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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,395
Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: August 26, 2021

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy in the south, more clear in the north. Mostly clear in San Pedro. A northeasterly airflow prevails over the area.
Advisories: A flood warning remains in effect for areas in the Stann Creek and Toledo districts due to elevated river levels.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated with the chance for slightly more inland today then over northern and central areas tonight.
Winds: N-NE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Light Chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: Mainly fair conditions with isolated showers for Friday, increasing along with isolated thunderstorms mainly over northern and central areas on Friday night.
Sargassum Forecast from August 24 to September 1: There continues to be a medium chance of additional sargassum mats landing on beaches mainly in the northern parts of the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: An area of low pressure, located a couple hundred miles south of Jamaica, is gradually becoming better organised and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecasted to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today. Also, there is an area of low pressure located about 650mls ESE of Bermuda. This system has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 48hrs as it moves slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure along the wave axis. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds are over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, a tropical depression or storm is expected to form later today or tomorrow in the Caribbean Sea. For now, a Gale Warning is in effect for the NW Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for more on a low pressure along an active tropical wave located over the central Caribbean.

  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
26° C
79° F
Inland 34° C
93° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 26° C
79° F
18° C
65° F
Low: 6:31 AM High: 12:27 PM
Low: 6:48 PM High: 12:37 AM (Fri)
Sunrise: 5:37 AM Moonset: 9:10 AM
Sunset: 6:10 PM Moonrise: 9:13 PM

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located less than 200 miles south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Cayman Islands tonight, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Given the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be required later today.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,395
Marty Offline OP
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The system to the northwest of Colombia (99L) is increasing to 80% of cyclone development probabilities. Environmental conditions will turn favorable and a Tropical Depression is likely to form later this week or early next week. The inhabitants of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Northern Guatemala, Yucat�n Peninsula, West Cuba and especially the Gulf Coast States should monitor this system very closely. It will continue to leave rainfall on Northwestern Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, then spread to other countries.

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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the North at 10 mph and calm sea around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is set at 88f.


White Sands Dive Shop
Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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These last two days, I have been watching cloud out in the Caribbean, by Jamaica, wondering when it would move over to Belize. This morning I suddenly see that it has developed into a large ITCZ active area and could start rotating. I see that the hurricane people have also spotted it this morning as INVEST 99L so I will be watching it. They do not have any probable development or direction information, I think it will go up over Cuba, but too early to be sure.

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But the bubble of cloud I showed yesterday, is now causing the Caribbean winds to come down from the NNE, with some clouds and causing rain, presently out at sea, but I suspect some will be on land later today.

All rather variable at present, all I can say is that there will be sunshine, cloud and probably rain areas later.

Too early to predict, with all this changing activity.

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Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 23°C 77°F Yesterday max. 31°C 90°F Yesterday Rain 0.2 mm ( 0") Over Night Rain 0 mm ( 0" )

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,395
Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Mostly clear skies, a few clouds in the deep south by Punta Gorda. Mostly clear in San Pedro. A slightly moist northeasterly airflow prevails over the area. A flood warning remains in effect for areas in the Stann Creek and Toledo districts due to elevated river levels.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells during the daytime and cloudy at times tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur over southern, coastal and offshore areas this afternoon and tomorrow morning, then over northern and central areas tonight.

Outlook: For Friday afternoon through to midday on Saturday is for a similar pattern to prevail.

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Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1

Early morning visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over west-central Caribbean Sea has become better defined. There has also been an increase in the organization of the associated convective activity, and based on consensus Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with the subjective satellite estimates. The official reporting station in Kingston, Jamaica, has reported sustained winds of 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system later this afternoon to provide more information on the system's structure and intensity.

The depression is moving northwestward or 325/11 kt, however the initial motion is a bit more uncertain than normal since the low- level center has only recently formed. The cyclone is forecast to move steadily northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge centered over the western Atlantic. This track should bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday, and have the center approach the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, however the average NHC track forecast error at day 4 is around 175 miles, so users should not focus on the details of the long range track forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined. The NHC track is near the various consensus model aids and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean.

The depression will be moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next 24-36 hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and could approach hurricane strength as it passes near or over western Cuba. Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions are expected to be conducive for additional strengthening, and rapid intensification is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast between 48 and 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This forecast is supported by the HWRF and CTCI models, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global model guidance, which all significantly deepen the cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend.

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For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,395
Marty Offline OP
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Crown Weather:

Tropical Storm Ida Thursday Evening Update

As expected, reconnaissance aircraft investigating Tropical Depression #9 have found that it is actually a tropical storm with 40 mph maximum winds. Because of this, it has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm and named Ida.

Overall, there aren't any major changes to my forecast from earlier today. The only change is timing as it appears that Ida may cross the coast and make landfall late Sunday afternoon instead of Sunday night.

I still think that Ida will rapidly strengthen beginning late Friday night and Saturday morning and continuing through Sunday until landfall. This means that Ida is very likely to be strengthening right up to landfall. I still think that Ida will probably make landfall somewhere between Grand Isle/New Orleans and Pascagoula late Sunday afternoon as a 125 to 135 mph hurricane.

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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Holy squall this morning!

Later... Photo by San Pedro Scoop

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Thursday view from Corozal. Photo by Belize Scoop

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Sunset view on Corozal. Photo by Belize Scoopr

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