Scattered clouds, mostly in the south. Clear and sunny in San Pedro. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.24hr Forecast:
Cloudy at times along with a few showers and thunderstorms mainly inland this afternoon and evening, then over the sea and coast later tonight. Tomorrow morning will be mainly fair.Outlook:
(Saturday afternoon - midday Sunday) Mainly fair with only isolated showers or thunderstorms inland Saturday afternoon, then a few showers or thunderstorms will develop along the coast early Sunday morning.Crown Weather:Ida Is Now A Hurricane Over The Northwest Caribbean Sea & Is Expected To Be A Major Hurricane Impact For South-Central & Southeast Louisiana Into Southern Mississippi Sunday Into Monday
Radar imagery and satellite loops indicates that Ida is organizing at a fairly quick clip today. There appears to be an increase in banding, along with signs of an eyewall starting to develop on the northern side of Ida. In addition, reconnaissance aircraft are finding central barometric pressures have fallen from 996 millibars to 987 millibars and they are also finding winds of 75 mph. Because of this, Ida is now a hurricane. Rapid intensification is then expected beginning on Saturday and continuing through Sunday and it looks very likely that Ida will be a major devastating hurricane across south-central and southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi when it makes landfall late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
It is expected that Ida will move over western Cuba this evening and little or no weakening is expected as this part of Cuba is rather flat. I then expect that Ida will move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night and then into the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Ida is organizing and strengthening quicker than what almost all of the model guidance have suggested, including the overzealous HWRF model. It is expected that Ida is going to find itself in a very favorable environment for strengthening and likely rapid intensification beginning on Saturday and especially during Saturday night and Sunday.
These very favorable environmental conditions will include low to very low wind shear values, extremely warm ocean water temperatures and a very moist environment.
Because of this, I think that Ida will probably strengthen to at least a 125 to 135 mph hurricane by midday Sunday and it could definitely be stronger than this, given the very favorable environmental conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is then likely during Sunday afternoon and it looks very likely that Ida will potentially strengthen steadily right up to landfall. This means that Ida could make landfall as at least a 130 to 140 mph hurricane late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening and again, it could be stronger than this.
In Summary - I think that Ida will not only strengthen, but rapidly strengthen into at least a 125-135 mph hurricane by midday Sunday and make landfall in southeast Louisiana in the area of Morgan City, Houma and Grand Isle late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening as a 130 to 140 mph hurricane.For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click hereFlood Report and Forecast for August 27, 2021RECEDING FLOOD LEVELS CONTINUES ON RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT. River Conditions
REGI ON 7 - Levels continue to recede on the RIO HONDO and NEW RIVER. REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and steady. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town are above the banks and receding.
The BELIZE RIVER at DOUBLE Run has increased to above normal levels. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, a minimal increased was recorded, levels remain below the causeway.
REGION 11 - The SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun has increased to above normal levels. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. FLOOD STAGE on the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS and the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, continues to recede slowly. FLOOD STAGE on the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER continues to recede. The DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is above normal and decreasing. FLOOD STAGE on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia, and Big Falls South is receding. The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, and the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco remains at FLOOD STAGE but receding slowly.
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are at FLOOD STAGE and receding slowly. FLOOD FORECAST
REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, San Antonio, San Roman, Santa Cruz and Douglas to the Coast, receding levels is expected to increase minimally over the weekend. On the NEW RIVER, at Towerhill and Caledonia, above normal levels are expected.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels is expected to increase; and at San Ignacio, levels is expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, above the bank levels is expected to decrease to above normal levels.
On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, increasing levels is expected to peak then begin to recede; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, increasing lagoon levels is expected to become steady.
REGION 11- On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, increasing levels is expected to become steady. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS and the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, Flood Stage is expected to continue to recede. On the Swasey and Bladen Branches of the MONKEY RIVER receding Flood Stage is expected to continue. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, levels is expected to continue to recede. the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, and the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, Flood Stage is expected to continue to recede.
REGIONS 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, Flood stage is expected to continue to recede.
A vortex-induced trough in height will be generating rainflows and storms across most of the peninsula today.