...SAM REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
At 5 a.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Sam was located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean about 940 miles (1510 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast to continue through midweek.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts - a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). Some fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during the next day or so. Thereafter, some slow weakening is forecast.
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An elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Peter is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Upper-level winds only appear marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance over the next few days as it moves northeastward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
A broad area of low pressure could form over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic early this week, to the west of the tropical wave that will be moving off the coast of Africa. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some development of this disturbance while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph through the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here