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Belize Weather Forecast: October 18, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy skies this morning throughout the country. Partly cloudy in San Pedro. Light winds prevail; conditions continue somewhat moist and unstable. Advisories: None. 24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and cloudy at times tonight. A few showers or thunderstorms will affect mainly the coast and south this morning, inland this afternoon, then mostly the coast again later tonight. Winds: Light + Variable, 5-10 kts Sea State: Slight Waves: 1-3 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86 Outlook: (Tue & Tue night) Cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms over most areas on Tuesday, with showers increasing especially over the coast Tuesday night. Sargassum Forecast from October 12 to October 20: There is a low to medium chance of new Sargassum mats drifting onshore during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail across much of the Caribbean waters. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin will continue to lead to tranquil marine conditions today. A cold front across the NW Atlc will move SE through early Wed before stalling from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida. High pressure building in the wake of the front will bring a return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean tonight through Tue and then moderate to fresh winds late Wed.   High Low Coastal 31° C 88° F 25° C 76° F Inland 34° C 93° F 22° C 72° F Hills 26° C 78° F 19° C 66° F TIDES: High: 8:52 AM Low: 2:48 PM High: 9:01 PM Low: 3:05 AM (Tue) Sunrise: 5:46 AM Moonrise: 4:35 PM Sunset: 5:28 PM Moonset: 4:55 AM (Tue) Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

The Atlantic basin remains dormant with currently no organized tropical systems and no tropical development expected through at least the end of the week.

We are monitoring an expansive, tropical wave drifting to the west at 5 mph. This tropical wave, according to increasing model guidance, is hinting at possible cyclone development and or impacts in the upcoming week, October 21-23, 2021. However, as of Sunday, October 18, 2021 evening, the model signals for cyclone development are weaker.



The tropical season still has several weeks left as it runs through the end of November, so more tropical activity is possible farther down the road, but for the time being, all is quiet in the Atlantic.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a calm sea condition around our barrier reef and a hint of a breeze from the North. Today's expected high temperature is 88f.

The high level winds over Honduras are now working their way to being over Belize, and causing rain showers out at sea and in some coastal locations. The easterly Caribbean winds are still fairly light. Presently, a fair bit of fog or low lying clouds around, which will burn off as the sun gets hotter. No more cold front, that is gone.

Looks as if today will be a mixture of clouds and sunshine, with a high chance of the odd rain shower anywhere.



Temperatures in Belmopan : (Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler)
Last Night 25°C 77°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F Yesterday Rain 7 mm (0.3") Over Night Rain 1.9 mm (0.1")

Tropical wave number 39 is encountering with stationary front no. 4, will favor some scattered storms and storms in the peninsula. Two more tropical waves are coming from the central and eastern Caribbean.



This morning at Cayo Frances Farm & Fly. Photos by San Pedro Scoop

Many rain showers around, a few heavy, but those presently out at sea.



Present Condition: Partly cloudy, more so in the south. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over inland areas this afternoon, then over the coast and southern districts tonight. Showers and thunderstorm s will spread to most areas tomorrow morning.

Outlook: A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect most areas Tuesday afternoon, the southern districts and coast Tueday night, then inland and northern areas on Wednesday morning.





Flood Report and Forecast for October 18, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, levels are below normal and falling. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill levels are below normal and steady, and at Caledonia, levels are below normal and falling.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge and steady. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are below normal and falling.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are below normal and steady; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels remain below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, below normal and steady levels continue. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village is above normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS levels are near normal and falling; and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are above normal and falling.

On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are above normal and falling. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, levels are near normal and steady. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, levels are below normal and steady. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South levels are above normal and steady; and at Jordan, levels are below normal and falling. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, levels are below normal and shows a minimal rise.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are near normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, and on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia, no significant change is expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, no significant change is expected.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, below normal and steady levels is expected to continue; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, a minimal rise in Aver levels is expected. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change is expected. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, a minimal rise in Aver levels is expected.

On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, expect a minimal rise in river levels. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, no significant change is expected. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, normal levels are expected. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, and on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, no significant change in duel levels is expected.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, normal and steady levels is expected.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON OCTOBER 20, 2021, OR AS NECESSARY

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Rain coming up through southern Belize tonight.

Increasing clouds, rain mostly in the west.

Moonrise Hopkins.