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Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2021 #552379
08/31/21 06:05 AM
08/31/21 06:05 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,125
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Cloudy throughout the country this morning, including in San Pedro. Generally fair conditions will prevail over most areas.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells today and isolated showers along with the chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms inland. tonight skies will be cloudy at times with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast
Winds: E-SE, 10-20 kts
Sea State: Choppy - Moderate
Waves: 3-6 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Wednesday and Wednesday night is for fair weather with only isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms.
Sargassum Forecast from August 24 to September 1: There continues to be a medium chance of additional sargassum mats landing on beaches mainly in the northern parts of the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am Tropical Storm Kate was near 23.0N 50.9W or about 815 miles ENE of the Leeward Islands. An area of low pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave that recently moved off the west coast of Africa. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There are three tropical waves in the Atlantic, and two in the Caribbean.

Recent satellite derived wind data show gentle to moderate winds across most of the region, with moderate to fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are generally 3-5 ft with the exception of 4-7 ft in the SW part of the basin, and 1-3 ft over the eastern Caribbean E of 68W and in the lee of Cuba, including also the waters in the Windward passage and between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted over the SW Caribbean, particularly S of 13N between 73W-83W. Two tropical waves are moving westward across the basin. Please, see Tropical Waves section for more details.

For the forecast, the pressure-gradient between a ridge east of Florida and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the SW Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear to be somewhat conducive for slow development by the end of the week, as long as the system remains over water. This system is expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 kt toward Central America. This could will bring some increase in winds and seas first in the SW Caribbean, then in the NW Caribbean Wed through Fri.


  High Low
Coastal 32° C
90° F
28° C
82° F
Inland 34° C
94° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 28° C
82° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
Low: 11:52 AM High: 5:48 PM
Low: 10:37 PM High: 4:39 AM (Wed)
Sunrise: 5:38 AM Moonset: 1:23 PM
Sunset: 6:06 PM Moonrise: 12:38 AM (Wed)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552380
08/31/21 06:06 AM
08/31/21 06:06 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,125
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
[Linked Image]

We are monitoring an undesignated tropical wave in the West Caribbean Sea that has a 20% chance of cyclone development in the next 5 days. At the moment, squally weather and choppy seas should be expected across Honduras + Nicaragua + Guatemala + El Salvador + Belize + the Yucatan Peninsula, August 30, 2021 thru September 2, 2021.

There is only modest model support for any development in this area, and any such low could move inland over Central America before any serious strengthening. In its 2 p.m. EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane gave the system a near-zero percent chance of any development here before Thursday, but a 20% chance by Saturday.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552381
08/31/21 06:36 AM
08/31/21 06:36 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,528
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a 20 mph wind from the East and rough sea conditions around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is set at 90f.

FB_IMG_1630411159999.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552382
08/31/21 08:06 AM
08/31/21 08:06 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,125
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
The Caribbean winds are light, from the east, but there is a lot, a whole thin blanket of high level cloud coming down from the ex-hurricane from the NNE. No rain on the radar

Today
The high level cloud will mainly cause a weak, hazy sunshine today, with some heavier patches, some normal clouds will form, but not expecting any rain.

Tonight
Probably cloudy, but dry night.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 78°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552385
08/31/21 12:07 PM
08/31/21 12:07 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,125
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Partly cloudy, less so in the north. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Generally fair weather prevails.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy periods this afternoon and tomorrow morning and partly cloudy skies tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, with slightly more developing along the coast tonight.

Outlook: Between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday midday is for continuing fair weather with only isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Tropical maritime air will favor scattered rains and a lot of muggy weather in the Peninsula.
Instability zone in the Caribbean will increase the rains for the weekend.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #552388
09/01/21 04:11 AM
09/01/21 04:11 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,125
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Getting the September Celebration groove. September is the month Belizeans will be celebrating our patrotic Independence month. Semptember flags red, white and Blue are hanged around town and across Belize. Even houses will be decotated September flags. Photos of Corozal. Photos by Belize Scoop

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Today in Hopkins. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Sunset in Corozal. Photo by Belize Scoop

[Linked Image]

Monthly Weather Summary, August 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

August in Belize is typically known as the “Mauga Season” where a marked decrease in rainfall activity is normally observed. Rainfall is normally attributed Upper-Level Troughs, Tropical waves, Cold Core Lows and Mid to Upper-Level Trough. An average of five upper-level troughs, five mid to upper level low and sixteen tropical waves and three cold core lows would pass over the country in August. However, only four tropical waves crossed the country with one of the TWs being weak. Most of the activity during the month was due to a persistent TUTT low at the upper levels and the proximity of several tropical systems to Belize.

