Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2021 #553498
10/22/21 06:03 AM
10/22/21 06:03 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,873
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Cloudy conditions with wind and rain continue throughout the country including in San Pedro. Light and showery easterly airflow prevails.
Advisories: Small craft caution for possible gusty winds and locally rough seas near thunderstorms. A Flood Warning is in effect as flooding occurs over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially over the Belize and northern Stann Creek Districts.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy with sunny breaks today along with some showers or thunderstorms over most areas, but especially over coastal and northern areas this morning, then inland this afternoon. Cloudy tonight with some periods of light rain, showers or thunderstorms mainly over the coast.
Winds: E, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Light Chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: (Sat & Sat night) cloudy spells with a few showers and thunderstorms mainly over the coast Saturday morning, then mostly over the south Saturday night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 19 to October 27: Latest satellite imagery suggests that sargassum in our area continues to decrease. However, there is still a small chance that a few mats could drift into some areas during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, and two in the Caribbean.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward.

Fresh to strong winds are to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The sea heights range from 5 to 7 feet. Gentle to moderate trade winds are generally in the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 18N southward from 80W eastward, from 3 to 4 feet in the Yucatan Channel, and from 1 to 3 feet elsewhere.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands through the weekend becoming moderate across the central Caribbean early next week. During this period, moderate to fresh winds are expected over the south- central Caribbean, with winds reaching locally strong in the Venezuela basin. Gentle to moderate tradewinds will prevail elsewhere.


  High Low
Coastal 32° C
87° F
25° C
76° F
Inland 33° C
91° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 25° C
76° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES:
Low: 5:06 AM High: 11:14 AM
Low: 4:45 PM High: 10:39 PM
Sunrise: 5:47 AM Moonset: 7:24 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM Moonrise: 6:59 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553499
10/22/21 06:03 AM
10/22/21 06:03 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,873
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
The Atlantic basin still remains quiet in terms of tropical activity with no organized tropical systems and no development expected through at least the last few days of October.

The tropical season runs through the end of November and therefore still has more than a month left to go, so more tropical activity still remains possible. Wind shear may become more favorable for tropical development in the Caribbean in early November, but all is quiet in the Atlantic for the time being.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553500
10/22/21 07:28 AM
10/22/21 07:28 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,620
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
.
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have spells of torrential downpours. The sea around our barrier reef is calm from a 7mph Eastern wind. Today's expected high temperature is set at 87 f.

FB_IMG_1630326911982.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553501
10/22/21 09:48 AM
10/22/21 09:48 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,873
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Friday morning at San Pedro. Photos by Belize Scoop

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Crown Weather:

Things are still quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with no tropical development expected through this weekend into next week. Beyond this, however, there are strong signals in all of the model guidance that point to tropical development becoming a concern across the western and central Caribbean by next weekend into the very few days of November.

The catalyst for this development seems to be a tropical wave that’s currently located about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa. It’s expected that this tropical wave will head westward reaching the eastern Caribbean by about Tuesday and then the central and western Caribbean towards later next week.

[Linked Image]

What looks to kick off potential development is the tail end of a frontal system connected to a departing storm system that heads for Atlantic Canada late next week. Once this front lifts out, it could leave behind a piece of energy in the central Caribbean that interacts with the tropical wave leading to possible tropical development by about November 1.

Given that all of the model guidance are not only showing the possibility of tropical development, but they are now very consistent on the time frame of the first couple of days or so of November, I think there’s a fairly decent possibility that we could see some sort of western and central Caribbean beginning later next weekend and then potentially really getting going by the first few days of November.

Late season tropical systems during La Nina years (like this one) are common. In addition to this, an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to help to produce an eastern Pacific tropical storm and possibly a hurricane this weekend. This same upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is also beginning to move into the Caribbean and will continue to propagate into the Atlantic Basin over the next week to ten days or so. The La Nina conditions combined with that upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is quite possibly going to produce a tropical system in the western or central Caribbean by around November 1. I put the chances of this occurring at around 30 to 40 percent or so.

Even though things will remain quiet for about the next 7 days or so, I think the chance for tropical development around November 1 in the western and central Caribbean is something to certainly keep an eye on.

========================

Here is a satellite image showing widespread tropical squalls across the Caribbean basin and northern South America.

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553502
10/22/21 10:13 AM
10/22/21 10:13 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,873
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
The cloud over Honduras yesterday, has been moving slowly up northwards and much of it is back in the Caribbean and some coming up the Belize coast and causing a lot of cloud, and again mainly in the north.

Looks as if today will again be mainly cloudy, and with significant rain anywhere, but mainly in the north.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : (Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler)
Last Night 23°C 74°F Yesterday max. 29°C 85°F Yesterday Rain 31.1 mm (1.2") Over Night Rain 1 mm (0.04")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553504
10/22/21 11:37 AM
10/22/21 11:37 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,873
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Flood Report and Forecast for October 22, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, all levels are below normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, levels are near normal and reported a minimal rise this morning; and at Caledonia, levels are near normal and falling.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge and slowly rising. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are below normal and steady.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are below normal and rising slowly; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels remain below the causeway and rising slowly.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels are below normal and rising slowly. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village is above normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS levels are near normal and rising slowly; and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are above normal and falling.

