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Belize Weather Forecast: August 27, 2021

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy this morning. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.
Advisories: A flood warning remains in effect for areas in the Stann Creek and Toledo districts due to elevated river levels.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells with isolated showers or thunderstroms, then a few more mostly coast and north tonight.
Winds: W-NW, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Saturday and Saturday night is for isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sargassum Forecast from August 24 to September 1: There continues to be a medium chance of additional sargassum mats landing on beaches mainly in the northern parts of the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am Tropical Strom Ida was near 20.0N 81.4W or about 50 miles NNW of Grand Cayman. A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic has a high chance while an area of low pressure over the central Atlantic has a medium chance of developing to a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure along the wave axis. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds are over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, a tropical depression or storm is expected to form later today or tomorrow in the Caribbean Sea. For now, a Gale Warning is in effect for the NW Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for more on a low pressure along an active tropical wave located over the central Caribbean.

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Storm Ida is tracking to the northwest, just west of Jamaica. In addition, we are monitoring a couple other areas for potential development. Ida is expected to slowly intensify as it approaches the Cayman Islands tonight and moves over western Cuba by Friday and Friday night. Conditions will be favorable for continued intensification over the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, and it is not completely out of the question that Ida could become a hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) just before passing over or near the western tip of Cuba. Continued intensification is likely after the storm passes by Cuba, and there is a distinct possibility that this system could become a major hurricane (maximum sustained wind of 111 mph or greater) before making landfall Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, likely along the Louisiana coast.

There is a high probability for development with Invest 97L later Friday into this weekend as it moves slowly to the east and northeast. As such, 97L will not be a threat to land as it moves away from Bermuda and over the open waters of the central Atlantic.

There is a medium chance for development with Invest 98L as it moves gradually to the west-northwest, before eventually turning to the north this weekend or early next week. This turn should take place early enough to prevent 98L from having much impact on the Lesser Antilles, but it is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

All Eyes On Ida

There is another tropical weather system out in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea, and Belizean authorities are advising the general public to keep an eye on it. That system was a nameless Tropical Wave that was formed several days ago, and tonight, it is making its way west as Tropical Storm Ida.

Yesterday, in a press release from the Cabinet, GOB said the system will move closer to our area over the next two days as a weak tropical depression…and is expected to bring rains and flooding, especially in the northern part of the country over the weekend.

Since then, it has organized and strengthened to a tropical storm, but weather forecasts say that it will not affect Belize. It is believed that the system will pass into the Gulf of Mexico, where it could intensify into a hurricane that hits the southern coast of the United States.

This evening, we spoke via Zoom with Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon about the system and how it is likely to behave over the next few days:

Ronald Gordon - Chief Meteorologist, NMS
"We have been monitoring the tropical wave as it progressed across the Caribbean Sea. Yesterday, it had not developed a center as yet, and there was wide uncertainty about where the system would go. And therefore, it was prudent at that time to advise the general public to be on the alert for the possibility of it coming our way. Because the system had not developed, the uncertainty was high, and it was possible for it goes either from Northern Belize to Western Cuba. So, there was widespread in terms of where the system could have gone. As of this morning, the system became better organized, and it now has a center of circulation, so, the models are able to track it better, and predict where it's going. And since then, the models have consolidated, basically to come to a consensus. There is general agreement that the system will move northwestward toward the western tip of Cuba. Just for completeness, I should mention that the system is now a Tropical Storm Ida. It was upgraded just a few minutes ago, at about 3:20 local time. And as we speak, Ida is centered near latitude 18.0 degrees north, 79.8 degrees west, and moving to the northwest at 14 miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour. So, it's just 5 miles per hour above what it was before, which changes it from a tropical depression to a tropical storm. With the current trajectory and the current forecast path, we expect minimal impact, if any from Ida. The system is passing well to the east and north of us, and will make landfall, as I mentioned before — it will go across the Cayman, Western Cuba, then move into the Gulf of Mexico, where it is forecasted to intensify further and possibly become a hurricane before it approaches the United States."

Forecast models say that it should be well out of Belize's area of concern sometime during the weekend. The public is advised to still keep an eye on this tropical storm's path.

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