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Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2021 #553687
10/31/21 06:12 AM
10/31/21 06:12 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,855
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy skies throughout the country this morning including in San Pedro. Cool and mostly dry conditions continue today but a slight increase in moisture is expected tonight.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Variably cloudy and cool today with little or no rainfall. Cloudy at times tonight with a few light showers mainly over the south and along the coast.
Winds: N-NE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Choppy
Waves: 3-5 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: A few showers will linger mainly over southern and coastal areas on Monday decreasing and becoming isolated on Monday night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 26 to November 3: The chances of new sargassum mats drifting ashore is expected to remain low during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3am subtropical storm Wanda was centered near latitude 36.5N, longitude 43.9W or about 935 miles west of the Azores. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There is one tropical wave in the Atlantic, and none in the Caribbean.

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to west of Jamaica to the northeast coast of Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the front. Winds west of the front have diminished to gentle to moderate, however fresh N-NE winds are offshore of the eastern coast of Honduras and offshore of Nicaragua where winds are funneling down along the coast. Remnant NW swell to around 8 ft is still pushing through the Yucatan Channel, with mainly 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere west of the front. Ahead of the front low pressure is in the SW Caribbean near 12.5N78W with associated convection described above. A surface trough extends north-northeast of the low to 18N75W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail east of the front, along with 3 to 5 ft seas, locally 6 ft near NE Caribbean passages in northerly swell, and except 3 ft or less in the SW Caribbean south of 11N.

For the forecast, the stationary front will transition back to a cold front early today and extend from far eastern Cuba to the offshore waters of SE Nicaragua by later today where the front will stall again. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore of Nicaragua will diminish by early Mon. Remnant NW swell behind the front in the NW Caribbean will decay today. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient ahead of the front will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin through the middle of next week.


  High Low
Coastal 28° C
82° F
25° C
77° F
Inland 31° C
88° F
19° C
67° F
Hills 26° C
78° F
18° C
64° F
TIDES:
High: 5:51 AM Low: 1:00 PM
High: 7:05 PM Low: 1:00 AM (Mon)
Sunrise: 5:51 AM Moonset: 2:36 PM
Sunset: 5:21 PM Moonrise: 2:36 AM (Mon)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553688
10/31/21 06:12 AM
10/31/21 06:12 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,855
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
There is no tropical spookiness across the Atlantic basin. NO cyclone formation is expected.

[Linked Image]

A broad area of low pressure located over the tropical eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before it moves into a region of strong upper-level winds early next week. This system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days. By the middle of the upcoming week, wind shear is expected to increase over the system and should cause the system to lose strength.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553690
10/31/21 07:43 AM
10/31/21 07:43 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,619
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
.
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a North wind blowing at 13 mph. Today's expected high temperature is 82 f.

12190119_10153766001504525_2094636501219610846_n.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553691
10/31/21 09:42 AM
10/31/21 09:42 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,855
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Beautiful photo of the sunrise…

The cold front is well and truly over Belize now, There is a little cloud movement up off Honduras, but not causing any rain, there is not much trace of the SW high level cloud either, so we are having cloud free sunshine over all Belize. The circulating air that brought this cold front was over NE USA, but is now moving further away, as a result, the Caribbean winds are starting to move again, presently down from the NNE over the western Caribbean.

Looks as if most of today will be cool air and sunny conditions, some cloud might develop this afternoon.

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 23°C 74°F Yesterday max. 29°C 84°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0") Over Night Rain 0 mm ( 0" )

B8251197-DA43-43FF-8102-4925A3BF043F.png
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553692
10/31/21 12:02 PM
10/31/21 12:02 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,855
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Mostly clear skies throughout the country, including in San Pedro. A few clouds in the south. Mostly dry conditions prevail today, then a slight increase in moisture is expected overnight.

24hr Forecast: Skies will be clear to partly cloudy. Little or no rainfall is expected this afternoon, then a few light showers will occur over southern and some coastal areas tonight and tomorrow morning.

Outlook: For Monday afternoon through to midday on Tuesday is for generally fair weather prevailing, with a few showers occurring mostly over southern and offshore areas.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553695
11/01/21 04:12 AM
11/01/21 04:12 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,855
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Spectacular Sunset view today from Ramon’s Village Dive Boat. Photo by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

Day of the Living Dead! Best costume contest at Driftwood Beach Bar & Pizza Shack in Hopkins. Photos by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Monthly Weather Summary, October 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

October is one of the months were tropical storms and hurricanes peaks, but this month was rather quiet with not much tropical activity. Rainfall can also be attributed to on average 3 Upper-Level Troughs, 5 Tropical waves and 1 Surface Troughs. During the month, four tropical waves crossed the country and several surface troughs over the area near the northwest Caribbean and the Yucatan. Overall, rainfall was below average over most areas, except for parts of central coastal Belize.

