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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: September 30, 2021

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear skies this morning throughout the country. Mostly clear and hot in San Pedro. Generally fair weather prevailing.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny skies today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated.
Winds: E, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Friday and Friday night is for similar weather conditions to prevail.
Sargassum Forecast from September 28 to October 6: There is a medium chance of sargassum affecting beaches, especially over northern Belize, during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am, Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 8.7N, longitude 27.3W, or about 550 miles SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. - Hurricane Sam was centered near latitude 22.1N, longitude 59.5W, or about 355 miles NE of the Northern Leeward Islands. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There is one tropical wave in the Atlantic, and one in the Caribbean.

Recent ASCAT wind data show gentle trades continuing over most of the basin. Scattered showers and tstorms continue near Cuba and Hispaniola as well as portions of the southeastern Caribbean, including Barbados and St. Vincent. Gentle trades are noted across the basin. Seas are 3 ft or less across most of the Caribbean Sea, except in the northeast Caribbean passages, where swell from Hurricane Sam will peak later today through tonight.

For the forecast, Hurricane Sam will move to 23.0N 60.2W this afternoon, 25.6N 61.4W Fri morning, 28.4N 61.8W Fri afternoon, 31.1N 61.3W Sat morning, and move east of Bermuda near 33.5N 59.9W Sat afternoon, and 35.5N 58.0W Sun morning. Swells generated by Sam are forecast to continue over Atlantic waters from off the northern Leeward Islands to north of the Mona Passage through Fri. Meanwhile, gentle trades will prevail over the Caribbean through Fri. Winds are expected to become moderate to fresh across the basin by the weekend.

  High Low
Coastal 32° C
89° F
27° C
80° F
Inland 34° C
94° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 29° C
84° F
19° C
66° F
Low: 12:19 PM High: 7:28 PM
Low: 11:21 PM High: 5:13 AM (Fri)
Sunrise: 5:42 AM Moonset: 1:47 PM
Sunset: 5:41 PM Moonrise: 1:06 AM (Fri)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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At 8 a.m. CVT ( 5 a.m. EDT), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean about 550 miles (885 km) south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic is expected through the weekend.

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At 5 a.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Sam was located over the Atlantic Ocean about 345 miles (555 km) northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and 825 miles (1325 km) south-southeast of Bermuda. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will continue to pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands this morning, and pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday.

[Linked Image]

91L: Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles has become limited. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive over the next few days, and significant development of this system is no longer anticipated. The disturbance is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a 10 mph wind from the East creating calm sea conditions around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is set at 89 f.


White Sands Dive Shop
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Marty Offline OP
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Relatively calm weather, easterly Caribbean winds are presently above the ground fog, which will clear over the next hour or so. Only a trace of the high speed high level winds from the north.

Looks as if today will be mainly sunny, with cloud developing, probably no rain.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 77°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

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Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Sunny skies throughout the country, including San Pedro. Mainly fair conditions prevail.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated along with chance isolated thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon and over the Toledo district tonight.

Outlook: Mainly fair conditions to continue Friday afternoon through midday Saturday. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated with the chance for slightly more activity over the south.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]


Crown Weather:
Western Caribbean Tropical Development Remains Possible Beginning Late Next Week

The model guidance support for tropical development in the western Caribbean has increased since yesterday with the European ensemble model guidance now showing a signal for tropical development in the western Caribbean late next week. Beyond this, the European ensemble guidance shows any tropical system to head for the eastern Gulf of Mexico and potential towards either the Panhandle of Florida or the west coast of Florida.

The GFS ensemble model guidance continues to insist that the western Caribbean is going to be a spot that really needs to be watched starting later next week with an eventual track towards the west coast of Florida or the Florida Panhandle as soon as next weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: Overall, I have no changes to my thinking in regards to possible tropical development beginning late next week and continuing through the week of October 11.

It still looks like we will see an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation push into the Atlantic Basin late next week. This should make the conditions much more conducive for tropical development by that time. The weather pattern also looks like it could be favorable for development during the first half of October with a large high pressure ridge over the northern US and lowering barometric pressures over the Caribbean. Finally, the Caribbean is often a hot spot for tropical development in October and November during La Nina years.

