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Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: October 29, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy skies throughout the country including in San Pedro. A cold front is passing over the country.
Advisories: A small craft caution is in effect for occasionally gusty winds and locally rough seas.
24-hour forecast: Mostly cloudy today and cloudy at times tonight. A few showers or periods of light rain and isolated thunderstorms mainly over central and offshore areas this morning, decreasing; activity will linger over the south by this afternoon. Then, cool and windy with the chance of a few showers or periods of light rain over the south coast tonight; while mostly dry elsewhere.
Winds: NW, 10-20 kts Gusty
Sea State: Choppy - Rough
Waves: 3-7 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: Mild conditions with little or no rainfall for Saturday and Saturday night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 26 to November 3: The chances of new sargassum mats drifting ashore is expected to remain low during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There is one tropical wave in the Atlantic, and none in the Caribbean.

A cold front has breached the NW Caribbean extending from near the western tip of Cuba to northern Belize and across the Yucatan Peninsula. A line of thunderstorms is ahead of the front north of 21N to across western Cuba, with additional activity noted in the Gulf of Honduras to across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and into Guatemala. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds have filtered in behind the front, while NW swell will quickly build to greater than 8 ft by the afternoon. Ahead of the front, light to gentle E-SE flow is west of 80W, with moderate to locally fresh E-SE flow east of 80W, except light and variable winds in the SW Caribbean outside of any convection. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft across the western Caribbean, 4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean where winds are the strongest, near fresh, and 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the cold front will move through the NW Caribbean into the weekend, before stalling from the Windward Passage to northern Nicaragua Sun. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of up to 12 ft can be expected in the wake of the cold front, especially in and near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a weak ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea ahead of the front will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin, with locally fresh winds possible in the Gulf of Honduras and off the coast of Venezuela.


  High Low
Coastal 27° C
80° F
22° C
72° F
Inland 27° C
80° F
20° C
68° F
Hills 21° C
70° F
17° C
63° F
TIDES:
Low: 11:31 AM High: 5:39 PM
Low: 10:48 PM High: 4:34 AM (Sat)
Sunrise: 5:50 AM Moonset: 1:12 PM
Sunset: 5:22 PM Moonrise: 12:45 AM (Sat)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,398
Marty Offline OP
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A cold front is the area of Belize.

We are also monitoring tropical waves tracking east to west across the Atlantic basin. Due to high wind shear, many of the tropical waves completely dissipated. No cyclone development is anticipated thru this weekend

[Linked Image]

There are still currently no organized tropical systems in the Atlantic basin; however, strong low pressure off the East coast may become tropical or subtropical this weekend as it tracks to the east then southeast over relatively warmer waters. This is the same low pressure system that brought soaking rainfall and damaging winds to parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic earlier this week.

The tropical season runs through the end of November and still has a month to go, so more tropical activity still remains possible. Wind shear may become more favorable for tropical development in the Caribbean in early November, but all is quiet in the Atlantic for the time being.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
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On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a Northern cooling the island. Today's expected high temperature is set at 80f.

FB_IMG_1635522717193.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,398
Marty Offline OP
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Well, so much for the cold front, which has actually mostly passed us. We are now in the cold front area. You noticed the temperature drop? My thermometers did not. But it also dragged the SW high level cloud down with it, with the result of clashing, causing some rain in a few places, that clashing and rain is now in the sea off Honduras.

Looks as if today will have a fair bit of high level cloud and some normal cloud, but coming down from the north, I am not seeing signs of rain. It just might turn ou to be a bit cooler today.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : (Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler)
Last Night 25°C 78°F Yesterday max. 33°C 92°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0")

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,398
Marty Offline OP
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No rain on the radar.

[Linked Image]

Present Condition: Partly cloudy, mostly cloudy in San Pedro. A cold front supports cool conditions over the area. A small craft caution is in effect for occasionally gusty winds and locally rough seas.

24hr Forecast: Mostly cloudy and cool with little to no rainfall except for a few showers or periods of light rain over offshore and southern coastal areas tonight.

Outlook: Mild conditions with little or no rainfall expected for Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Cold front Ake (No. 6) extends to Guatelama Belize and Honduras.
The impulse cold air mass is gradually entering the Yucatan Peninsula. It will cool even more in the next few days.

[Linked Image]

Flood Report and Forecast for October 29, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, all levels are below normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia, levels are below normal and steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities are below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge and steady. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are below normal and steady. On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are below normal and falling; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels remain below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels are below normal and falling. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village is above normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, levels are normal and steady; and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are near normal and decreasing slowly.

On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are normal and falling. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, levels are below normal and steady. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, levels are normal and steady.

On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, levels are normal and steady; and at Jordan, levels are normal and falling. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, levels are below normal and falling.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are normal and falling.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, below normal levels will persist; and on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and at Caledonia, below normal levels will persist.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the Low-level Bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, below normal levels will persist. On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, below normal levels will persist; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels will remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, below normal levels should continue; and on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, above normal levels will persist. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS; and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, normal levels is expected.

On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, normal levels will continue. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, below normal levels will persist. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, falling levels are expected.

On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, normal levels are expected; and at Jordan, below normal levels are expected. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, falling levels will persist.

REGION 13 - Normal levels will persist on the SARSTOON RIVER.

The next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on November 1, 2021 at 12 pm, or as necessary


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