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Belize Weather Forecast: August 23, 2021 #552226
08/23/21 06:04 AM
08/23/21 06:04 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,041
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: August 23, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning as a tropical front moves through. Partly cloudy in San Pedro. Moist and unstable conditions lingering over the area.
Advisories: There is the possibility for flooding in low-lying and flood prone areas, especially over the Toledo District.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers, isolated thunderstorms and periods of rain this morning, decreasing this afternoon and re-developings mostly south and coast tonight.
Winds: E, 10-20 kts
Sea State: Moderate
Waves: 4-6 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Tuesday and Tuesday night is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, mostly south and coast.
Sargassum Forecast from August 17 to August 25: Satellite imagery suggests that sargassum concentration has decreased slightly over the area. However, there is a low to medium chance of additional sargassum mats drifting into the area during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There are three tropical waves in the Atlantic, and two in the Caribbean, and one over the Yucatan Peninsula.

The most recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia. Convection across the basin are related to the tropical waves.

The aerial extent of the trade winds will increase over the next 24 hours covering most of the waters S of 17N and E of 80W. As a result, fresh to strong trade winds are expected over the east and central Caribbean through midweek, with building seas of 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft are also expected in the Windward passage through Tue night.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the western Caribbean Sea late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook indicates that this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days.


  High Low
Coastal 29° C
85° F
27° C
79° F
Inland 31° C
88° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 27° C
79° F
18° C
65° F
TIDES:
High: 10:28 AM Low: 5:08 PM
High: 11:13 PM Low: 4:53 AM (Tue)
Sunrise: 5:37 AM Moonset: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 6:12 PM Moonrise: 7:26 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Henri was located inland about 60 miles (95 km) north-northwest of New York City, New York, and about 90 miles (145 km) west of Hartford, Connecticut. The depression is nearly stationary at the moment, but is expected to begin an eastward motion by later this morning into the afternoon hours.

We are also watching a few tropical waves, either across the tropical Atlantic or emerging off the African coast this week, but development with these seems unlikely for the next few days.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 23, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552227
08/23/21 06:05 AM
08/23/21 06:05 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,041
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
The National Hurricane Center has officially begun to monitor a low-pressure area that could develop in the Caribbean over the next few days.

[Linked Image]

Tropical waves no. 27 and 28 are in the area. Tropical wave no. 28 is a strong wave and is being watched for formation in the southwestern Caribbean in a few days (see above).

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 23, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552228
08/23/21 07:23 AM
08/23/21 07:23 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,523
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the East at 17 mph and rough sea conditions around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is set at 85.

FB_IMG_1629724643270.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 23, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552229
08/23/21 09:35 AM
08/23/21 09:35 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,041
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
There has been a very large ITCZ type swellup over the whole of central and southern Belize this morning, causing a huge amount of rain, right across southern and west central Belize, with other showers in the north. That is now moving away into Guatamala with the easterly Caribbean winds. This all being triggered by a lot of high level cloud coming down from the NW.

Today
Looks as if this wet weather will linger around for much of the morning, but not as heavy as earlier, and could still be some showers this afternoon.

Tonight
Probably continuing with its cloud and patches of rain.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 77°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F Yesterday Rain 19.5 mm (0.8") Over Night Rain 44 mm (1.7")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 23, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552230
08/23/21 09:44 AM
08/23/21 09:44 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,041
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Crown Weather:

Northwestern Caribbean Into Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Possible Late This Week: A fairly convectively active tropical wave is currently located over the eastern Caribbean where environmental conditions are very unfavorable for development. It is expected that this tropical wave will move westward this week reaching the western Caribbean by about Thursday. It is expected that the environmental conditions will be favorable for development late this week in the western Caribbean and I think that it’s quite possible that we’ll see tropical development in the area of the northwestern Caribbean as soon as Thursday night or Friday.

The model guidance, including the GFS, Canadian and European model guidance, are in very good agreement with each other in a forecast of northwestern Caribbean tropical development late this week. Where the guidance sort of disagrees is the potential track of this system once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

I think it’s quite possible, if not likely that our next named storm will come out of the tropical wave now in the eastern Caribbean when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean late this week. I put the chances of tropical development at 60-plus percent.

The track of this potential system will hinge on the strength and position of an upper level high pressure ridge that will be located over much of the southeastern United States for the next week or so. The western extent of this ridge is going to be very important in determining whether this system will head directly west-northwestward into eastern Mexico or be turned a little to the northwest and thus become a threat to some part of the Texas coast or even some part of the Louisiana coast early next week.