Given the preponderance of evidence presented, I still think that there is definitely a chance that we will see some sort of tropical development in the western Caribbean beginning late next week and continuing through the week of October 11.

With that said, this is still something that's possible and for now, it's just something to keep an eye on and nothing to worry about.


[Linked Image]

360 Degree Sunrise from Finca Solana, Corozal. (Click link for an 360 degree virtual aerial tour of our sunrise this
morning at Finca Solana)

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,398
Marty Offline OP
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Cool day on the beach. Thursday in Hopkins. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Monthly Weather Summary, September 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

September in Belize marks the peak of the hurricane seas and the secondary maxima for rainfall over most areas. Apart from tropical systems, rainfall is typically attributed to 6 Upper-Level Troughs, 7 Tropical waves, 3 Surface Troughs, 2 Cold Core Lows and 1 Mid-Upper Level low on average. However, the passage of tropical waves and surface troughs over the area was below average resulting in below normal rainfall over most areas.

The north Atlantic high-pressure ridge prevailed over the area during week 1 supporting a light to moderate easterly surface flow. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms were observed. Conditions became moist and unstable between September 3 to 7 due to a surface trough over the area and an upper level TUTT extending into the Gulf of Honduras that lingered throughout the week. Moist conditions extending through to the upper levels and the TUTT supported divergent conditions over Belize. This led to an increase in shower and thunderstorms activity across the country, especially over northern and central locations. The wettest days during this week were September 3 and 4 as the TUTT low became stationary over Belize fuelling rainfall and thunderstorm activity.

Week 2 continued moist through to the upper levels and unstable as a tropical wave approached the area. This wave crossed the country on September 9 brining with is a few showers and thunderstorms which started over the northern parts of the country and increased during the night. Most of the rainfall activity was behind this wave with showers and thunderstorms increasing and spreading over most areas on September 10, especially over central and southern locations. The surface winds during this period were predominately easterly and became north-easterly with the passage of the wave. At the upper levels, a ridge TUTT pattern prevailed with a west to north-westerly component and neutral to weakly divergent conditions. Moisture levels began to decrease after September 11 as the ridge pattern returned with a tight pressure gradient supporting moderate to occasionally gusty east to north-easterly winds. Another tropical wave approached the country on September 13, but no significant showery activity was associated with it due to dry lower and upper-level conditions and a neutral to weakly convergent pattern hence only isolated showers and thunderstorms were observed, mostly over southern locations.

A light east to east to south-easterly airflow prevailed into week 3 as the high-pressure ridge was the dominant feature influencing our weather from September 15 to 21. The surface winds became east north-east towards the end of the week. Most of the moisture was capped below 850 hPa while the upper levels continued dry. Mainly fair weather with overnight showers or isolated thunderstorms occurred over northern, coastal, and southern portions of the country. On September 18, a tropical wave coupled with an inverted trough at the upper levels crossed the country with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the south and mountainous areas. Tropical Depression Peter was to the northeast of Puerto Rico and Tropical Storm Rose was to the northwest of Cabo Verde Islands on September 21 but none of these systems posed a threat to Belize. The upper-level ridge supported an east to north-easterly flow and the TUTT which has become zonal persisted in the area.

Conditions became moister and more unstable during the last week of the month as moisture convergence occurred over the area due to an early season cold front over the Bay of Campeche. Winds were light and an east to north-easterly surface flow prevailed. At the upper levels, the nigh centre over the area supported a north to north-westerly flow along with a neutral to divergent pattern. Some showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms affected moistly southern, coastal, and offshore areas until September 27. Thereafter, moisture levels decreased in both the low and upper levels and the upper-level pattern became convergent at the end of the month. Mainly fair weather closed out the month with isolated showers and thunderstorms over the south and along the western border of September 30. At the end of this month, Hurricane Sam and Tropical Storm Victor were located to the northeast of the Lesser Islands and south of the Cabo Verde islands, respectively.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, most of the country experienced below normal rainfall. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show slightly above normal maximum/daytime temperatures and minimum/night-time temperatures were near normal except for Central Farm where slightly cooler night-time temperatures was observed.

Monthly Rainfall Summary

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Monthly Maximum Temperatures

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Monthly Minimum Temperatures

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Rainfall Observed: September 2021 (mm)

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Rainfall Observed: September 2021 (% Above/Below Average)

[Linked Image]

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