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Belize Weather Forecast: August 25, 2021

#552266 08/25/21 06:10 AM

Joined: Oct 1999

Posts: 84,392

oregon, spr

Marty

Marty

Belize Weather Forecast: August 25, 2021

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy in the south, clear in the north. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Light to moderate east-northeasterly airflow, relatively dry conditions prevail.
Advisories: A flood warning is in effect for Southern Stann Creek and Toledo.
24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny today with only isolated showers, and the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm inland. Partly cloudy tonight with isolated showers or thunderstorms mainly over the south.
Winds: E-NE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Choppy
Waves: 3-5 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: (Thur & Thur night) Generally fair with isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms developing.
Sargassum Forecast from August 24 to September 1: There continues to be a medium chance of additional sargassum mats landing on beaches mainly in the northern parts of the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A broad area of low pressure is expected to from over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, in a couple of days, from a tropical wave presently over the central Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, and fresh to locally strong winds in the Windward passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range across the central Caribbean, but mainly between 70W and 75W. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the NE Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are over the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N, in association with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, that extends from northern Colombia to Costa Rica.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will dominate most of east and central Caribbean today. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea along 72W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Based on the forecast, winds and waves will likely increase between 77W and the Yucatan Peninsula Fri and Sat.

	High	Low
Coastal	31° C 87° F	26° C 79° F
Inland	33° C 92° F	22° C 72° F
Hills	29° C 84° F	19° C 66° F

TIDES:
Low: 5:42 AM	High: 11:48 AM
Low: 6:16 PM	High: 12:07 AM (Thu)
Sunrise: 5:37 AM	Moonset: 8:20 AM
Sunset: 6:11 PM	Moonrise: 8:38 PM

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Over the Atlantic basin on this Tuesday evening, NHC continues to watch three areas of disturbed weather

The first is a broad area of low pressure that's expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a medium (60 percent) chance during the next five days.

The second is a broad trough of low pressure that's producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Little development of this system is expected during the next day or two due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (70 percent) chance during the next five days.

The third is a tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend.

