Belize Weather Forecast: September 27, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning, less so in the north. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Mainly fair conditions prevail. Advisories: None. 24-hour forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated. Winds: E, 5-10 kts Sea State: Slight Waves: 1-3 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86 Outlook: Generally fair with showers or thunderstorms being isolated, for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Sargassum Forecast from September 23 to September 29: There is a small to medium chance of new sargassum affecting beaches across the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am, Hurricane Sam was centered near latitude 15.2N, longitude 51.4W, or about 800 miles ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Peter have become a little better organized, and has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression again over the next couple of days. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, and one in the Caribbean. Favorable upper-level atmospheric dynamics and diurnal heating in the northern Caribbean allowed for the development of afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles. A few showers and thunderstorms are seen in the E Caribbean, near the Lesser Antilles with isolated thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean. while fairly tranquil conditions prevail in the rest of the basin. Overnight satellite- derived wind data show fresh trades within 100 nm of the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela, including the waters surrounding the ABC islands. Moderate to locally fresh trades are present elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. Sea of 3-6 ft are occurring in the central Caribbean, with the highest seas materializing in the south- central and SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas are 1-3 ft. Hurricane Sam was near 15.2N 51.4W 952 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Sam will move to 15.9N 52.2W this afternoon, 16.8N 53.3W Tue morning, 17.7N 54.4W Tue afternoon, 18.6N 55.6W Wed morning, 19.6N 57.1W Wed afternoon, and 21.0N 58.8W Thu morning. Sam will change little in intensity as it moves near 24.9N 61.6W early Fri. Meanwhile, moderate trades will continue over much of the Caribbean through Tue. Fresh trades over the south- central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds today. Gentle trades will then prevail over the Caribbean through Fri. Fresh trades will follow in the wake of Sam across the Tropical N Atlantic waters. Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles by later today through the middle of the week.   High Low Coastal 31° C 88° F 27° C 81° F Inland 34° C 94° F 23° C 74° F Hills 28° C 82° F 20° C 68° F TIDES: Low: 8:44 AM High: 2:15 PM Low: 6:38 PM High: 1:51 AM (Tue) Sunrise: 5:42 AM Moonset: 11:14 AM Sunset: 5:44 PM Moonrise: 10:30 PM Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

Couple models sniffing western Caribbean 2nd week of October. The first red wave could be the spark to kickstart things. Nothing solid to worry about just thinking out loud.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.



...SAM EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO INVESTIGATE SAM LATER TODAY...

At 5 a.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Sam was located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean about 800 miles (1290km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday.



For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Typical easterly Caribbean winds with some cloud. The earlier fog or low lying cloud is still covering much of Belize, which will burn off later. Only a small trace of high level winds from the NW

Looks as if today will be mainly sunny with significant clouds and a small chance of the odd rain shower.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 24°C 76°F Yesterday max. 31°C 88°F Yesterday Rain 4.7 mm (0.2") Over Night Rain 0.2 mm (0" )

Present Condition: Mostly clear except for a few clouds in the deep south. Mainly fair weather will prevail. It's a hot, sunny and BUGGY Monday on Ambergris Caye. Keep an eye on the storm information - nothing near us but it's cooking out there!

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, with the chance for a few more over the extreme south tonight.

Outlook: (Tuesday afternoon - midday Wednesday) Continuing mainly fair with only isolated showers or thunderstorms developing





There is one tropical wave in the Caribbean...



Sunrise this morning on Ambergris Caye. Photo by Marlena Gomez



Flood Report and Forecast for September 27, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, levels are normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER, levels are normal at Tower Hill and Caledonia.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels have gradually increased to above normal.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are below normal and steady. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels remain below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11- The SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is below normal and falling slowly. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village is normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, levels are normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is above normal and falling. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are above normal and falling. The DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is normal and falling. The RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia, is normal; and, at Big Falls South levels are near normal and increasing slowly. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, levels are normal and slowly increasing. The TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is near normal and steady.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, normal levels are expected. On the NEW RIVER, at Tower Hill and Caledonia, no significant change in river levels is expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are expected to decrease to near normal levels.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, no significant change is expected; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11- On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, no significant change is expected. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, normal and steady levels is expected to continue. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are expected to decrease. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, above normal levels are expected. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, normal levels are expected. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia, normal levels are expected; and, at Big Falls South, levels are expected to become steady. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, above normal levels are expected. On TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, levels are expected to increase minimally.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are expected to increase minimally.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 29, 2021

Monday view of the beach in Hopkins. Photo by Hopkins Uncut