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Belize Weather Forecast: August 27, 2021 #552312
08/27/21 06:08 AM
08/27/21 06:08 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,146
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: August 27, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy this morning. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.
Advisories: A flood warning remains in effect for areas in the Stann Creek and Toledo districts due to elevated river levels.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells with isolated showers or thunderstroms, then a few more mostly coast and north tonight.
Winds: W-NW, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Saturday and Saturday night is for isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sargassum Forecast from August 24 to September 1: There continues to be a medium chance of additional sargassum mats landing on beaches mainly in the northern parts of the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am Tropical Strom Ida was near 20.0N 81.4W or about 50 miles NNW of Grand Cayman. A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic has a high chance while an area of low pressure over the central Atlantic has a medium chance of developing to a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure along the wave axis. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds are over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, a tropical depression or storm is expected to form later today or tomorrow in the Caribbean Sea. For now, a Gale Warning is in effect for the NW Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for more on a low pressure along an active tropical wave located over the central Caribbean.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
25° C
77° F
Inland 33° C
92° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 27° C
81° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
Low: 7:24 AM High: 1:08 PM
Low: 7:19 PM High: 1:12 AM (Sat)
Sunrise: 5:38 AM Moonset: 9:59 AM
Sunset: 6:10 PM Moonrise: 9:49 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Storm Ida is tracking to the northwest, just west of Jamaica. In addition, we are monitoring a couple other areas for potential development. Ida is expected to slowly intensify as it approaches the Cayman Islands tonight and moves over western Cuba by Friday and Friday night. Conditions will be favorable for continued intensification over the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, and it is not completely out of the question that Ida could become a hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) just before passing over or near the western tip of Cuba. Continued intensification is likely after the storm passes by Cuba, and there is a distinct possibility that this system could become a major hurricane (maximum sustained wind of 111 mph or greater) before making landfall Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, likely along the Louisiana coast.

There is a high probability for development with Invest 97L later Friday into this weekend as it moves slowly to the east and northeast. As such, 97L will not be a threat to land as it moves away from Bermuda and over the open waters of the central Atlantic.

There is a medium chance for development with Invest 98L as it moves gradually to the west-northwest, before eventually turning to the north this weekend or early next week. This turn should take place early enough to prevent 98L from having much impact on the Lesser Antilles, but it is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

All Eyes On Ida

There is another tropical weather system out in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea, and Belizean authorities are advising the general public to keep an eye on it. That system was a nameless Tropical Wave that was formed several days ago, and tonight, it is making its way west as Tropical Storm Ida.

Yesterday, in a press release from the Cabinet, GOB said the system will move closer to our area over the next two days as a weak tropical depression…and is expected to bring rains and flooding, especially in the northern part of the country over the weekend.

Since then, it has organized and strengthened to a tropical storm, but weather forecasts say that it will not affect Belize. It is believed that the system will pass into the Gulf of Mexico, where it could intensify into a hurricane that hits the southern coast of the United States.

This evening, we spoke via Zoom with Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon about the system and how it is likely to behave over the next few days:

Ronald Gordon - Chief Meteorologist, NMS
"We have been monitoring the tropical wave as it progressed across the Caribbean Sea. Yesterday, it had not developed a center as yet, and there was wide uncertainty about where the system would go. And therefore, it was prudent at that time to advise the general public to be on the alert for the possibility of it coming our way. Because the system had not developed, the uncertainty was high, and it was possible for it goes either from Northern Belize to Western Cuba. So, there was widespread in terms of where the system could have gone. As of this morning, the system became better organized, and it now has a center of circulation, so, the models are able to track it better, and predict where it's going. And since then, the models have consolidated, basically to come to a consensus. There is general agreement that the system will move northwestward toward the western tip of Cuba. Just for completeness, I should mention that the system is now a Tropical Storm Ida. It was upgraded just a few minutes ago, at about 3:20 local time. And as we speak, Ida is centered near latitude 18.0 degrees north, 79.8 degrees west, and moving to the northwest at 14 miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour. So, it's just 5 miles per hour above what it was before, which changes it from a tropical depression to a tropical storm. With the current trajectory and the current forecast path, we expect minimal impact, if any from Ida. The system is passing well to the east and north of us, and will make landfall, as I mentioned before — it will go across the Cayman, Western Cuba, then move into the Gulf of Mexico, where it is forecasted to intensify further and possibly become a hurricane before it approaches the United States."

Forecast models say that it should be well out of Belize's area of concern sometime during the weekend. The public is advised to still keep an eye on this tropical storm's path.

Channel 7


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 27, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552313
08/27/21 06:08 AM
08/27/21 06:08 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,146
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Tropical Storm Ida has formed in the Caribbean, will be a hurricane.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands this morning, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida.

At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located over the west-central Caribbean Sea about 50 miles (80 km) north-northwest of Grand Cayman and about 145 miles (230 km) southeast of the Isle of Youth. Ida is depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move away from the Cayman Islands this morning, pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). Grand Cayman Island recently reported a pressure of 1003 mb (29.62 inches). Additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected to occur during the next few days. Ida is forecast to become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two, and to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 27, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552315
08/27/21 07:22 AM
08/27/21 07:22 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,531
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the North West at 8 mph and a calm sea condition around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is set at 88f.

