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Belize Weather Forecast: October 28, 2021 #553628
10/28/21 06:04 AM
10/28/21 06:04 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,839
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 28, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear skies throughout the country including in San Pedro. Fair and warm weather will prevail across much of the country today, ahead of an approaching cold front.
Advisories: A small craft caution will likely go into effect this evening.
24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny and warm today, with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over inland areas this afternoon. Then, cloudy at times tonight, along with a few showers, thunderstorms and periods of rains over most of the country.
Winds: E, 5-10 kts
Sea State: Choppy
Waves: 3-5 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: A northerly airflow with the cold front will support cool temperatures. A few showers, periods of rain, and thunderstorms are expected to linger over most areas on Friday, decreasing during the night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 26 to November 3: The chances of new sargassum mats drifting ashore is expected to remain low during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There is one tropical waves in the Atlantic, and none in the Caribbean.

Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, and light and variable winds over the SW Caribbean particularly S of 11N. Southerly winds prevail across the NW part of the basin ahead of the cold front currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are generally 3-6 ft, except in the lee of Cuba and near the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua where seas of 1-3 ft are observed. Multilayered clouds, with possible showers are moving NE across the SE Caribbean ahead of a mid to upper level trough that extends from the Mona Passage to the SW Caribbean. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is near 12N80W, just ahead of a surface trough analyzed near 80W from 15N southward. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will produce isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, a weak ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean through tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to reach western Cuba and the NW Caribbean. The front will extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by midday Fri, from central Cuba to NE Honduras on Fri night, then stall from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua over the weekend while dissipating.


  High Low
Coastal 33° C
91° F
24° C
76° F
Inland 36° C
96° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 29° C
84° F
19° C
67° F
TIDES:
Low: 10:29 AM High: 4:15 PM
Low: 7:22 PM High: 3:18 AM (Fri)
Sunrise: 5:49 AM Moonset: 12:28 PM
Sunset: 5:22 PM Moonrise: 11:50 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 28, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553629
10/28/21 06:04 AM
10/28/21 06:04 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,839
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
A cold front is approaching the area of Belize.

We continue to track a series of tropical waves mostly tracking east to west across the Atlantic basin. Although NO CYCLONE formation is expected, squally weather is occurring across the region. Take precautions as needed against stronger storms. A flash flood threat is possible in areas with persistent (constant) rain.

[Linked Image]

There are still currently no organized tropical systems in the Atlantic basin; however, strong low pressure off the East coast may become tropical or subtropical this weekend as it tracks to the east then southeast over relatively warmer waters. This is the same low pressure system that brought soaking rainfall and damaging winds to parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic earlier this week.

The tropical season runs through the end of November and still has a month to go, so more tropical activity still remains possible. Wind shear may become more favorable for tropical development in the Caribbean in early November, but all is quiet in the Atlantic for the time being.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 28, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553630
10/28/21 07:47 AM
10/28/21 07:47 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,839
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Crown Weather

Even though the overall large scale weather pattern is favorable for tropical development, it appears that it probably will not happen. The only area to possibly watch is near the far southwestern Caribbean where brief tropical development is possible next week, although, it is looking more likely that any tropical development probably will wait until the tropical disturbance reaches the eastern Pacific.

The reason why this is occurring is because a large high pressure ridge near the Caribbean seems to be stronger than what many guidance members previously forecast. This has led to any disturbances being squashed to the south and not being able to lift northward. This means that land interaction with Central America will prevent development.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 28, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553631
10/28/21 08:28 AM
10/28/21 08:28 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,839
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
The cool front is crossing the Gulf, some of its lower front is already on the Yucatan. It is backing away the Caribbean winds, allowing some Tiger wind to come in from the SW over Belize. The Clear sky should have resulted in a cool night, but ironically, a cold front pushing down, initially, results in warmer weather so we had a very warm night.

Presently, looks as if we will initially, have a hot sunny morning after the fog has burnt off, could be some rain late this afternoon.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : (Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler)
Last Night 27°C 80°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 28, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553633
10/28/21 10:16 AM
10/28/21 10:16 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,839
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Cold front no. 6 Aké is just north of the Peninsula.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 28, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553636
10/28/21 12:04 PM
10/28/21 12:04 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,839
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Clear skies throughout the country, including in San Pedro. An approaching cold front will cause conditions to become moist and unstable during the next 24 to 36 hours. A small craft caution will likely go into effect this evening. A strong thunderstorm watch will likely go into effect tonight.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny this afternoon with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over inland areas. Skies will become cloudy with a few showers, thunderstorms, and periods of rain over most areas tonight and tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Cooler temperatures with a few showers or periods of rain lingering over the area Friday afternoon and night, decreasing Saturday morning.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Cold front Aké (No. 6) is already very close to the peninsula.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 28, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553637
10/28/21 12:21 PM
10/28/21 12:21 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,839
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
The cold front has now stopped the easterly Caribbean clouds and winds. New cloud forming in the north related to the cool air coming down from the NW. There is a small are of clashing in the mountains, causing a small rain area, this might increase this afternoon in a few places.

341B775B-70F0-403D-A259-1564D65686AC.png
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 28, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553639
10/29/21 04:22 AM
10/29/21 04:22 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,839
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Cold front approaching Belize. Image from late Thursday night.

[Linked Image]

Thursday afternoon in Hopkins. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Thursday’s evening view from Corozal. Photo by Belize Scoop

[Linked Image]


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