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Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2021 #553545
10/25/21 06:04 AM
10/25/21 06:04 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,923
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Clear skies throughout the country including in San Pedro. Mainly fair conditions prevail.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny today and partly cloudy with isolated showers or thunderstorms and the chance for a few more inland this afternoon then over the south tonight.
Winds: E-SE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Light chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: Mainly fair with isolated showers or thunderstorms developing for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 19 to October 27: Latest satellite imagery suggests that sargassum in our area continues to decrease. However, there is still a small chance that a few mats could drift into some areas during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea, one in the Atlantic, and one is over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Aside from the convection associated with the waves, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the east and central Caribbean, with the exception of light and variable winds over the SW portion of the basin. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are observed over the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft over the south-central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 7-9 ft are E of the Windward Islands.

For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands and across the eastern Caribbean through tonight. Winds are also expected to pulse fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela through tonight. A cold front is expected to reach the NW Caribbean Thu night into Fri morning, with seas building to 8-9 ft in the Yucatan Channel later on Fri.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
26° C
79° F
Inland 34° C
94° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
Low: 7:12 AM High: 1:06 PM
Low: 5:42 PM High: 12:29 AM (Tue)
Sunrise: 5:48 AM Moonset: 9:59 AM
Sunset: 5:24 PM Moonrise: 9:12 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553546
10/25/21 06:04 AM
10/25/21 06:04 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,923
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form off the east coast of the United States during the next day or so. The frontal low will move generally north-northeastward through the middle of the week, and the system will likely bring rain and wind impacts to portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. By the end of the week, the low could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves eastward away from the northeast U.S. coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Linked Image]

The Atlantic basin remains quiet with no organized tropical systems, and no development is expected during the next few days.

The tropical season runs through the end of November and still has close to a month to go, so more tropical activity still remains possible. Wind shear may become more favorable for tropical development in the Caribbean in early November, but all is quiet in the Atlantic for the time being.

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553547
10/25/21 06:34 AM
10/25/21 06:34 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,923
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Crown Weather:

Tropical Development Remains Possible In The Western Caribbean Next Week: I think that there’s the possibility for some sort of tropical development to occur in the western Caribbean next week. A tropical wave is now heading across the Windward Islands and will move into eastern Caribbean over the next couple of days and then into the central and western Caribbean by late this week. It still looks as if a piece of energy breaking off from a departing frontal boundary late this weekend and early next week may combine with that tropical wave to spawn some sort of tropical development in the western Caribbean next week.

I’m standing firm on my forecast that we could see some sort of tropical development next week in the western or even the southwestern Caribbean. Late season tropical systems during La Nina years (like this one) are common. In addition to this, an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to continue moving into the Atlantic Basin this week into next week.

The combination of the La Nina conditions and that upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation could help to produce a tropical system in the western or southwestern Caribbean next week. I still put the chances of this occurring at around 30 to 40 percent or so.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553548
10/25/21 08:03 AM
10/25/21 08:03 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,625
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the East at 15 mph creating a moderate sea condition around our barrier reef. Today's high temperature is set at 88 f.

25th.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553549
10/25/21 09:11 AM
10/25/21 09:11 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,923
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
The Caribbean winds are from the SE this morning, at least over north Belize, little or no wind further south, just a trace of high level cloud from the north. A cold bubble coming down from Canada, but unlikely to get to us.

Looks like today will be mainly sunny with cloud developing, no rain expected.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : (Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler)
Last Night 26°C 78°F Yesterday max. 32°C 89°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553550
10/25/21 11:10 AM
10/25/21 11:10 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,923
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Our temperatures this year, have been very close to the long term average temperatures.
Long term averages are dotted red and blue lines.
But they have not been dipping down in September as is normal.
And now running uncomfortably high, both day max and night minimums.
OK, the evenings are getting cooler earlier, so some relief.
Then we had that unusual warm period in early October.
OK, so the rains did drop the temperatures last week, but now they are going back up again.

[Linked Image]

The heavy red and blue lines are the 31 day running averages.
The thin red and blue are the actual daily max and min. But the heavy lines for the last 15 days will be the daily max and min, not enough time for the running averages to show as yet.
The green line is just the smoothed mid point between max and min and has no real significance.

Current satellite view:

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553558
10/25/21 12:00 PM
10/25/21 12:00 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,923
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Mostly clear skies throughout the country, including in San Pedro. Warm and mainly fair weather conditions prevail.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. Showers, if any, will be isolated along with the chance of a thunderstorm developing inland this afternoon and over the south tonight.

Outlook: From Tuesday afternoon through to midday on Wednesday is for continuing mainly fair, warm and dry weather.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Another tropical wave coming from the Caribbean.

[Linked Image]

Monday morning foam view on Corozal. Photo by Belize Scoop

[Linked Image]

Flood Report and Forecast for October 25, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, all levels are below normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, levels are normal and steady; and at Caledonia, levels are below normal and steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge and steady. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are below normal and steady.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are below normal and falling; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels remain below the causeway and rising slowly.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels are below normal and falling. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village is above normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS and the SETTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are above normal and decreasing.

On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are above normal and falling. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, levels are below normal and steady. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia, levels are near normal and steady; and at Big Falls South, levels are above normal and steady. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, levels are above normal and steady; and at Jordan, levels are below normal and falling. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, levels are normal and falling.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are above normal and falling.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, below normal levels are expected; and on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and at Caledonia, below normal levels are expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, below normal and falling levels are expected. rise to normal.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are expected to continue to decrease; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, below normal levels are expected; and on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, above normal levels are expected. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS; and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are expected to decrease.

On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, normal levels are expected. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, below normal levels are expected. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia normal and falling levels are expected; and at Big Falls South, above normal and falling levels are expected. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, above normal and steady levels are expected; and at Jordan, below normal levels are expected to continue. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, below normal levels are expected.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, normal levels are expected.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON OCTOBER 27, 2021, OR AS NECESSARY

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553559
10/25/21 03:39 PM
10/25/21 03:39 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,923
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Scattered rain showers in parts of central Belize.

34109A44-55F6-4748-9468-E764B513911C.png7A379EB9-9571-4301-875A-F90E930E6C13.png
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553561
10/26/21 04:23 AM
10/26/21 04:23 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,923
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Monday’s afternoon view from Corozal. The first picture is the sea view. And, the second picture is a view from The Corozal Market. Photo by Belize Scoop

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Absolutely beautiful weather in Hopkins Village, Photos by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Today's sunset in Hopkins Village

[Linked Image]

Garifuna Collective Band rehearsals at Swinging Armadillos in Hopkins Village



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