Belize Weather Forecast: October 2, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear skies this morning, a few scattered clouds. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Light easterly airflow prevails. Advisories: None. 24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be generally isolated. Winds: E, 5-15 kts Sea State: Slight - Light Chop Waves: 2-4 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86 Outlook: (Sun & Sun night) Cloudy at times with isolated showers and thunderstorms; with the chance for a few more over northern districts. Sargassum Forecast from September 28 to October 6: There is a medium chance of sargassum affecting beaches, especially over northern Belize, during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am, Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.8N, longitude 36.3W, or about 850 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. - Hurricane Sam was centered near latitude 32.8N, longitude 60.5W, or about 255 miles East of Bermuda. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea A fairly modest pressure gradient is supporting mainly moderate trades over the basin, with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Overnight ASCAT data show some locally fresh trades in the SE and south-central Caribbean. An upper-level trough extending from eastern Cuba to Costa Rica is supporting scattered showers and tstorms covering much of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, from Panama northeastward. West of 74W, additional showers and storms are found near Jamaica. For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area this weekend, centered along 34N. This will bring an increase in trade winds and seas across the central and E Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlantic this weekend through the middle of next week.   High Low Coastal 31° C 88° F 27° C 80° F Inland 34° C 93° F 23° C 74° F Hills 28° C 82° F 20° C 68° F TIDES: High: 6:25 AM Low: 1:51 PM High: 8:04 PM Low: 1:19 AM (Sun) Sunrise: 5:43 AM Moonset: 3:20 PM Sunset: 5:40 PM Moonrise: 2:59 AM (Sun) Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

...VICTOR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY...

At 5 a.m. AST, the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean about 850 miles (1370km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn toward the northwest over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)n from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Victor is now forecast to become a remnant low by Monday.



...SAM NOW MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND...

At 5 a.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Sam was located over the Atlantic Ocean about 255 miles (405 km) east of Bermuda and about 1035 miles (1665 km) south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Sam is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast is expected by tonight, with an increase in forward speed forecast through Monday. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts -a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Several automated stations on Bermuda have recently reported wind gusts near 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through today or tonight. Sam is likely to become a hurricane-force post-tropical low by Monday night or early Tuesday.



Additional development across the Atlantic is not anticipated through at least this weekend. Conditions become more interesting early next week as a broad disturbance develops over the north-central Caribbean and/or southwestern Atlantic. Confidence in the strength and positioning of this feature remains lower than average, and that has an impact on the subsequent potential for tropical development. Some forecast model guidance suggests no development takes place at all while other forecast model guidance depicts two low centers developing next week, one tropical and the other non-tropical. Until confidence increases as to how the overall environment comes together, it will be difficult to pinpoint any specifics with regard to tropical development.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a 12mph wind from the East. Today's expected high temperature is set at 88 f. A few clouds with rain in the forecast.

The fairly steady easterly Caribbean winds do have many patches of cloud, some causing the odd scattered rain showers in coastal areas. These rain showers probably reducing during the day, but might be a little more down south, where northerly high level cloud has been clashing. Temperatures are still ridiculously high, both day and night, they should be dropping now.



That hurricane Sam is now moving fast and moving away towards Europe now, the other possible storm, looks to me, as if it is collapsing.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 78°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

Present Condition: A few scattered clouds, mostly clear in San Pedro. Generally fair weather prevails.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells this afternoon and tomorrow morning and partly cloudy skies tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated. Slightly more is possible over northern and coastal areas tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Between Sunday afternoon and Monday midday is for similar weather conditions.







Good morning sunshine. Ambergris Caye today.



Today in Corozal. Photo by the Corozal Daily



Good morning from beautiful Almond Beach Resort at Jaguar Reef in Hopkins. Photo by Hopkins Uncut



***FIRE ENGULFS THE LITTLE ISLAND OF BONACA, OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS WHERE MANY BELIZEANS LIVE**

Bonaca Cay is part of the Bay Islands off the coast of Honduras just north of Roatan. Many Belizeans live in this little island paradise. Early this morning a fire broke out and has engulfed the entire center part of the tiny island.

A little rain here and there...



Sunrise today in San Pedro. Steel grey sea and clouds enclosing the bright orange rising sun as a rainstorm hits the horizon. Photo by Rosemary Smith.



Crown Weather:

By late next week and next weekend an area from the western Caribbean to the southwestern North Atlantic may be a spot to really watch for possible tropical development. It looks quite likely that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will push into the Atlantic Basin by late next and next weekend. This will cause the background state of the atmosphere to be favorable for tropical development, especially as we head into the weeks of October 11 and October 18.

In addition to this, the overall upper level weather pattern across North America should feature an upper level high pressure system over the northern United States as we head towards mid October and in response to this, we should see lowering barometric pressures from about the Bahamas southwestward into the western Caribbean.

Taking A Look At The Model Guidance – The GFS operational model and the GFS ensemble model are at odds with each other with the GFS operational model forecasting a sub-tropical storm forming near the South Carolina and North Carolina coast late next week and the GFS ensemble model not showing anything.

In addition, the GFS operational and the GFS ensemble model guidance seems to have pushed back its forecast of Western Caribbean tropical development until about the middle of October.

The Canadian model forecasts no tropical/sub-tropical development near the Carolina coastline like the GFS model does, but it does forecast tropical development in the western Caribbean by about October 12, which is in-line with the GFS ensemble model guidance and the GFS operational model.

A look at the European operational model guidance forecasts no tropical development over the next 7-10 days, but the European ensemble model guidance shows the central and western Caribbean waking up with tropical development by mid month.

Here Are My Thoughts: Even though the model guidance are kind of lackluster overall with their forecasts of tropical development over the next couple of weeks or so, I do think that we still need to keep an eye first on the area between the Bahamas and the Carolina coastline late next week where the weather pattern should be favorable for at least a non-tropical low pressure system to form there. It’s possible that it could gain sub-tropical storm status as it lingers near the Carolina coastline next weekend. This is not a sure thing by any means, but it is something that does need to be watched.

As for the possibility of western Caribbean, I think that given the favorable look of the Madden Julian Oscillation and a favorable pattern for tropical development, there’s a decent chance that we could see some sort of tropical development in the western Caribbean either as soon as next weekend or more likely during the week of October 11.