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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,395
Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: September 2, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear throughout the country. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Generally fair weather prevailing, then a gradual increase in moisture and instability sets in later.
Advisories: Residents, especially those living inland, are advised to stay hydrated and avoid outdoor activity as much as possible.
24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny skies today with only isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms. Tonight skies will cloudy with a few outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms over most areas, but more so along the coast.
Winds: E, 10-20 kts
Sea State: Moderate
Waves: 4-6 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Friday and Friday night is f0r cloudy to overcast skies with some outbreaks of showers adn thunderstorms over most areas and then increasing during Friday night.
Sargassum Forecast from August 31 to September 8: Satellite imagery show a few sargassum mats offshore and therefore there continues to be medium chance of new mats landing on beaches across the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am Hurricane Larry was located near Lat 13.0N and Long 32.3W or about 545 miles WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Island. The remnants of tropical cyclone Kate was located near lat. 28.5N, long. 52.9W or about 960 miles NE of the Northern Leeward Islands. There is a small area of low pressure, just off the coast of Nicaragua, which has a low chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next couple of days. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Recent satellite derived winds data show gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean Sea, except for fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, and fresh E to SE winds near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. A small are of showers with embedded thunderstorms is from 15N-17N between 80W-83W. This convective activity is likely associated with a small area of low pressure located over the coast of NE Nicaragua.

For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea combined with lower pressure over northern Colombia will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through the weekend. A small area of low pressure located near the coast of Nicaragua is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This low is expected to move inland over Nicaragua this morning, but a portion of the low's circulation could move over the Gulf of Honduras on Friday where development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information on this feature.


  High Low
Coastal 32° C
91° F
28° C
82° F
Inland 35° C
96° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 29° C
84° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
High: 5:49 AM Low: 1:46 PM
High: 8:32 PM Low: 12:48 AM (Fri)
Sunrise: 5:39 AM Moonset: 3:07 PM
Sunset: 6:05 PM Moonrise: 2:24 AM (Fri)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,395
Marty Offline OP
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Low Chance For Invest 91-L To Develop In The Western Caribbean Or The Western Gulf Of Mexico

Crown Weather

It looks like the tropical disturbance over the southwestern Caribbean seems to be becoming better organized. Satellite imagery today indicated that this system has a well-defined circulation, however, it still has disorganized thunderstorm activity with it..

A look at the steering winds reveals that it's going to be a close call between Invest 91-L remaining over the waters of the western Caribbean and running across much of Central America. One thing to note though is that the stronger Invest 91-L becomes, the greater the chances it moves into Central America and never moves into the western Gulf of Mexico.

Another thing to note is that the model guidance seems to be slowly trending towards showing development again in the western Gulf of Mexico early next week. So, it appears that there's going to be a fine line between Invest 91-L making it into the western Gulf of Mexico and developing and Invest 91-L burying itself over Central America and never developing.

-----

A small area of low pressure located near the coast of Nicaragua is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This low is expected to move inland over Nicaragua this morning, but a portion of the low's circulation could move over the Gulf of Honduras on Friday where development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur. This system could then move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and early next week, but by then strong upper-level winds would likely limit significant development. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
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On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the East at 20 mph creating rough sea conditions around our barrier reef. Today will be hot and windy with the expected high temperature set at 91f.

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Last edited by elbert; 09/02/21 06:59 AM. Reason: Fat fingers

White Sands Dive Shop
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Marty Offline OP
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The easterly Caribbean winds are getting back to normal, that is clouds are starting to build, probably little or no rain today, but that very active ITCZ area off Nicaragua has now moved northwards and is off Honduras. If these many individual swellups pull together, the could be the start of a storm, or at least a period of wet weather if it does come over Belize, which it does look likely. No rain on the Radar.

Today
Generally sunny, but with increasing clouds, not clear yet if they can develop into rain clouds as yet.

Tonight
Could be some night rain..

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Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 26°C 78°F Yesterday max. 34°C 93°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Clear skies. Current satellite views:

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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Lunchtime views. At Lily's Treasure Chest. Photo by San Pedro Scoop

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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,395
Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Mostly clear skies throughout the country, clear and sunny in San Pedro. Mainly fair weather will prevail at first with a gradual increase in moisture and instability. Flood watch:- There is the possibility for flooding to occur over low-lying and flood prone areas, as heavy rainfall is expected over the following few days.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells and isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. Skies will become cloudy at times with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms developing mainly along the coast at first. Then, activity will increase and spread to most places later tonight into tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Some showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain will continue around the country on Friday afternoon, but especially over the south and coast Friday night. Activity will linger mostly over northern and central areas Saturday morning, decreasing slightly.


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Zone of instability over Central America is approaching.

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Hello September, Belize's Patriotic Month. Photo by the Ambergris Today

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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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A lot of ITCZ activity and getting nearer to Belize, but I am not seeing any rotation in it.

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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,395
Marty Offline OP
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It's HOT and dusty out (photos from this morning taking a walk with the doggos). But looks like rain is coming... Photos by San Pedro Scoop

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A beautiful day at Ella's cool spot in Hopkins Village. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

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