The first week saw relatively moist conditions over most areas in both the low and upper levels on most days due to a moist and light east to north-easterly airflow from surface troughs lingering over the area and the approach and passage of a tropical wave on October 7. At the upper levels, ridging was the dominant feature which supported a north-easterly wind component and neutral to weakly convergent pattern for most of the week. On October 6 and 7, the approaching tropical wave led to upper-level conditions becoming weakly divergent with the high-pressure ridge over the western Caribbean supporting a more south-easterly flow. A few showers and affected most areas during the beginning of the week due to lingering moisture from the passage over a tropical wave at the end of the previous month. A temporary break was observed at the middle of the week, but rainfall activity increased on October 6 and 7 due to the tropical wave where some showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms affected most areas along with early morning fog on October 7.

Week 2 continued moist through October 8 and 9 with a slack pressure gradient and a light easterly flow over Belize and the northwest Caribbean. Ridging continues to dominate at the upper level and a north-westerly flow prevailed with a weakly divergent pattern. This supported showers and thunderstorms across the country with most activity occurring during the night, then affecting mostly northern and southern areas during the daytime. Moisture levels began to decrease over the area leading the low and upper levels to become dry. Showery activity decreased over most areas October 10 to 14 supporting only isolated showers or thunderstorms over the Maya mountains and southern Belize. A weak tropical wave crossed the country on October 12 and 15 but not much activity was associated with these waves. In the upper levels, troughing was observed at the levels over Belize because of an upper level low over the Bahamas and a north-westerly upper-level wind component was observed.

The upper-level trough extended to the surface supporting a light east to north-easterly flow over the area and only a few showers over the mountains and southern Belize on October 15 in week 3. Moisture levels were relatively low, but a gradual increase was observed at first in the low levels then extended to the upper levels by October 18. Most of the showery activity continued to affect the mountainous areas and southern Belize while conditions continue neutral at the upper levels over the area. An increase in low and upper-level moisture was observed on October 18 through to October 21 as a cold front approached the area and became stationary over the Bay of Campeche before lifting north of the area. This led to an increase in cloudiness and instability further supported by a weakly divergent upper-level pattern due to a south-westerly upper-level flow from a ridge over the western Caribbean. Thus, showers and thunderstorms developed and continued to affect southern Belize on October 19 before increase and affecting most areas. On October 20, a diurnal pattern was observed in the rainfall activity with showers and thunderstorms affecting southern and some inland areas during the night-time and affected northern, coastal, and offshore areas during the day. This continued into October 21 affecting mostly northern areas and dissipated by with afternoon with radar imagery showing rainfall activity across the country by nightfall.

Moist conditions prevailed going into the last week of the month with light easterly surface flow and a south-westerly component at the upper levels influenced by an upper-level jet north of the area. A few early morning showers and thunderstorms affected mostly northern, central, and offshore areas and decreased in the afternoon on October 22. October 23 and 24 were relatively dry, however, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms were observed primarily over southern and inland areas. Another increase in moisture and instability occurred on October 25 as a cold front moved into the northern Gulf of Mexico. October 26 and 28 saw ridging as the dominant feature over the area and supported a dry and warm south-easterly flow and only a few showers mostly over the mountain and southern areas. The front moved over the north-western Yucatan on October 28 extending from northern Florida. This front was the first front of the season to cross Belize and did so in October 29, however, not much rainfall activity was associated with it as only a few showers were observed from pre-frontal activity over central, southern, and offshore areas overnight on the 28th. The front became stationary on October 30 over north- eastern Nicaragua and supported a cool north-westerly surface flow. The high pressure behind the front supported fair and dry conditions behind the front. The lowest temperature was observed at the Central Farm station with a value of 15.6 oC in the Cayo District on October 31.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, most of the country continue to experience below normal rainfall. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show above normal maximum/daytime temperatures and slightly above normal minimum/night-time temperatures over most areas, except for Savannah in the south and Central Farm in the west, where near normal maximum temperatures and below normal minimum temperatures were observed, respectively.

Monthly Rainfall Summary

[Linked Image]

Monthly Maximum Temperatures

[Linked Image]

Monthly Minimum Temperatures

[Linked Image]

Rainfall Observed: October 2021 (mm)

[Linked Image]

Rainfall Observed: October 2021 (% Above/Below Average)

[Linked Image]


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