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Belize Weather Forecast: October 11, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Clear skies throughout the country, including in San Pedro. Fair and warm weather prevails. Advisories: None. 24-hour forecast: Sunny today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated. Winds: E, 5-10 kts Sea State: Slight Waves: 1-3 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86 Outlook: For Tuesday and Tuesday night is for continuing fair and warm weather with only isolated showers. Sargassum Forecast from October 5 to October 13: There continues to be a medium chance of sargassum affecting local beaches during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean, and a second tropical wave is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles on Tue. Please, see the Tropical Wave section for more details. Both systems have a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 5 days. Outside of the tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean, moderate trades are noted S of Hispaniola, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft near the tropical wave, 3-5 ft over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean, and 1 to 3 ft over the NW caribbean. Convection continues to flare-up over eastern Cuba ahead of an upper-level trough that crosses just E the Isle of Youth, Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds are seen per scatterometer data just S of eastern Cuba due to the convective activity. For the forecast, the tropical wave currently located along 54W could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands on Wednesday. A second tropical wave now moving across the eastern Caribbean, with axis along 67W/68W will move over Hispaniola today. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of days in association with this second tropical wave. A northerly swell event over the Atlantic waters will reach the NE Caribbean passages by Tue.   High Low Coastal 32° C 89° F 27° C 80° F Inland 35° C 95° F 23° C 73° F Hills 28° C 82° F 19° C 66° F TIDES: Low: 8:06 AM High: 2:22 PM Low: 6:51 PM High: 1:31 AM (Tue) Sunrise: 5:45 AM Moonrise: 11:06 AM Sunset: 5:33 PM Moonset: 10:21 PM Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

The Atlantic basin has no organized tropical systems at this time. The National Hurricane Center is watching three weather disturbances over the Atlantic basin.

One is a non-tropical low pressure area located about 75 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Recent radar and satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low has become less defined since this morning. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent any further development of this system while it moves slowly northward or north-northeastward through Monday. It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and five days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are still possible over portions of the North Caroling Outer Banks through Monday

The second is tropical wave located about a little more than 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. It continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive, and some limited development could occur during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. After that time, strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development. The disturbance is forecast to approach the central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early Tuesday. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands on Wednesday. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low (30 percent) chance during the next five days.

The third is another tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. It's producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit any development over the next day or so, but environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual development of the system when it is located near the southeastern Bahamas around midweek. It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance during the next five days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of days.



For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a breeze from the Southeast blowing at 8 mph creating a calm sea condition around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is 89f.

The weather is very unusual, still the slow Caribbean wind is from the south, looks as is some Pacific high level is perhaps coming up, over the Honduras mountains and so deflecting the Caribbean winds up. This is even going up into the Gulf. Regular fast high level winds are way to the north of us.

Looks as if today will be mainly sunny, some clouds now starting to build, no rain expected. No rain on the radar



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 77°F Yesterday max. 33°C 92°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

Crown Weather:

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico: Tropical development is not expected across the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico throughout this week.

Beyond this, however, it remains very uncertain as to whether we will see tropical development in the Caribbean during the final one-third of this month. Right now, the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation seems to be stuck over the Pacific and a majority of the model guidance insists that this MJO pulse will move into the Caribbean after about October 20.

I think that we will probably see western Caribbean tropical development chances increase beginning between October 20 and 25 with a fairly active western Caribbean lasting until about November 5-10. During this time period, I think that it's possible we could the formation of 2 to maybe 3 more tropical storms with at least one of them becoming a hurricane.

My forecast is based on looking at looking at the data, which tells me that the overall weather pattern will be favorable for western Caribbean tropical development beginning next week.

Present Condition: Generally fair and warm weather prevailing.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny skies today and partly cloudy skies tonight. Only isolated showers can be expected.

Outlook: For Tuesday afternoon thru to Wednesday afternoon is for partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and the chance of inland afternoon thunderstorms developing.







Flood Report and Forecast for October 11, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North and downstream at Santa Cruz. San Antonio. San Roman. and Douglas to the Coast, and on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia, levels are normal and steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER. reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways: and at San Ignacio. levels remain below the low-level bridge and steady. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town. levels are near normal and steady.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run. below normal and steady levels continue: and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON. lagoon levels remain below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun. below normal and steady levels continue. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village is normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS levels are normal and steady: and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge levels are above normal and falling. Levels on the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are normal and steady. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank. below normal and steady levels continue. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia. levels are normal and steady: and at Big Falls South. levels are below normal and steady. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan. levels are near normal and steady. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco. levels are near normal and falling.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER. levels are near normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North. and downstream at Santa Cruz. San Antonio, San Roman. and Douglas to the Coast. and on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia, no significant change is expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER. at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway: and at San Ignacio. levels are expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town. no significant change is expected.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run. below normal and steady levels is expected to continue: and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun. no significant change is expected. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village. no significant change in levels is expected. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS. and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge. no significant change is expected. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER. no significant change is expected. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank. and on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South. no significant change is expected. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan. and on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco. no significant change is expected.

REGIONS 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER. normal and steady levels is expected.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON OCTOBER 13, 2021.

This has been one of the hottest days, but temperatures are cooling off now.
Some rain is aiming for north Belize right now.

Temperatures are at present way above typical for October.
The Red and Blue dotted lines are the typical temperatures .
The night time temperatures have just not started to drop at all.
Even the day time maximums are still up as for June, Jul.
But generally 2021 has followed the yearly typical temperature rather closely, closer than many years do.

The heavy Red and Blue lines are the 31 day running average temperatures.
The Green does not mean very much, just the smoothed mid point between max and min.

Monday afternoon view from Corozal. Photos by Belize Scoop





Monday in Hopkins. Photo by Hopkins Uncut