Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. Locally heavy rains are likely to continue today over that area. The system is forecast to move northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today, then move slowly northward or northeastward over the western or central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are only expected to be marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation, but some slow development is possible while the system moves across the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Hurricane Larry (125 mph) is intensifying and tracking to the northwest in the general direction of Bermuda at 14 mph.
91L, a low-pressure area, tracking northwest at 12 mph is spreading widespread tropical squalls across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico + Guatemala + ElSalvador + Belize. Squally weather will continue this weekend, September 4-5, 2021. The northern Gulf of Mexico is urged to monitor Invest 91L as a 30% chance of cyclone formation exists in the next five days.
We are monitoring an undesignated tropical wave near Aruba + Curacao + Bonarie, causing tropical showers September 4-5, 2021. This wave will continue to travel west at 9 mph towards Honduras + Nicaragua causing a good chance of squally weather September 5-6, 2021.
...LARRY IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...
At 500 PM AST, the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 47.1 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A somewhat slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by some intensity fluctuations. Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength through the early part of next week.For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here