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Belize Weather Forecast: September 15, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear this morning in the north, quite a few clouds in the south. Mostly clear skies in San Pedro. Mainly fair weather will prevail over most areas. Advisories: None. 24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny with only isolated showers or thunderstorms inland this afternoon and south tonight. Winds: E, 5-15 kts Sea State: Slight Waves: 1-3 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86 Outlook: For Thursday and Thursday night is for mainly fair weather with only isolated showers. Sargassum Forecast from September 14 to September 22: Latest satellite imagery suggest that Sargassum concentration offshore has decreased significantly. However, there is the chance that a few small mats could still drift onshore during the next few days San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: At 9:00pm last night Tropical Depression Nicholas was centered near Lat 30.0N Lon 94.1W, or about 15 miles WNW of Port Arthur, Texas. A low pressure area located a few hundred miles South of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better organized. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. . Click for more of the tropical weather outlook... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, and two in the Caribbean. An upper-level low is centered over Hispaniola, enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NE Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Abundant mid to upper level clouds cover Cuba, Jamaica and the NW Caribbean. This cloudiness is the result of strong upper level northerly winds. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, along with seas in the 2 to 4 ft range, except 1 to 2 ft over the NW Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue to provide gentle to moderate easterly winds basin-wide. By tonight, moderate to fresh winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras and Gulf of Venezuela and regional waters. Winds will further increase to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Honduras and the south-central Caribbean Thu night, continuing through Sat. Seas are forecast to build to 6-8 ft near the coast of Colombia by Thu night.   High Low Coastal 32° C 89° F 27° C 80° F Inland 35° C 94° F 23° C 74° F Hills 29° C 84° F 21° C 70° F TIDES: Low: 12:10 PM High: 7:30 PM Low: 11:04 PM High: 5:34 AM (Thu) Sunrise: 5:40 AM Moonrise: 2:12 PM Sunset: 5:54 PM Moonset: 1:29 AM (Thu) Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

We're watching three areas:

1) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. It has a high (80 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (90 percent) chance during the next five days.

2) A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves north-northwestward to northward across the western Atlantic. It has a medium (50 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (70 percent) chance during the next five days.

3) Another tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa toward the end of the week. Environment conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. It has a near zero chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance during the next five days.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a 12 mph wind from the South West. It's sunny with an expected high temperature of 89 f.

The Caribbean winds have been diverted up northwards, presumably hidden air moving up from the south. There is still high level clouds moving down rapidly from that earlier storm, which have been causing rain areas, mainly in the sea off PG, but a few very small showers in the north, but none on the radar now. Temperatures should be starting to drop now, daytime maximums are, but not the nighttime temperatures.

Looks as if today will be mainly sunshine, with a low chance of any rain showers.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 78°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

Present Condition: Mostly clear skies throughout the country, including in San Pedro. Fair and warm conditions prevail.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny this afternoon with isolated showers and the chance of isolated thunderstorms inland. Cloudy spells tonight and tomorrow with a few showers or isolated thunderstorms south tonight and mostly north tomorrow morning.

Outlook: A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over inland areas Thursday afternoon then mainly over the south and coast Thursday night, decreasing Friday morning.





Today there will be some scattered showers and storms in the region due to our Mayan trough and the arrival of tropical wave # 32.





Awesome experience to see a jaguar swimming from island to island on the flats while heading to the permit grounds.

Fly-fishing tour guide Michael Peralta and his guests witnessed a rare sighting on the northwest coast of Ambergris Caye on Tuesday, September 14th while on their way to the fishing flats. They suddenly spotted something swimming in the water and to their surprise, it was far from a marine creature, but a juvenile jaguar.

The big wild cat swam near the fishing boat, while followed by dolphins. Peralta said it happened around 7AM and from his judgment, the jaguar was swimming from Deer Caye to Ambergris Caye. "When he first saw us, he showed us his teeth and coiled up his tail," said Peralta. He said it was great excitement for him and his guests. Unexpected and stunning. According to him, it was a fast swimmer and was heading towards the area near Bacalar Chico National Park and Marine Reserve.



First sighting of the Qute car in San Pedro. Fits right into the neighborhood; it's smaller than a golf cart! Photo by the Ambergris Today



Flood Report and Forecast for September 15, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, levels are below normal and falling; and downstream to the Coast, levels recorded are above normal and falling. Above normal levels were recorded on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels are near normal but remains well below the low-level bridge and steady. River levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town are above normal and rising slowly.

A minimal increase in river levels was recorded on the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels remain below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - The SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is near normal and falling. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. Levels on the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS is normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is above normal and falling. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, and the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, above normal and falling levels were recorded. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, below normal levels were recorded. The TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is above normal and steady.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, an increase in levels is expected; and at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, normal and steady levels is expected. On the NEW RIVER, at Tower Hill and Caledonia, a minimal increase in levels is expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to increase minimally; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, normal and steady levels are expected; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, above normal levels is expected. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, a minimal increase is expected. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are expected to become steady then a minimal increase is expected. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, above normal levels are expected to continue. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, and the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, above normal levels is expected to continue. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, below normal levels are expected to continue. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, above normal levels are expected to continue.

REGIONS 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, normal and steady levels are expected to continue.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 17, 2021

Gorgeous day!!! The weather is hot but beautiful! Photo by San Pedro Scoop



Beautiful Wednesday in Hopkins Village. Photo by Hopkins Uncut