FB_IMG_1630070166329.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 27, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552317
08/27/21 09:00 AM
08/27/21 09:00 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,146
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
It feels like fall today.. Photo by Simon Backley

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 27, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552318
08/27/21 09:48 AM
08/27/21 09:48 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,146
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Looks as if they think TROPICAL STORM IDA will develop more rapidly and become a Cat.3 by the time it gets to New Orleans. Our weather is very significantly being affected by the Pacific storm TROPICAL STORM NORA which is going up the west coast of Mexico and throwing a lot of high level clouds our way, and inter reacting with IDA which has now deflected our Caribbean winds from the north and even directing then towards the east over Honduras.

Today
Looks as if it will be mainly sunny, cool air from the north, some clouds developing later, and patches of high level clouds. Rain is presently only out at sea.

Tonight
Looks as if it will be a dry night with only some clouds.

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[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 76°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 27, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552320
08/27/21 10:39 AM
08/27/21 10:39 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,146
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
After some heavy rain showers yesterday and overnight, today is gorgeous! Sunny with a cooling breeze (as opposed to the usual hot humid wind) Ida swung (swinger?) way to our east and is headed towards Louisiana.Photos by San Pedro Scoop

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 27, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552322
08/27/21 12:26 PM
08/27/21 12:26 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,146
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Scattered clouds, mostly in the south. Clear and sunny in San Pedro. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy at times along with a few showers and thunderstorms mainly inland this afternoon and evening, then over the sea and coast later tonight. Tomorrow morning will be mainly fair.

Outlook: (Saturday afternoon - midday Sunday) Mainly fair with only isolated showers or thunderstorms inland Saturday afternoon, then a few showers or thunderstorms will develop along the coast early Sunday morning.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Crown Weather:

Ida Is Now A Hurricane Over The Northwest Caribbean Sea & Is Expected To Be A Major Hurricane Impact For South-Central & Southeast Louisiana Into Southern Mississippi Sunday Into Monday

Radar imagery and satellite loops indicates that Ida is organizing at a fairly quick clip today. There appears to be an increase in banding, along with signs of an eyewall starting to develop on the northern side of Ida. In addition, reconnaissance aircraft are finding central barometric pressures have fallen from 996 millibars to 987 millibars and they are also finding winds of 75 mph. Because of this, Ida is now a hurricane. Rapid intensification is then expected beginning on Saturday and continuing through Sunday and it looks very likely that Ida will be a major devastating hurricane across south-central and southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi when it makes landfall late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.

It is expected that Ida will move over western Cuba this evening and little or no weakening is expected as this part of Cuba is rather flat. I then expect that Ida will move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night and then into the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Ida is organizing and strengthening quicker than what almost all of the model guidance have suggested, including the overzealous HWRF model. It is expected that Ida is going to find itself in a very favorable environment for strengthening and likely rapid intensification beginning on Saturday and especially during Saturday night and Sunday.

These very favorable environmental conditions will include low to very low wind shear values, extremely warm ocean water temperatures and a very moist environment.

Because of this, I think that Ida will probably strengthen to at least a 125 to 135 mph hurricane by midday Sunday and it could definitely be stronger than this, given the very favorable environmental conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is then likely during Sunday afternoon and it looks very likely that Ida will potentially strengthen steadily right up to landfall. This means that Ida could make landfall as at least a 130 to 140 mph hurricane late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening and again, it could be stronger than this.

In Summary – I think that Ida will not only strengthen, but rapidly strengthen into at least a 125-135 mph hurricane by midday Sunday and make landfall in southeast Louisiana in the area of Morgan City, Houma and Grand Isle late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening as a 130 to 140 mph hurricane.

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[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Flood Report and Forecast for August 27, 2021

RECEDING FLOOD LEVELS CONTINUES ON RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT.

River Conditions

REGI ON 7 - Levels continue to recede on the RIO HONDO and NEW RIVER. REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and steady. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town are above the banks and receding.

The BELIZE RIVER at DOUBLE Run has increased to above normal levels. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, a minimal increased was recorded, levels remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - The SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun has increased to above normal levels. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. FLOOD STAGE on the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS and the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, continues to recede slowly. FLOOD STAGE on the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER continues to recede. The DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is above normal and decreasing. FLOOD STAGE on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia, and Big Falls South is receding. The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, and the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco remains at FLOOD STAGE but receding slowly.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are at FLOOD STAGE and receding slowly.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, San Antonio, San Roman, Santa Cruz and Douglas to the Coast, receding levels is expected to increase minimally over the weekend. On the NEW RIVER, at Towerhill and Caledonia, above normal levels are expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels is expected to increase; and at San Ignacio, levels is expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, above the bank levels is expected to decrease to above normal levels.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, increasing levels is expected to peak then begin to recede; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, increasing lagoon levels is expected to become steady.

REGION 11- On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, increasing levels is expected to become steady. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS and the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, Flood Stage is expected to continue to recede. On the Swasey and Bladen Branches of the MONKEY RIVER receding Flood Stage is expected to continue. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, levels is expected to continue to recede. the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, and the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, Flood Stage is expected to continue to recede.

REGIONS 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, Flood stage is expected to continue to recede.

[Linked Image]

A vortex-induced trough in height will be generating rainflows and storms across most of the peninsula today.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 27, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552325
08/28/21 04:28 AM
08/28/21 04:28 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,146
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
A Friday scroll in Corozal. Photo by Belize Scoop

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A beautiful sunny day in Hopkins Village. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

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Night views with a little sparkle. Photo by Marlena Gomez

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Happy Friday evening with Los Hijos Del West



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