Belize Weather Forecast: September 4, 2021

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#552478 09/04/21 06:04 AM

Joined: Oct 1999

Posts: 84,392

oregon, spr

Marty

Marty

Belize Weather Forecast: September 4, 2021

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Cloudy and rainy this morning, including in San Pedro. Moist and unstable conditions will continue today and tonight. Current radar and satellite imagery showing severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall activity around the country, especially over Belize city and surrounding areas.
Advisories: Operators of small crafts should exercise caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. There is a high possibility that strong thunderstorms with dangerous lightning, strong winds and heavy rainfall could occur over some areas. There is the possibility for flooding to occur over low-lying and flood prone areas as heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days.
24-hour forecast: Mostly cloudy today along with some periods of light rain, showers and thunderstorms mainly over northern coastal areas this morning; then a few showers or thunderstorms develop over the interior this afternoon. Tonight, some showers and thunderstorms will affect most places, but especially over southern and central areas.
Winds: E, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Choppy
Waves: 3-5 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: (Sun & Sun night) Cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms mostly over central and northern areas, decreasing by afternoon; then a few showers or thunderstorms develop along the coast Sunday night.
Sargassum Forecast from August 31 to September 8: Satellite imagery show a few sargassum mats offshore and therefore there continues to be medium chance of new mats landing on beaches across the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am a surface trough over portions of Central America and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to move west-northwestward during the next day or two, bringing locally heavy rains to these areas. Development is not expected during the next 48 hours. Hurricane Larry was centered near Lat 16.3N Long 44.6W or about 1140 miles East of the Leeward Islands. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, and two in the Caribbean.

Aside from convection associated with this waves, scattered moderate convection is occurring in the Gulf of Honduras in association with a low pressure trough over Central America. Otherwise, high pressure dominates.

Moderate to fresh winds encompass the central and eastern Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Locally strong trades are occurring off the coast of Colombia, and gentle to moderate east winds prevail in the northwest Caribbean. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, 4 to 7 ft offshore Colombia, and 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Larry will move to 17.2N 46.5W this afternoon, 18.4N 48.6W Sun morning, 19.7N 50.7W Sun afternoon, 21.0N 52.6W Mon morning, 22.0N 54.3W Mon afternoon, and 23.3N 56.0W Tue morning. Larry will change little in intensity as it moves well northeast of the Leeward Islands early Wed. Large swell generated by Hurricane Larry are expected to propagate across the waters E of the Leeward Islands Sun, then spread W of 65W Mon and Mon night. Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will pulse off Colombia through late today.

	High	Low
Coastal	31° C 87° F	268° C 78° F
Inland	33° C 91° F	23° C 74° F
Hills	27° C 80° F	20° C 68° F

TIDES:
High: 7:49 AM	Low: 3:07 PM
High: 9:17 PM	Low: 2:19 AM (Sun)
Sunrise: 5:39 AM	Moonset: 4:43 PM
Sunset: 6:03 PM	Moonrise: 4:17 AM (Sun)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 4, 2021 Marty #552479 09/04/21 06:05 AM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,392 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	A surface trough over portions of Central America and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to move northwestward during the next day or so, bringing locally heavy rains to these areas. The disturbance is forecast to emerge over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and then move northward or northeastward over the central Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit development through Monday, but environmental conditions could become marginally favorable for some gradual development on Tuesday or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. ...LARRY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... At 5:00 pm AST, the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 42.0 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the weekend. A turn to the northwest is forecast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Larry is forecast to become a major hurricane this weekend. For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 4, 2021 Marty #552480 09/04/21 08:06 AM
Joined: Dec 2006 Posts: 13,675 San Pedro Belize elbert
elbert	On Ambergris Caye this morning we have thunder and lightning with rain from throughout the night. The wind is from the North at 8 mph. White Sands Dive Shop https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 4, 2021 Marty #552481 09/04/21 08:15 AM
Joined: Oct 2001 Posts: 6,266 San Pedro AC Belize Diane Campbell
Diane Campbell	Great photo Elbert! What does your rain gauge say? Elbert: Three inches in the rain gauge.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 4, 2021 Marty #552482 09/04/21 09:16 AM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,392 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	There has been a very large area of swellup come out of all that ITCZ cloud area over night, causing a lot of rain, but most out at sea and up in Mexico, although a fair bit in northern areas. This very large bubble of high level moist cloud has still not moved away from the Yucatan area, but perhaps will over the next day or so. Today High level and low cloud, over most of Belize, mainly the north where rain will continue for most of the morning and some into the afternoon. Some rain out at sea, might come into coastal areas and a bit inland later. Tonight Less rain than recently. Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last Night 24°C 75°F Yesterday max. 31°C 89°F Yesterday Rain 12 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0.5 mm (0.2")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 4, 2021 Marty #552483 09/04/21 11:40 AM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,392 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	Still a lot of rain in the north, and some new rain starting in the south. Holy cow! LOUD thunder�shivering dogs piling on me�and RAIN! (San Pedro Scoop)The length of the storm! IIt also brought in (awakened?) crazed mosquitos this morning. A good morning to stay inside. Zone of instability in combination with a vortex in height, will give rise to strong thunderstorms this Saturday in the peninsula.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 4, 2021 Marty #552484 09/04/21 12:02 PM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,392 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	Present Condition: Cloudy and rainy throughout the country as a tropical wave moves through. Caye Caulker has endured 4.75 inches of rainfall since midnight. Moist and unstable conditions persist over the area. -A small craft caution remains in effect for gusty winds and rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. -A flood watch remains in effect for low-lying and flood prone areas over the next couple of days. -A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for dangerous lightning, heavy showers and strong damaging winds. 24hr Forecast: Cloudy with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, especially over inland areas. Showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms will increase over the south tonight and spread northward, especially along the coast, affecting central and northern areas tomorrow morning. Outlook: Isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms will develop around the country Sunday afternoon, increasing along the coast Sunday night and Monday morning. Crown Weather: Additional Western Caribbean Into Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Possible Beginning Next Weekend: There are two areas of potential concern over the next 10 to 14 days or so. The first is once again in the western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico where the model guidance (especially the GFS model, which now shows a strong storm in the western Gulf of Mexico around September 15-16) is forecasting the development of a tropical system in the western Caribbean late next week into early next weekend that moves into the southern and then possibly western Gulf of Mexico by about the September 12-14 time period. It seems the catalyst for this development is the combination of leftover energy and moisture in the southwestern Caribbean and the arrival of a tropical wave that's now located over the eastern Caribbean. At this point, this is nothing to be overly concerned about since it's still about a week away from even possibly happening. With that said, it is something that should be watched extremely closely, just in case.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 4, 2021 Marty #552485 09/04/21 05:56 PM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,392 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	More rain coming through, but not as bad as Mexico has been having.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 4, 2021 Marty #552487 09/05/21 04:08 AM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,392 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	Youth group at practice, Hopkins Village. Music by: Supa G A beautiful evening at The Lodge at Jaguar Reef A beautiful evening at The Lodge at Jaguar Reef. Photo by Hopkins Uncut