Belize Weather Forecast: September 17, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy this morning throughout the country, more so in the south and west. Partly cloudy in San Pedro. Generally fair weather prevails. Advisories: None. 24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and partly cloudy skies tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, with possible sligtly more over the southern districts tonight. Winds: E-SE, 10-20 kts Sea State: Moderate Waves: 4-6 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86 Outlook: For Saturday and Saturday night is for a similar trend. Sargassum Forecast from September 14 to September 22: Latest satellite imagery suggest that Sargassum concentration offshore has decreased significantly. However, there is the chance that a few small mats could still drift onshore during the next few days San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: A broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles SSE of the Outer Banks of North Carolina has a high chance of tropical cyclone development during the next couple of days. A broad area of low pressure located about 1,000 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next couple of days. . Click for more of the tropical weather outlook... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, and one in the Caribbean. A recent data from a scatterometer satellite pass and reports from buoy 42058 near 14N75W indicated a large area of fresh winds across the south-central Caribbean. Stronger winds are likely off the coast of northeast Colombia. Trade wind convergence is responsible for the line of showers and thunderstorms from central Panama to central Nicaragua. A few showers are embedded in the trade wind flow across the eastern Caribbean, but no significant convection is noted otherwise. Roatan in the Bay Islands of Honduras reported moderate to fresh winds, indicative of fresh to strong winds pulsing across the Gulf of Honduras. Buoy and altimeter satellite data confirm 6 to 7 ft seas over the south- central Caribbean and 8 ft is plausible off Colombia. Moderate seas are in place elsewhere except for slight seas in parts of the far northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will build into the Caribbean through Sat, supporting fresh to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras into early Sun. The ridge will weaken starting Sun as an area of low pressure currently well east of the area moves to the northeast of the Leeward Islands early next week. There is a medium chance this low pressure will form into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. Regardless of further development, expect increase winds, seas and thunderstorms east of the Leewards early next week.   High Low Coastal 32° C 90° F 28° C 83° F Inland 34° C 94° F 24° C 76° F Hills 28° C 82° F 20° C 68° F TIDES: High: 6:57 AM Low: 2:04 PM High: 8:51 PM Low: 1:26 AM (Sat) Sunrise: 5:41 AM Moonrise: 3:57 PM Sunset: 5:52 PM Moonset: 3:30 AM (Sat) Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

NHC continues to watch three area for possible tropical cyclone development. They are:

1) Invest 95L: Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized and somewhat limited in association with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could still form over the weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. It has a medium (60 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (70 percent) chance during the next five days.



2) Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina have changed little in organization this evening and the system still lacks a well-defined center. However, environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves northward to north-northeastward off the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts through this weekend. It has a high (7 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and next five days. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

3) Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave just offshore of the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance during the next five days.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

There is still a trace of air movement up from the south, but the easterly Caribbean winds are resuming, with high level coming down from the NNE, which could again, cause some clashing this afternoon. Ther were a few small rain shower areas earlier, but not now.

Looks as if today will again be mainly sunny, but with a bit more cloud than yesterday.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 79°F Yesterday max. 35°C 94°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

The ESE Caribbean winds are now well established, causing some typical clouds, and a few small showers. The high level air from the NNE is very thin, so presently not having any affect on our weather. But, if the low level winds result in rising hot air, they could impact on the high level winds and cause cloud to form, as happened yesterday, mainly over the mountains or just before the mountains, which could cause rain this afternoon.



Present Condition: Mostly sunny and HOT throughout the country, clear skies and very hot in San Pedro. Generally fair weather prevails over our area.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny during the daytime and clear to partly cloudy tonight. Generally fair weather will prevail, with isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms developing. There is the chance of a few showers or thunderstorms developing over the south during the night.

Outlook: For Saturday afternoon through to midday on Sunday is for continuing generally fair weather, with isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms developing.





The arrival of Tropical Wave 33 and its interaction with a wavy, will bring storms to the Yucatan Peninsula.



Flood Report and Forecast for September 17, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, levels are below normal and falling; and downstream to the Coast, levels recorded are above normal and steady. Above normal and steady levels were recorded on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels are remains below the low-level bridge. River levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town are above normal and steady.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are below normal and steady. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are below the causeway.

REGION 11 - The SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is near normal and steady. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. Levels on the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS is normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is above normal and falling. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are above normal and continues to fall. The DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is below normal and steady. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, levels are above normal and falling continues to fall. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, levels are below normal and continues to fall. The TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is near normal and falling.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are near normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, below normal levels are expected to continue; and at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, near normal and steady levels is expected. On the NEW RIVER, at Tower Hill and Caledonia, no significant change in river levels is expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, normal levels are expected.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, below normal levels are expected to continue; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, normal levels is expected. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, normal and steady levels is expected to continue. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are expected to continue to fall. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, normal levels are expected. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, no significant change in river levels are expected. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, above normal levels are expected to continue. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, below normal levels are expected to continue. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, normal levels are expected.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, normal and steady levels are expected to continue.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 20, 2021

Rain is happening, but just missing Belize as it is to the west.

It’s a good day to find some shade. Photo by San Pedro Scoop



This is Hopkins! Wow!



The Lodge at Jaguar Reef in Hopkins on Friday. Photo by Hopkins Uncut



A beautiful day for a cool frozen NiceCream Drink.