On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, above normal and falling. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, levels are below normal and steady. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia, levels are above normal and steady; and at Big Falls South, levels are near normal and steady. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, above normal and falling levels was recorded this morning. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, levels are above normal and falling.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are above normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

Localized Flood Threat continues through the weekend, especially for Coastal areas.

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, near normal levels are expected; and on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, levels are expected to rise to normal levels; and at Caledonia, above normal levels are expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are expected to rise to normal.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are expected to increase to near normal levels; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11- On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, above normal levels are expected. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, above normal levels are expected. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, levels are expected to increase to normal levels; and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, above normal levels are expected to continue.

On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, above normal levels are expected. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, levels are expected to rise to normal levels. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, above normal levels are expected. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, a Flood Threat remains in effect as the low-level bridge may become inundated; and at Jordan, above normal levels are expected to continue. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, above normal levels are expected to continue.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, above normal levels are expected.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON OCTOBER 25, 2021, OR AS NECESSARY

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553505
10/22/21 12:02 PM
10/22/21 12:02 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,873
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy and some rain throughout the country, including in San Pedro. Moist and relatively unstable conditions persist over the area. A flood watch remains in effect for flooding in low-lying and flood prone areas. A small craft caution is in effect for possible gusty winds and locally rough seas near thunderstorms, developing especially during nighttime and early morning hours.

24hr Forecast: Skies will be cloudy at times over some areas. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms will develop mostly over southern and inland areas this afternoon; then, some showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain will occur mainly along coastal areas tonight and tomorrow morning.

Outlook: A few showers or isolated thunderstorms are likely to occur mainly over inland areas on Saturday afternoon, increasing over southern and coastal areas Saturday night into Sunday morning.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

A trough to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula and the arrival of the tropical wave #41 will leave rains and scattered storms in the region.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553506
10/22/21 07:08 PM
10/22/21 07:08 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,873
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Looks as if that Caribbean cloud has dispersed and the high level coming in from the NW, so perhaps a dry night.
There is talk of a cold front from the States, which might come down our way, presently I am not seeing that yet.

4189BF4B-E953-4D98-A443-631E24156CEB.png3EF1C1FD-B2EC-413C-87C4-EEA5EA3734C8.png
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553507
10/23/21 04:28 AM
10/23/21 04:28 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,873
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Friday in San Pedro... Photo by Belize Scoop

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Front row seat in paradise. Full moonrise in Hopkins. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]


Links
Portofino Resort- Now with a new BEACH BAR!!
Click for excellent scuba lessons with Elbert Greer!
Chaa Creek is an award-winning luxury Belize Resort, rated as one of the worlds best Eco Lodges. We are a pioneer in adventure travel to Belize since 1981!
Maruba Beach Klub and Spa is the premiere Secret Beach spa and restaurant located on the crystal blue waters of the Caribbean Sea at the center of Secret Beach, Belize
First Class Accommodations for the Budget Traveler
First Class Accommodations for the Budget Traveler

Things to do
Specials & Events
Calendar
SPTB Calendar of Events

News
Daily News
Daily Weather

Classified Ads
BelizeNews.com
San Pedro Sun
Ambergris Today
SP Town Council
Channel 7
Channel 5
Amandala
ReefTV
Love FM
The Reporter
PLUS TV
TV Newscasts
Radio Stations

Click for our
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites
To Get Your Questions Answered

Event Guides
Event Calendar
Specials & Events
Things to Do
SanPedroScoop
Cayo Event Calendar

Blogs
San Pedro Scoop!
Tia Chocolate
Tacogirl
My Beautiful Belize
I-Travel Belize
Belize Adventure
Belize Hub
Romantic Travel
Belize Happy Adventures
Conch Creative
Caribbean Culture & Lifestyle
More Blogs...
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites
White Sands Dive Shop - 5 Star PADI Dive Facility - Daily diving, SCUBA instruction and Snorkeling
Caribbean Inspired All Natural Condiments & Spice Blends, Over 100 are Gluten Free!
We handle all aspects of the purchase of your Real Estate in Belize. From in depth property searches to your final closing.
Click for Ian Anderson's Caves Branch, Welcome to a World of Adventure
Lil Alphonse has snorkel equipment to fit anyone as well as Marine Park Tickets and flotation devices to assist those not as experienced.
Coastal Xpress offers a daily scheduled ferry run to most resorts, restaurants and private piers on the island of Anbergris Caye. We also offer  private and charter water taxi service.
Cayo Espanto
Click for Cayo Espanto, and have your own private island
More Links
Click for exciting and adventurous tours of Belize with Katie Valk!
ShoutChat Box
Who's Online Now
0 registered members (), 87 guests, and 0 spiders.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Statistics
Forums44
Topics78,334
Posts498,319
Members20,263
Most Online7,413
Nov 7th, 2021



AmbergrisCaye.com CayeCaulker.org HELP! Visitor Center Goods & Services San Pedro Town
BelizeSearch.com Message Board Lodging Diving Fishing Things to Do History
BelizeNews.com Maps Phonebook Belize Business Directory
BelizeCards.com Picture of the Day

The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members
and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.

Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.1