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Joined: Oct 1999
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Belize Weather Forecast: October 16, 2021

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear skies, a few clouds in the south. Mostly clear in San Pedro. A light airflow prevails with generally fair weather.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny skies today, showers will be generally isolated this morning. This afternoon expected inland afternoon thunderstorms. Tonight skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy , along with a few showers and thunderstorms developing mainly along coastal areas.
Winds: Light and Variable, 0-5 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Sunday and Sunday night is for partly cloudy skies, showers activity will be generally isolated, except for the south where a few more showers can be expected.
Sargassum Forecast from October 12 to October 20: There is a low to medium chance of new Sargassum mats drifting onshore during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are over the central and eastern Caribbean waters south of 14N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue across the Caribbean basin, which will maintain tranquil marine conditions. A cold front will enter the NW Atlc over the weekend and move SE. High pres building in the wake of the front will bring a return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean Mon night.

  High Low
Coastal 32° C
89° F
25° C
77° F
Inland 34° C
94° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 28° C
82° F
19° C
66° F
High: 6:59 AM Low: 1:33 PM
High: 8:15 PM Low: 1:28 AM (Sun)
Sunrise: 5:46 AM Moonrise: 3:22 PM
Sunset: 5:29 PM Moonset: 3:14 AM (Sun)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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In what feels like a rare event, the Atlantic basin is devoid of an organized area of tropical systems. We are heading into the latter part of the season where development drops considerably as compared to the peak part of the season.

While conditions at this time do not favor any development, the season overall is not over and we'll have to maintain vigilance. We have seen recent years in which strong development of storms has continued well into November.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have clear sky and calm sea around our barrier reef. The NE breeze is 7 mph. Today's expected high temperature is 89f.

mar 4th.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
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Marty Offline OP
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Awesome photo Elbert!

Complicated high level weather at present, high speed air flow from the NNE over Belize and they Yucatan, but high speed high level from the SW over the Gulf and over the Caribbean from south of Honduras, Nicaragua. the Caribbean winds have come to a stop but there is a noticeable surface Tiger wind from the SW. There is significant high level clashing down along the Coast, causing a number of rain showers.

Despite all the high activity, looks as if today will again be hot and sunny, but with more clouds and a greater chance of rain showers, particularly this afternoon.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : (Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler)
Last Night 25°C 77°F Yesterday max. 33°C 92°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Partly cloudy, more so in the north. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Slightly unstable conditions exist over the area.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur around the country.

Outlook: For Sunday afternoon through to midday on Monday is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring mostly over southern and inland areas. Otherwise, showers or thunderstorms will be isolated.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Crown Weather:

Things remain quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with no tropical development expected for at least the next few days.

By late next week and especially next weekend and beyond, the chances for tropical development in either the western or the central Caribbean is expected to increase. Two systems could be the catalysts for development - The first is a tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean that's currently producing some scattered deep thunderstorm activity & the second is currently located over the east-central Tropical Atlantic. This tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern Caribbean around Friday and then reach the western Caribbean later next weekend.

A trough of low pressure that's now digging southwestward into the western Caribbean is producing unfavorable conditions across much of the Caribbean. These unfavorable conditions are expected to continue for at least a few more days before a ridge of high pressure over the eastern United States produces more favorable conditions in the Caribbean during the second half of next week. It should be noted though that a new trough of low pressure digging across the eastern United States next weekend could produce some unfavorable conditions across the western Caribbean next weekend while the eastern Caribbean may be favorable for development.

I do think that we will see one last burst of activity in the Caribbean beginning as soon as late next week and next weekend with the week of October 25 particularly concerning in terms of development chances. Most past La Nina years have seen one strong Caribbean hurricane in October or November with the season shutting down right after that.

I think this season may be no different as an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation pushes into the Caribbean by late next week and next weekend. This means that I think that over the next couple of weeks or so there will be at least a couple of chances for tropical development. The first looks to be late next week and next weekend in the western Caribbean. The higher chance for development, looks to be next weekend in the central Caribbean and this could be a system to really keep an eye on during the week of October 25 in the western and northwestern Caribbean.

As for possible threat areas - It appears that much of, if not all of the Gulf Coast is now "closed" for the season due to strong wind shear. The exception may be far southwest Florida and the Florida Keys.

As for the Caribbean, Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and Hispaniola, I think could be at risk from anything that forms in the Caribbean.

Turning to the southwestern North Atlantic, the Bahamas and far South Florida would need to be watched closely for anything that tries to pull northward out of the Caribbean over the next couple of weeks.

I will be monitoring things closely in the Caribbean over the next couple of weeks or so and will have updates for you as needed.

Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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October in Belize. Beautiful day! Photo by San Pedro Scoop

[Linked Image]

Consejo Shores today. Photo by the Corozal Daily

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Rapidly changing weather for many.

33CC3357-A62D-4616-93C9-3079A2CC40D1.png EB21F540-34E5-4769-8985-00F12238E5EB.png
Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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There is a very significant air movement down from the States, over the Gulf and coming our way, not seen on this picture, see second picture, but above that, there is high level air also from the States, down over the Yucatan and another fast, high level air over Honduras and Cuba, causing a dark blue clash line between them. I think our weather is likely to start to change soon.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Hopkins. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Caribbean nights. Photo by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

Garifuna Drumming at The Lodge at Jaguar Reef

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