...NICHOLAS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
At 4 a.m. CDT, the center of now Tropical Storm Nicholas was located inland over Texas about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Houston and about 35 miles (55 km) north-northwest of Freeport. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm should move more slowly to the northeast later today and then eastward by Wednesday over Louisiana. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A NOAA station at Galveston Bay, Texas recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) gusting to 68 mph (109 km/h). Nicholas should weaken further today and is forecast to become a tropical depression by Wednesday.
A tropical wave located just west of the African coast is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
The weather pattern for at least the next 10 days is going to favor a system that would be able to threaten the northeastern Caribbean, the Bahamas and much of the US East Coast. So, if Invest 95-L is not sheared apart and doesn't dissipate, it could be a big problem first for the northeastern Caribbean next Monday, then for the Bahamas late next week and then the US East Coast next weekend (September 25-26).For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here