Another factor that’s going to be very important is the exact location of where this potential system forms. If it forms in the area from the southwestern Caribbean to near the northern coast of Honduras and coast of Belize, I think it’s likely it’d be guided towards a landfall in eastern or northeastern Mexico. On the other hand, if this system forms near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, it could be guided further north in the Gulf of Mexico leading to a potential impact to some part of the Texas coast or the Louisiana coast.

My thinking, at this point, is that the most likely track is for this system to develop near the eastern Yucatan Peninsula by around Friday and then move across the Yucatan Peninsula. From there, I think it’s most plausible that this system will bring tropical storm and possibly hurricane impacts to northeastern Mexico and possibly South Texas next Monday.

Additional Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Possible Late Next Week & Next Weekend (September 2-September 6): The Gulf of Mexico may really be a spot to watch closely for tropical development for at least the next couple of weeks. Ensemble model guidance of both the GFS and European models have a fairly strong signal that a second tropical system could form in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend of September 4-5.

The “seed” of this development seems to be a tropical wave that’s now located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic that ends up in the western Caribbean by the second half of next week. Again, the track of this system will depend on both where exactly it forms and what the upper level pattern looks like. It should be noted that the longer range 3 model ensemble mean guidance seems to hint that there may be a break in the high pressure ridge that would allow this system to head further north leading to a higher threat to the northern or western US Gulf Coast.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 23, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552233
08/23/21 12:11 PM
08/23/21 12:11 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,041
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
More rain coming in.

[Linked Image]

Present Condition: Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail. Flood warning:- there is a flood warning in effect for areas in the northern and southern districts.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially over the southern districts and coast tonight.

Outlook: A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect the southern districts and coast Tuesday night, then activites will become isolated across the country on Wednesday.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Flood Report and Forecast for today August 23, 2021

FLOOD WARNING

IN THE NORTH - Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman and Douglas to the Coast AND in the LOWER REACHES OF THE SOUTH - Sittee River, Swasey/Bladen/Monkey River, Medina Bank and especially at San Pedro Columbia, Big Falls South, Blue Creek South, Jordan and Crique Sarco, RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE RIVER LEVELS IN THEIR AREA CLOSELY. River Conditions


REGION 7 - Levels recorded today on the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek is normal and decreasing: at the lower reaches at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman and Douglas to the Coast are APPROACHING BANKFULL STAGE. On the NEW RIVER, levels at Towerhill and Caledonia are normal and increasing slowly.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways: and at San Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and increasing. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town is below normal and increasing.

On the BELIZE RIVER, below normal and steady levels were recorded at Double Run. The CROOKED TREE LAGOON remains below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - Levels recorded on the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is normal and shows minimal rise. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. River levels in watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS are at FLOOD STAGE. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. The Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER are APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. Levels on the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE (Machaca Creek is about to overflow its banks). On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia, level is BELOW THE BRIDGE BUT REMAINS AT FLOOD LEVELS. At Big Falls South, level is at FLOOD STAGE and Increasing. On the MOHO RIVER. levels at Blue Creek South is at FLOOD LEVELS: and at Jordan levels are at FLOOD STAGE and decreasing. Levels recorded on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco are at FLOOD STAGE and decreasing.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER. level is at FLOOD STAGE. FLOOD FORECAST REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, levels is expected to increase to above normal levels: at San Antonio, San Roman, Santa Cruz and Douglas to the Coast, BANKFULL LEVELS are expected. On the NEW RIVER, at Towerhill and Caledonia, near normal levels are expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER. at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway: and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to increase. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, an increase to normal levels is expected.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are expected to increase to normal levels: and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, no significant change in lagoon levels is expected.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, increasing levels is expected. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, levels are at FLOOD STAGE and expected to increase. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, FLOOD STAGE is expected. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, FLOOD LEVELS are expected. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, FLOOD LEVELS are expected. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and at Big Falls South, FLOOD LEVELS TO PERSIST and increase. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, FLOOD LEVELS to persist and increasing with rainfall activity. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, FLOOD LEVELS TO PERSIST.

REGIONS 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, FLOOD LEVELS TO PERSIST are expected.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON AUGUST 25, 2021

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 23, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552235
08/24/21 04:04 AM
08/24/21 04:04 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,041
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Dark clouds in San Pedro. Photo by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

A Monday view from Corozal. Photo by Belize Scoop

[Linked Image]

Monday afternoon in Corozal.





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