The north Atlantic high-pressure ridge dominated the area supporting a light to moderate and relatively east to north-easterly airflow over Belize in week 1. Most of the moisture over the area was concentrated in the low levels below 750hPa, except for August 7, where a decrease in both low and upper-level moisture was observed. An anticyclone was analysed at the upper levels over Belize with a TUTT low over the Yucatan Peninsula. This resulted in a west to north-westerly upper-level component August 1 to 5 becoming more northerly on August 6 and 7 as the upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula backed over Belize from the west. Ridging at the upper levels supported mostly subsident conditions over northern Belize with slightly divergent conditions over the central and southern portions of the country. As a result, mainly fair weather was observed over most areas for much of the week supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms except for August 2 where on and off outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms affects most areas, with heavier rainfall affecting the south due to the presence of an TUTT induced trough over the area. The second wet day for this week was on August 6, where a divergent upper levels and relatively moist low levels supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms around this country in the morning, decreasing and becoming fair by the afternoon.

Week 2 started off moist and unstable as the upper level TUTT low was analysed over the Yucatan and Northern Belize leading to an increase in moisture while a neutral to divergent pattern provided outflow for the development of deep convection over the area. Most of the heavy rainfall activity was concentrated over southern and some central areas, while isolated showers and thunderstorms were observed over the remainder of the country of august 8 to 9. The surface flow was east to south-easterly with a south-westerly component at the upper levels. On August 10, a tropical wave approached the country crossing on August 11 with showers and thunderstorms affecting most areas of the country as a moist east to north-easterly airflow prevailed. A decrease in moisture and showery activity was observed on August 12 and 13 as the north Atlantic high-pressure ridge was the main feature dominating the area. Both the lower and upper levels were dry with subsident air aloft supported by an anticyclone to the east of Belize. The week ended with Tropical Depression Fred centred over central Cuba on August 14 extending a trough over the NW Caribbean and supporting a light east to north-easterly flow advecting moisture over the country and leading to the development of showers and thunderstorms over northern and central Belize.

A light east to north-easterly airflow prevailed into week 3 as the high-pressure ridge was the dominant feature influencing our weather from August 15 to 17. Mainly fair weather with only isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms occurred over inland and extreme southern portions of the country. During this period, an inactive tropical wave approached the country with little to no rainfall activity as the low and upper levels were dry with neutral upper-level pattern. The ridge pattern at the upper levels produced an easterly wind component. Tropical Depression Grace was south of Haiti with Tropical Storm Fred over the northern Gulf of Mexico and newly formed Tropical Storm Henri near Bermuda. Of these systems, TD Grace that has strengthened to TS Grace was the closest system to Belize. TS Grace was west of Jamaica on August 7 and moved quickly and strengthened into a Hurricane on August 18 as it moved north- north-westward east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The proximity of Hurricane Grace led to an increase in moisture and instability over the area and troughing supported a light north-easterly flow. The upper-level moisture increased, and a divergent upper-level pattern had developed over Belize supporting some showers and thunderstorms offshore during the night-time, with a few showers and thunderstorms over some inland areas in the afternoon with periods of persistent rains over the north-western region in the evening as hurricane Grace downgraded to a tropical storm when it moved over northwest Yucatan. Lingering moisture from Grace that re-gained hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche along with upper-level support from a TUTT low over the Bay of Campeche supported showers over most places with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over the Orange Walk, Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. Conditions became temporarily dry on August 21 only isolate showers and thunderstorms were observed over southern and offshore areas.

The approach and passage of a tropical wave on August 22 and 23 supported very moist and divergent conditions over Belize. The lingering TUTT low over the are provided additional lift and supported showers and thunderstorms around the country that started over the south and moved northward. Showers and thunderstorms persisted on the 24 and overnight into August 25 before activity decreased in the afternoon as moisture levels decrease. This decrease was short-lived as troughing over the northwest Caribbean supported a light northerly flow near the surface with the upper level TUTT supporting a south-westerly component due to an active tropical wave over the south-central Caribbean Sea but no significant showery activity was reported over Belize. This system became Hurricane Ida which posed no direct threat to Belize but a slack pressure gradient and the TUTT axis over Belize with moist conditions supported several outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms over coastal and northern Belize that developed and persisted through the night on August 27. A Ridge pattern began to settle over the area causing a gradual decrease in moisture as a drier east to south-easterly airflow prevailed. A neutral to weakly convergent pattern developed due to ridging at the upper levels resulting in a dry north-easterly component. The drier conditions led to fairer conditions with a few showers and isolated thunderstorm over the coastal and northern areas.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, most of the country experienced below normal rainfall except for a few central and southern locations. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show slightly above normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/night-time temperatures were near normal except for Central Farm and Savannah where slightly cooler night-time temperatures was observed.

Monthly Rainfall Summary

[Linked Image]

Monthly Maximum Temperatures

[Linked Image]

Monthly Minimum Temperatures

[Linked Image]


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