

Satellite images and radar data from Belize indicate that Hurricane Grace made landfall along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula around 4:45 a.m. CDT just south of Tulum, Mexico.

A Weatherflow station at Xcaret Park near Playa del Carmen, Mexico, recently measured a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h). Another Weatherflow station located at Cancun, Mexico, recently measured a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a gust to 80 mph (129 km/h), while the Weatherflow site located at Puerto Morelos, Mexico, recently measured a sustained wind of 51 mph (83 km/h) a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h). On Cozumel, a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) was observed at the Cozumel Lighthouse.

SUMMARY OF 445 AM CDT...0945 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...20.1N 87.5W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

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Re: Hurricane Grace [Re: Marty] #552158
08/19/21 10:39 AM
08/19/21 10:39 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,108
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Crown Weather:

Grace made landfall along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula at around 5:45 am EDT/4:45 am CDT this morning just south of Tulum, Mexico. It is expected that Grace will exit the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche by about mid-afternoon today. Its structure when it moves off of the Yucatan Peninsula will be very important in terms of how strong it could get when it moves across the Bay of Campeche and towards eastern Mexico. If it weakens and becomes disorganized looking, then some strengthening would probably occur and we’d be looking at maybe an 75-90 mph hurricane when it makes landfall on Friday night. On the other hand, if Grace emerges in the Bay of Campeche with a core intact, then much more strengthening would become plausible and I think we’d be looking at an 110-125 mph hurricane at landfall.

At this point, I think that Grace will move from east to west across the northern Bay of Campeche beginning later this afternoon and continuing through tonight and Friday. It appears that Grace will probably make landfall in eastern Mexico near or just south of Tuxpan late Friday night. In addition, looking at satellite imagery, it appears that Grace seems to be maintaining a core and doesn’t really appear to be weakening a whole lot. Because of this, I think that we could see a landfall intensity of about 100 to 110 mph or so with the slight chance for Grace making landfall as a 120 mph hurricane.

Once Grace makes landfall in eastern Mexico late Friday night, it will quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by later Saturday or Sunday.

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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

LOCATION...20.2N 88.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

Grace made landfall as a hurricane near Tulum, Mexico around 0945 UTC (445am CDT). A storm chaser in Tulum reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb at the time of landfall. Since then, the cyclone has moved further inland where observations are far more sparse, and we have no recent in situ observations to assist the intensity analysis. The intensity is therefore set at 55 kt, based in part on the inland decay wind model built into the SHIPS model. The central pressure estimate of 995 mb is likewise uncertain.

Some additional weakening is likely this afternoon while Grace continues to cross the Yucatan peninsula. The tropical storm should emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico this evening, and re-strengthening is anticipated shortly thereafter. Environmental conditions are expected to be quite conducive for strengthening, but it will likely take Grace at least a little time to redevelop its inner-core after disruption by land. That could act to limit the rate at which the cyclone will intensify at first. The HWRF and HMON both suggest that the most significant reintensification could occur in the last 12 hours before final landfall occurs in mainland Mexico, and that scenario seems likely. It would not be surprising if Grace strengthened slightly more between the 36 h forecast point over water and the 48 h point inland, particularly if the hurricane moves slightly slower, giving it more time over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, Grace should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Overall, the NHC intensify forecast is very similar to the previous advisory.

Grace continues to move to the west near 16 kt. A westward or west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 12 hours or so, after which a strong-deep layer ridge extending well over the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern U.S. will steer Grace westward until landfall. Only minor adjustments were made to the official track forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. Although the tropical cyclone will quickly dissipate after it moves inland, the ridge will likely steer its remnants further westward toward the eastern North Pacific, where it could contribute to the formation of a new tropical cyclone there.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here


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White Sands Dive Shop - 5 Star PADI Dive Facility - Daily diving, SCUBA instruction and Snorkeling
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We handle all aspects of the purchase of your Real Estate in Belize. From in depth property searches to your final closing.
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Lil Alphonse has snorkel equipment to fit anyone as well as Marine Park Tickets and flotation devices to assist those not as experienced.
Coastal Xpress offers a daily scheduled ferry run to most resorts, restaurants and private piers on the island of Anbergris Caye. We also offer  private and charter water taxi service.
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