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Belize Weather Forecast: September 22, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy this morning, including San Pedro. A light and relatively moist northeasterly airflow prevails. Advisories: None. 24-hour forecast: Sunny with some cloudy spells today and cloudy at times tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur around the country, increasing especially over inland areas this afternoon and evening. Winds: N-NE, 0-5 kts Sea State: Slight Waves: 1-3 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86 Outlook: For Thursday and Thursday night is for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms lingering over the area. Sargassum Forecast from September 14 to September 22: Latest satellite imagery suggest that Sargassum concentration offshore has decreased significantly. However, there is the chance that a few small mats could still drift onshore during the next few days San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am, Tropical Depression Peter was centered near latitude 21.5N, longitude 66.1W, or about 215 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Tropical Depression Rose was centered near latitude 23.4N, longitude 38.4W, or about 1065 miles WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands. A broad area of low pressure several hundred miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better organised, and has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next day or two. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea Convergent trades are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between the southern peninsula of Haiti and Jamaica, as well as off Colombia. Light to gentle trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across much of the basin. Seas at the Mona Passage will be higher at 4 to 6 ft due to swell produced by Tropical Depression Peter. For the forecast, Peter will continue to weaken to a remnant low as it moves farther to the north of the area. As this occurs, trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will diminish through Thu night. Fresh trade winds will return to the south-central Caribbean by late Sun as high pressure builds north of the area.   High Low Coastal 31° C 87° F 24° C 75° F Inland 32° C 89° F 21° C 70° F Hills 26° C 78° F 18° C 65° F TIDES: High: 10:54 AM Low: 5:01 PM High: 10:51 PM Low: 5:25 AM (Thu) Sunrise: 5:41 AM Moonset: 7:01 AM Sunset: 5:48 PM Moonrise: 7:10 PM Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

...DISORGANIZED ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC....

At 5 a.m. AST, the center of Tropical Depression Rose was located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about 1065 miles (1715 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion by Friday.



...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT...

At 5 a.m. AST, the center of Tropical Depression Peter was located over the Atlantic Ocean about 215 miles (345 km) north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.



...HIGH PROBABILITY OF CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

The tropical wave 98L southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to organize better in recent hours but does not yet have a well defined center has a high probability of development of a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours with 80 % for 48 hours and 90 % for the 5-day trajectory continues uncertainty meanwhile we will have more accuracy as this system is formed keep an eye on its evolution in the coming days.



For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a 7 mph wind from the North Northeast. The sea around our barrier reef is calm. We have a lot of rain in the forecast but none yet. Today's expected high temperature is set at 87f.

There appears to be some mid or high level air over much of the Yucatan, and easterly Caribbean winds with patches of cloud and high level from the NE, presently clashing along the coast line, causing significant rain, presently mainly out at sea, but I expect more so inland later today.

Looks as if today will be a mixture of sunshine, cloud and scattered rains showers anywhere.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 27°C 81°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 2 mm (0.1") Over Night Rain 0.2 mm (0")

Flood Report and Forecast for September 22, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, levels are near normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER, levels are normal at Tower Hill and Caledonia.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER, levels are near normal and steady at Benque Viejo Town.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are below normal and steady. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels remain below the causeway and falling slowly.

REGION 11 - The SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is below normal and steady. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village is normal and steady. Levels on the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS is normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is above normal and steady. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are near normal and falling slowly. The DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is below normal and steady. The RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South are near normal and continues to fall. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, levels are below normal and steady. The TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is near normal and steady.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are near normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, normal levels are expected. On the NEW RIVER, at Tower Hill and Caledonia, no significant change in river levels is expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, no significant change is expected.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, no significant change is expected; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, no significant change is expected. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, normal and steady levels is expected to continue. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, no significant change is expected. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, and the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, no significant change in river levels is expected. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, levels are expected to continue to fall. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, and the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, no significant change in river levels is expected.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, no significant change is expected.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 24, 2021

Increasing rain patches over the land. Probably increasing over the next few hours.

Present Condition: Mostly cloudy skies with rain in the north and central areas. A light and relatively moist north to northeasterly airflow prevails over the area.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells during the daytime and cloudy at times tonight. Some showers and a few thunderstorms will occur around this country this afternoon and tonight, then mostly over southern and offshore areas tomorrow morning, decreasing.

Outlook: For Thursday afternoon through to midday on Friday is for isolated showers and thunderstorms.







Autumn arrives accompanied by scattered storms for this afternoon in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Quite cloudy, significant rain in the area, especially in the west and north of the country.

Lots of water spouts over the lagoons this afternoon. It rained buckets in town but hardly a drop on the North end.

Luna Encantadora!! Photo by Marlena Gomez