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Belize Weather Forecast: August 18, 2021 #552120
08/18/21 06:04 AM
08/18/21 06:04 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,178
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: August 18, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear throughout the country. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Conditions are expected to become more moist and unstable over the area during the next few days.
Advisories: Small craft warmining likely to go into effect tonight.
24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny skies today, showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, except for few more over northern and central areas this morning and south tonight.
Winds: N-NE, 0-10 kts
Sea State: Light Chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 87
Outlook: For Thursday and Thursday night is for a few showers and thunderstorms increasing around the country.
Sargassum Forecast from August 17 to August 25: Satellite imagery suggests that sargassum concentration has decreased slightly over the area. However, there is a low to medium chance of additional sargassum mats drifting into the area during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.8N, longitude 80.9W, or about 40 miles SSE of Grand, Cayman. Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.1N, longitude 65.7W, or about 160 miles SSW of Bermuda. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, and two in the Caribbean plus Tropical Storm Grace.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 100 miles of the NW coast of Colombia and between the Cayman islands and W Cuba. Outside of the wind field of Tropical Storm Grace, recent scatterometer satellite data show strong to near gale-force trade in the south-central Caribbean Sea, especially within 90 nm of the NW coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong trades are noted in the rest of the central and E Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are found in the rest of the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft in the central and E Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Grace near 18.8N 80.9W 998 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Grace will move to 19.3N 83.2W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.9N 86.4W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 75 kt guts 90 kt, and weaken to a tropical storm inland the northern Yucatan Peninsula Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades will be over the central Caribbean through early Thu.


  High Low
Coastal 32° C
90° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 37° C
98° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 28° C
82° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
High: 5:38 AM Low: 1:26 PM
High: 8:31 PM Low: 12:17 AM (Thu)
Sunrise: 5:36 AM Moonrise: 3:19 PM
Sunset: 6:16 PM Moonset: 2:35 AM (Thu)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Storm Grace is tracking across western Jamaica and, given Grace's proximity to land, only modest strengthening is expected through Tuesday evening, but conditions south of Cuba will likely support a faster rate of intensification tonight. As a result, only minor wind damage is anticipated across Jamaica with a higher threat for damaging winds over the Cayman Islands tonight. Grace is expected to become a hurricane Wednesday morning and should make make landfall early Thursday morning over the the Yucatan Peninsula. Grace will make a second landfall, likely as a hurricane, along the central Mexican coast Saturday morning. Grace will be a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the Caribbean and Mexico due to damaging winds across the Yucatan and flooding rain along Grace's path.

Winds will gradually diminish across southwest Haiti as Grace tracks across Jamaica and away from Hispaniola. Grace will gain wind intensity later Tuesday night as it moves away from Jamaica and it can reach hurricane status (maximum sustained winds 74 mph or greater) near the Cayman Islands Wednesday morning. Grace will continue to gain wind intensity before making landfall early Thursday morning over the Yucatan Peninsula. Wind gusts of 120 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 135 mph are possible near where Grace makes landfall. Winds of this magnitude can lead to widespread power outages and structural damage. Although loss of wind intensity will occur as Grace crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, Grace is expected to re-strengthen into a hurricane as it tracks over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Wind gusts of 70-90 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph are possible near where Grace makes landfall over northern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Henri is maintaining its strength as it tracks south of Bermuda. Henri is forecast to track around Bermuda in a clockwise fashion. Shower activity will be enhanced across Bermuda during the next few days with the strongest squalls bringing gusty winds as well. Henri will also create increased swells and rough surf around Bermuda. Given relatively little impact overall, outside of ponding of water in poor drainage areas, Henri will be a less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Bermuda.

We are also watching a few tropical waves, either across the tropical Atlantic or emerging off the African coast this week, but development with these seems unlikely at this time.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 18, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552121
08/18/21 06:04 AM
08/18/21 06:04 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,178
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
For more on Tropical Storm Grace, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 18, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552122
08/18/21 06:29 AM
08/18/21 06:29 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,532
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the North at 8 mph creating a calm sea condition around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is set at 90 f.

