Partly cloudy, more so in the north. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Slightly unstable conditions exist over the area.24hr Forecast:
Sunny with a few cloudy spells during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur around the country.Outlook:
For Sunday afternoon through to midday on Monday is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring mostly over southern and inland areas. Otherwise, showers or thunderstorms will be isolated.Crown Weather:
Things remain quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with no tropical development expected for at least the next few days.
By late next week and especially next weekend and beyond, the chances for tropical development in either the western or the central Caribbean is expected to increase. Two systems could be the catalysts for development – The first is a tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean that’s currently producing some scattered deep thunderstorm activity & the second is currently located over the east-central Tropical Atlantic. This tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern Caribbean around Friday and then reach the western Caribbean later next weekend.
A trough of low pressure that’s now digging southwestward into the western Caribbean is producing unfavorable conditions across much of the Caribbean. These unfavorable conditions are expected to continue for at least a few more days before a ridge of high pressure over the eastern United States produces more favorable conditions in the Caribbean during the second half of next week. It should be noted though that a new trough of low pressure digging across the eastern United States next weekend could produce some unfavorable conditions across the western Caribbean next weekend while the eastern Caribbean may be favorable for development.
I do think that we will see one last burst of activity in the Caribbean beginning as soon as late next week and next weekend with the week of October 25 particularly concerning in terms of development chances. Most past La Nina years have seen one strong Caribbean hurricane in October or November with the season shutting down right after that.
I think this season may be no different as an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation pushes into the Caribbean by late next week and next weekend. This means that I think that over the next couple of weeks or so there will be at least a couple of chances for tropical development. The first looks to be late next week and next weekend in the western Caribbean. The higher chance for development, looks to be next weekend in the central Caribbean and this could be a system to really keep an eye on during the week of October 25 in the western and northwestern Caribbean.
As for possible threat areas – It appears that much of, if not all of the Gulf Coast is now “closed” for the season due to strong wind shear. The exception may be far southwest Florida and the Florida Keys.
As for the Caribbean, Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and Hispaniola, I think could be at risk from anything that forms in the Caribbean.
Turning to the southwestern North Atlantic, the Bahamas and far South Florida would need to be watched closely for anything that tries to pull northward out of the Caribbean over the next couple of weeks.
I will be monitoring things closely in the Caribbean over the next couple of weeks or so and will have updates for you as needed.