It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low (30 percent) chance during the next five days.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 25, 2021 Marty #552267 08/25/21 06:11 AM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,392 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	We are monitoring multiple tropical waves in the Atlantic basin for further development into possible tropical cyclones, August 24-31, 2021. The tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean, now designated Invest99L, is of immediate concern. The NHC-Miami has increased the probability of tropical depression or tropical storm formation in the next 5 days to 60%. People/Friends in Texas +Louisiana + Mexico should be closely monitoring the track and intensity of this developing tropical system. The next names on the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season list are Ida and Julian. The latest model guidance runs have Texas in a landfall target zone; however, there has been a trend to the east; thus, people/friends in Louisiana should be monitoring 99L.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 25, 2021 Marty #552268 08/25/21 07:58 AM
Joined: Dec 2006 Posts: 13,675 San Pedro Belize elbert
elbert	On Ambergris Caye this morning we are intently watching storm developments. We have a wind from the East at 13 mph creating a calm sea condition around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is set at 87 f. White Sands Dive Shop https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 25, 2021 Marty #552269 08/25/21 08:31 AM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,392 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	The heavy cloud activity has stopped today, easterly Caribbean with a few lines of rain it it, only a small area of high level from the west. Today A few patches of rain around, reducing during the day, so mainly a sunny day, but with significant clouds. Tonight Probably partly cloudy. Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last Night 23°C 74°F Yesterday max. 31°C 89°F Yesterday Rain 40 mm (1.6") Over Night Rain 0.2 mm (0")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 25, 2021 Marty #552276 08/25/21 12:07 PM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,392 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	Present Condition: Mostly clear skies throughout the country. Clear and sunny in San Pedro. Relatively dry conditions prevail over the area. A flood warning remains in effect for areas in the Stann Creek and Toledo Districts due to elevated river levels. 24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny skies during the daytime and partly cloudy skies tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated. Outlook: From Thursday afternoon through to midday on Friday is for partly cloudy skies witih showers and thunderstorms being generally isolated. Crown Weather: Invest 99-L Located Over The South-Central Caribbean: A strong and active tropical wave is located over the south-central Caribbean today. This wave is producing an increasing amount of deeper thunderstorm activity, however, the environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for development due to strong wind shear. It is expected that all of this will change once Invest 99-L moves into the northwestern Caribbean by about Friday into Saturday where the environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development. This means that it's fairly likely that a tropical depression and then possibly a tropical storm will develop in the northwestern Caribbean on Friday into Friday night with tropical storm conditions quite possible across the eastern and northern Yucatan Peninsula on Friday night into Saturday. As we get into this weekend, the track and strength of Invest 99-L needs to be watched extremely closely. It appears that the environmental conditions will be favorable for strengthening and potentially significant strengthening. As for potential track, the trend in the guidance is for a continued weakening of the high pressure ridge over the southeastern United States and an open space for this system to head to the northwest and potentially impact some part of the Texas and Louisiana coast as a hurricane early next week. I still think that there is a 90-plus percent chance that we will have tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean beginning on Friday. This means that the eastern and northern Yucatan Peninsula is very likely to be affected by tropical storm conditions on Friday night and Saturday. I also think that there is a 90-plus percent chance that we will have a strengthening tropical storm and then a strengthening hurricane that heads first west-northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico later Saturday into Sunday and then potentially turn a little to northwest later Sunday and head for the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It needs to be strongly emphasized that the environmental conditions look favorable for not only intensification, but also favorable for rapid strengthening from Saturday night to Monday night/Tuesday. This 48-60 hours over a very favorable environment for strengthening means that it's possible that an intense Gulf of Mexico hurricane is possible early next week. Where this system makes landfall late Monday or Tuesday is going to hinge on the strength and position of an upper level high pressure ridge that will be located over the southeastern United States. The trend over the last couple of days is for a weaker high pressure ridge that doesn't extend that far west. Also, there are trends in the guidance that hint that an upper level trough may sweep through the Ohio Valley early next week. This combination of upper level weather systems could be enough to turn Invest 99-L northwestward and maybe even northward towards the upper Texas coast of southern Louisiana. Another factor that's going to be very important is the exact location of where this potential system forms. If it forms in the area around the southwestern Caribbean, it would probably interact with Central America with a much weaker system heading for eastern Mexico. On the other hand, if this system forms on the northern end of the tropical wave near the northwestern Caribbean, it would be guided towards an impact with the middle and upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana. My thinking, at this point, is that the most likely track is for this system to develop into a tropical storm near the eastern and northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late Friday and then move either across the northern Yucatan Peninsula or through the Yucatan Channel. From there, I think it's most plausible that this system will make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Morgan City as a hurricane late Monday or early Tuesday. For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 25, 2021 Marty #552278 08/25/21 02:25 PM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,392 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	Flood Report and Forecast for August 25, 2021 FLOOD WARNING RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE RIVER LEVELS IN THEIR AREA CLOSELY. River Conditions REGI ON 7 - Levels are receding on the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman and Douglas to the Coast. On the NEW RIVER, levels at Towerhill and Caledonia are normal and decreasing slowly. REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio. levels are below the low-level bridge and steady. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town has increased to above normal levels. On the BELIZE RIVER at DOUBLE Run, below normal and steady levels was recorded. The CROOKED TREE LAGOON remains below the causeway and steady. REGION 11 - The SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is near normal and has increased minimally. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. River levels in watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS and SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge are at FLOOD STAGE and receding. Levels on the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia, and Big Falls South, the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan. and the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco remains at FLOOD STAGE but are now receding slowly. REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER. levels are at FLOOD STAGE and receding slowly. FLOOD FORECAST REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, San Antonio. San Roman, Santa Cruz and Douglas to the Coast, levels are expected to begin to recede. On the NEW RIVER. at Towerhill and Caledonia, normal levels are expected. REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER. at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio,levels are expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are expected to decrease. On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, below normal levels are expected; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, no significant change in lagoon levels is expected. REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, near normal is expected. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, Flood Stage is expected to continue to decrease. On the Swasey and Bladen Branches of the MONKEY RIVER receding Flood Stage is expected to continue. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and at Big Falls South, the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan. and the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, Flood Stage is expected to continue to recede. REGIONS 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER. Flood levels is expected to continue to recede. THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON AUGUST 27, 2021

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 25, 2021 Marty #552285 08/26/21 03:53 AM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,392 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	It's HOT! Keeping an eye on the storm system projected to come our way as a depression. We, in San Pedro, have had some rain showers�one or two hard ones this week but it looks like Southern Belize has been drenched! Photo by San Pedro Scoop POD OF DOLPHINS SPOTTED IN COROZAL BAY TODAY The pod was seen near Rocky Point in Corozal Bay Wildlife Sanctuary 9pm in Hopkins. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

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