FB_IMG_1629243870381.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 18, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552124
08/18/21 09:35 AM
08/18/21 09:35 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,178
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
How's this for a breakfast view? We had an 8:30am breakfast at gorgeous Matachica Resort...have I told you about their baked goods? But then on the way to town...just about an hour or so later...rain! I think the very edges of Hurricane Grace which is aimed north of us - around Cozumel. Photo by San Pedro Scoop

[Linked Image]

It is coming our way, we are now seeing the outer bands of TROPICAL STORM GRACE which has clearly intensified over night, and I think, will become a hurricane today, moving fast towards Cun-can.

Today
Today will be patchy, a fair bit of sunshine for most, but central has a lot of thin cloud, a mixture of above ground fog and one band of cloud from the storm coming over, with a little bit of rain out at sea, no rain on land as yet. But the north will be getting the first significant band of rain coming in later this morning, within an hour or two. Then more significant areas of rain during the afternoon.

Tonight
Probably, more bands of rain are likely to come over Belize during the night. I suspect the only significant winds we will get, will be as a result of heavy areas of rain and not wind from the storm as such.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 28°C 82°F Yesterday max. 34°C 94°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

For more on Hurricane Grace, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 18, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552131
08/18/21 12:19 PM
08/18/21 12:19 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,178
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
The first significant band now coming across Belize with rain.

[Linked Image]

Present Condition: Mostly clear, cloudy in San Pedro and the northeast. Conditions are expected to become more moist and unstable during the next couple days.

*Heat alert: Residents, especially those inland are advised to stay hydrated and to avoid outdoor activity as much as possible.

*A small craft caution is in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. This will likely be upgraded to a small craft warning tonight. Operators of small crafts are advised to prepare to seek safe harbor, from large waves and rough seas.

*Flood watch: residents are advised to be alert over the next few days, for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas.


24hr Forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells this afternoon, becoming cloudy at times tonight and tomorrow morning. A few showers and thunderstorms will occur mostly over northern and central areas during the next 24 hours, but also over the south tonight.

Outlook: A few showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain will occur mostly over northern and inland areas Thursday afternoon, increasing and spreading to most areas of the country Thursday night into Friday morning.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Flood Report and Forecast for August 18, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - Levels recorded today on the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman and Douglas to the Coast are normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER levels are normal and steady at Tower Hill and Caledonia.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and steady. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town is below normal and steady.

On the BELIZE RIVER, below normal and steady levels were recorded at Double Run. The CROOKED TREE LAGOON remains below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - Levels recorded on the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is normal and steady. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. River levels in watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS is normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is near normal and steady. The Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER is normal and decreasing. Levels on the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is below normal and falling slowly. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia, levels are normal and falling; and at Big Falls South, levels are near normal and falling slowly. On the MOHO RIVER, levels at Blue Creek South are below normal and falling; and at Jordan, levels are near normal and slowly falling. Levels recorded on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is near normal and steady.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, San Antonio, San Roman, Santa Cruz and Douglas to the Coast, no significant change in river levels is expected through Thursday then levels are expected to increase through Friday morning as rainfall is expected to become more intense. On the NEW RIVER river levels is expected to increase to bankfull stage in the lower reaches including Caledonia; and at Tower Hill, river levels are expected to increase to above normal levels.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to increase and exceed the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to increase to bank full stage. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, river levels is expected to increase to above normal levels.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels is expected to increase to normal levels; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, no significant change in lagoon levels is expected.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels is expected to increase minimally. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels is expected to increase to above normal levels. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels is expected to increase to above normal levels. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, an increase in levels is expected. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and at Big Falls South, levels is expected to increase to above normal levels. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, levels is expected to increase to above normal levels. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, an increase in river levels is expected.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, above normal levels is expected.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON AUGUST 20, 2021

Grace's rain and thunder came fast and heavy bouncing our internet in and out a couple of times briefly. Photo by Tacogirl

[Linked Image]

For more on Hurricane Storm Grace, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 18, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552142
08/19/21 04:19 AM
08/19/21 04:19 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,178
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Pretty twilight hues after sunset this evening as light outer bands of rain from Hurricane Grace arrive. Photos by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Another beautiful night in Hopkins Village. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Splendidly beautiful. So happy this traditional art is being kept alive!



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