A little rain here and there...
Sunrise today in San Pedro. Steel grey sea and clouds enclosing the bright orange rising sun as a rainstorm hits the horizon. Photo by Rosemary Smith.Crown Weather:
By late next week and next weekend an area from the western Caribbean to the southwestern North Atlantic may be a spot to really watch for possible tropical development. It looks quite likely that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will push into the Atlantic Basin by late next and next weekend. This will cause the background state of the atmosphere to be favorable for tropical development, especially as we head into the weeks of October 11 and October 18.
In addition to this, the overall upper level weather pattern across North America should feature an upper level high pressure system over the northern United States as we head towards mid October and in response to this, we should see lowering barometric pressures from about the Bahamas southwestward into the western Caribbean.
Taking A Look At The Model Guidance – The GFS operational model and the GFS ensemble model are at odds with each other with the GFS operational model forecasting a sub-tropical storm forming near the South Carolina and North Carolina coast late next week and the GFS ensemble model not showing anything.
In addition, the GFS operational and the GFS ensemble model guidance seems to have pushed back its forecast of Western Caribbean tropical development until about the middle of October.
The Canadian model forecasts no tropical/sub-tropical development near the Carolina coastline like the GFS model does, but it does forecast tropical development in the western Caribbean by about October 12, which is in-line with the GFS ensemble model guidance and the GFS operational model.
A look at the European operational model guidance forecasts no tropical development over the next 7-10 days, but the European ensemble model guidance shows the central and western Caribbean waking up with tropical development by mid month.
Here Are My Thoughts: Even though the model guidance are kind of lackluster overall with their forecasts of tropical development over the next couple of weeks or so, I do think that we still need to keep an eye first on the area between the Bahamas and the Carolina coastline late next week where the weather pattern should be favorable for at least a non-tropical low pressure system to form there. It’s possible that it could gain sub-tropical storm status as it lingers near the Carolina coastline next weekend. This is not a sure thing by any means, but it is something that does need to be watched.
As for the possibility of western Caribbean, I think that given the favorable look of the Madden Julian Oscillation and a favorable pattern for tropical development, there’s a decent chance that we could see some sort of tropical development in the western Caribbean either as soon as next weekend or more likely during the week of October 11.