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Belize Weather Forecast: September 1, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear, a few clouds in the southwest. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Generally fair weather prevails. Advisories: A small craft caution is in effect for occasionally gusty winds and locally rough seas. 24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and partly cloudy skies tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated. Winds: E-SE, 10-20 kts Sea State: Moderate - Rough Waves: 5-7 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86 Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated on Thursday then will increase over most areas during Thursday night. Sargassum Forecast from August 31 to September 8: Satellite imagery show a few sargassum mats offshore and therefore there continues to be medium chance of new mats landing on beaches across the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am Tropical Depression Kate was near 25.7N 51.7W or about 895 miles NE of the Northern Leeward Islands An area of low pressure over the south-western Caribbean Sea, has a low chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next couple of days as it moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central America. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, and one in the Caribbean. An upper-level low spinning over the Bahamas and central Cuba is triggering scattered showers and a few thunderstorms near the S coast of W Cuba, but particularly over the Gulf of Batabano and the Isle of Youth. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms also noted over the SW Caribbean in association with a broad area of low pressure. Gentle to moderate trades are noted over much of the basin except fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras and just N of the broad area of low pressure previously located near 12N78W. Seas are 6-8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, 3-5 ft over the NW and SW parts of the basin, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge east of Florida and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the S central and NW Caribbean. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days while it moves westward or west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt toward Central America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula late this week and this weekend.   High Low Coastal 32° C 91° F 28° C 82° F Inland 36° C 96° F 24° C 75° F Hills 28° C 82° F 20° C 68° F TIDES: Low: 12:55 PM High: 8:20 PM Low: 11:51 PM High: 5:49 AM (Thu) Sunrise: 5:38 AM Moonset: 2:15 PM Sunset: 6:06 PM Moonrise: 1:29 AM (Thu) Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula late this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



NHC has upgraded Tropical Depression Twelve to Tropical Storm Larry, the twelfth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

At 5 a.m. AST, the center of Tropical Storm Larry was located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean about 175 miles (280 km) south of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Larry is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest during weekend.



For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the East at 20 mph creating rough sea conditions around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is set at 90f.

Not much happening in the way of weather around us at present, the Caribbean winds are from the SE The traces of high level from the NE have all bust stopped, there is a strong high level from the SW but over Honduras and into the sea, where there is a lot of cloud and ITCZ activity developing, which might affect us in a few days time.

Today
Generally a sunny day with some clouds developing, no rain showing up or expected.

Tonight
Probably some cloud, but dry night.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 27°C 81°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

The cloud around the Nicaragua and Honduras coast out in the sea is simply Monsoon belt ITCZ activity and is still on and off this morning. . . It will have areas that swellup from time to time. . . It appears to be due to two different air masses and a lot of moisture. . . . ITCZ swellups are usually the place where tropical storms can start. At present, no indication of any start, but, as did IDA, they can start up very rapidly. So we do need to keep watching. August / September are particularly high storm risks.

I see a lot of people think the Coriolis effect is the cause of spin-ups, but that is not correct.. . different air movements can cause spin to start, the Coriolis effect can only cause rotation, if the heavy cloud area, starts moving northwards, away from the equator, but whilst only moving east - west, then it can't cause rotation. But there are many areas of ITCZ swellup, which, in them selves, are unstable wet air.

Mostly clear throughout the country.

Present Condition: Clear skies throughout the area, including in San Pedro. Mainly fair and warm conditions prevail. Residents, especially those inland are advised to stay hydrated and avoid outdoor activity as much as possible.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny today and partly cloudy tonight with only isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms.

Outlook: Continuing mostly fair weather Thursday afternoon then a few showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly over the south and coast Thursday night, increasing over most areas on Friday.





The probability of cyclonic formation in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico has increased from 20% to 30%.

Recent satellite wind data indicates the area of low pressure located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has a well-defined circulation. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and displaced north of the center. Some slow development of this system remains possible over the next day or two if it remains over open water while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph along the coast of Central America. By early next week, the system will have another opportunity for gradual development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late this week into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.



An anticyclone dominates the area. A zone of instability continues to percolate in the Caribbean. It will bring rains on the weekend.



Flood Report and Forecast for September 1, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - Levels recorded today on the RIO HONDO continues to recede at Blue Creek North, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman and Douglas to the Coast. On the NEW RIVER, levels at Tower Hill and Caledonia are above normal and steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and steady. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town are above the normal and steady.

The BELIZE RIVER at Double Run is below normal and continues to recede. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels remain below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - The SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is near normal and continues to recede. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. Levels on the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS is normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is above normal and receding. The Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER is above normal and steady. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, levels are below normal and steady. The RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South is above normal and steady. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, levels are above normal and receding. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, levels are above normal and receding.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are above normal and receding.

FLOOD FORECAST

OUTLOOK - Countrywide Flooding is expected over the weekend

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, receding levels is expected to continue. On the NEW RIVER, at Tower Hill and Caledonia, above normal levels are expected to continue.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels is expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels is expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, above normal levels are expected to continue to recede.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, below normal levels are expected to continue to recede; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are expected to remain the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, receding levels is expected to continue through Friday morning. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, normal and steady levels is expected to continue. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, above normal levels are expected to continue to recede through Friday. On the Swasey and Bladen Branches of the MONKEY RIVER, above normal and receding levels is expected to continue through Friday. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, below normal levels are expected to continue. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, above normal and receding levels are expected. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, above normal and receding levels are expected to continue. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, above normal and receding levels are expected to continue.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, above normal and receding levels are expected.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 3, 2021

There is a lot cloud and ITCZ activity out there in the Caribbean, but no indication of any development as at present.

Dog walking at our neighbors, Tuto Belize. Photo by San Pedro Scoop









A Wednesday view in Corozal. Photo by Belize Scoop



A Windy afternoon in Corozal.