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Belize Weather Forecast: August 30, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy, somewhat less so in the north. Partly cloudy in San Pedro. Mainly fair weather will prevail during the next few days. Advisories: None. 24-hour forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated with isolated thunderstorms developing inland this afternoon and over the south tonight. Winds: E-SE, 10-20 kts Sea State: Choppy Waves: 3-5 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 88 Outlook: Tuesday and Tuesday night:- Mainly fair conditions with isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms developing. Sargassum Forecast from August 24 to September 1: There continues to be a medium chance of additional sargassum mats landing on beaches mainly in the northern parts of the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am Tropical Depression Ten was located near Lat 20.8N Long 50.6W or about 775 miles ENE of the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Ida was centered near 31.0N 90.8W or about 95 miles SSW of Jackson, Mississippi. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa later today. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, and two in the Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue across the S central basin N of Colombia today. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected through Tue, except for locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean today. A tropical wave will enhance winds in the SW Caribbean Mon evening through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds will dominate the basin through the remainder of the forecast period.   High Low Coastal 32° C 90° F 27° C 81° F Inland 34° C 94° F 22° C 72° F Hills 29° C 84° F 19° C 67° F TIDES: Low: 10:42 AM High: 3:51 PM Low: 9:05 PM High: 3:33 AM (Tue) Sunrise: 5:38 AM Moonset: 12:30 PM Sunset: 6:07 PM Moonrise: 11:50 PM Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

...IDA NOW A TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
... DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

At 4 a.m. CDT, the center of now Tropical Storm Ida was located inland about 95 miles (155 km) south-southwest of Jackson, Miss. and about 50 miles (75 km) northeast of Baton Rouge, La. Ida is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight and continue on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana early this morning and move into southwestern Mississippi later this morning. Ida is then forecast to move over central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km), mainly southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 32 mph (51 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h) were recently observed at the airport in McComb, Mississippi. Along the Gulf coast, a Weatherflow station in Gulfport, Mississippi, recently measured a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). Additional rapid weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression by this evening.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 10 continues to track northward over the open water several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. T.D. 10 is expected to drift northward over the rest of the week and not impact land.

There is also a tropical wave emerging off the western coast of Africa by the middle of this week that may develop and organize further.

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the East at 19 mph creating rough sea conditions around our. Today's expected high temperature is set at 90 f.

The Caribbean winds are from the east or ESE and with some cloud, but there is high level coming down from the NNE and causing some clashing and rain showers.

Today
Cloud is building, but also some clashing, so isolated rain showers, particularly in the south.

Tonight
Looks as if it may be a dry night.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 26°C 78°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0 )

Present Condition: Mostly clear in the north, more clouds in the south. Clear blue sky in San Pedro. Mainly fair conditions will prevail over the next couple of days.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated, with the chance for a few more inland this afternoon and over the south tonight.

Outlook: (Tuesday afternoon - midday Wednesday) Mainly fair with only isolated shower or isolated thunderstorms developing.





Crown Weather:



Western Caribbean Tropical Development Possible Late This Week Or This Weekend: Unfortunately, the tropics are not taking any sort of a break after Ida as there are several areas that I'm keeping an eye on.

The first area to watch is an area of disturbed weather that's beginning to form over the far southwestern Caribbean. Model guidance seems to agree that an area of low pressure will form from this disturbed weather and gradually push northwestward near the coast of Central America by the middle and end of this week.

The big question is whether this disturbed weather will become entangled in Central America and never develop or will this disturbed weather get drawn northward into the Gulf of Mexico by late this week where it develops this weekend.

The key to this track looks to be the positioning and strength of a high pressure ridge over the southern Plains states this coming weekend and a trough of low pressure near the northeast US.

The ensemble model guidance mean of the 3 big models (GFS, Canadian and European) suggests that the high pressure ridge over the southern Plains states may back off and allow the trough of low pressure near the northeast US also moves westward and sets up near the Ohio Valley. Should this occur, it could lead to an opening for this disturbance to be drawn into the Gulf of Mexico rather than dissipating over Central America.

While a majority of the ensemble members seem to suggest that a track into Central America and eventually southern Mexico may occur, there are a few members that forecast a north and northwest track that would lead to something to really watch in the Gulf of Mexico for the weekend.

It's nothing to be overly concerned about at this point, but it is a disturbance that does need to be watched for now. Fortunately though, the latest guidance seems to be favoring the Central America dissipation scenario much more now.

Flood Report and Forecast for August 30, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - Levels recorded today on the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman and Douglas to the Coast are above normal and receding. On the NEW RIVER, levels at Tower Hill and Caledonia are near normal and decreasing slowly.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and steady. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town are above the normal and receding.

The BELIZE RIVER at DOUBLE Run is below normal and continues to recede. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels remains below the causeway.

REGION 11 - The SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun continues to recede. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. Flood stage have receded to above normal levels on the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, the MONKEY RIVER on the Swasey and Bladen, the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, and the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, Flood stage continues to recede.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, receding levels is expected to increase minimally. On the NEW RIVER, at Tower Hill and Caledonia, normal levels are expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels is expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels is expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, above normal levels is expected to continue to recede.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, below normal levels is expected; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels is expected to remain the causeway.

REGION 11- On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, receding levels is expected to continue. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS and the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, above normal and slowly receding levels is expected. On the Swasey and Bladen Branches of the MONKEY RIVER above normal levels is expected. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, below normal levels is expected. The RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, is expected to continue to recede becoming above normal levels. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, above normal levels is expected. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, above normal levels is expected.

REGIONS 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, above normal levels is expected.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 1, 2021

Today was a scorcher! But there was a breeze...warm as it was, I was thankful! Photo by San Pedro Scoop