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Belize Weather Forecast: November 1, 2021 #553700
11/01/21 06:07 AM
11/01/21 06:07 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,977
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: November 1, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy skies throughout the country this morning. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Conditions have become slightly moist over the area.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today, along with a few showers mostly offshore and near central coastal areas this morning, then likely over central and southern mainland areas this afternoon. Then, clear to partly cloudy tonight with isolated showers.
Winds: N-NE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop first over offshore areas Tuesday morning, reaching near coastal areas and then over some inland areas Tuesday afternoon, and then increasing especially offshore and along the coast on Tuesday night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 26 to November 3: The chances of new sargassum mats drifting ashore is expected to remain low during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am, Subtropical Storm Wanda was centered near latitude 34.5N, longitude 43.9W, or about 970 miles west of the Azores. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There is one tropical wave in the Atlantic, and none in the Caribbean.

A stationary front reaching from Cabo Cruz in eastern Cuba to near 17N82W is dissipating. A surface trough reaches from the end of this front to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N80W, along the the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh N winds are possibly lingering between the trough and the coast of Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are active between the low and central Panama. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are note within 60 nm either side of the trough and front as well. No other significant convection is observed. A surface trough is moving across the Leeward and Windward Islands, related to an upper trough over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with slight to moderate seas are noted across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate this morning. The fresh N winds off Nicaragua will diminish today as the low pressure over the southwest Caribbean weakens. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will continue to support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin through Fri night.


  High Low
Coastal 29° C
84° F
23° C
74° F
Inland 31° C
88° F
19° C
66° F
Hills 23° C
74° F
17° C
62° F
TIDES:
High: 7:01 AM Low: 1:34 PM
High: 7:37 PM Low: 1:50 AM (Tue)
Sunrise: 5:51 AM Moonset: 3:15 PM
Sunset: 5:20 PM Moonrise: 3:33 AM (Tue)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 1, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553701
11/01/21 06:08 AM
11/01/21 06:08 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,977
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
We are monitoring two tropical areas spreading squally weather across parts of the Atlantic basin. One tropical wave is located by the Cape Verde Islands & the othe tropical wave is located in the Central America region. Subtropical Storm Wanda is in the central Atlantic waters, located more than 900 miles west of the Azores, and is mainly a marine threat. The rest of the Atlantic basin will be calm and quiet.

[Linked Image]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower activity. This system is moving northwestward into a region of less conducive upper-level winds, and the chances of tropical cyclone development are decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Linked Image]

Crown Weather:

There’s the possibility for some sort of tropical development in the far southwestern Caribbean as a piece of energy will be left behind by a departing frontal boundary. This piece of energy will combine with a low pressure system now located in the Caribbean near 80 West Longitude and could lead to some sort of tropical mischief in the far southwestern Caribbean by the middle to later parts of this coming week. At this point, the model guidance that do show development there (GFS and Canadian models) seem to suggest that this will be a very short-lived system and it’ll move westward into Central America by next weekend.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 1, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553702
11/01/21 09:26 AM
11/01/21 09:26 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,977
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
The cool air bubble is now moving away up towards Iceland, allowing the Caribbean easterly air to come back in. As a result, its wetter air meeting with residual cool air, is resulting in cloud over central and southern Belize and a number of rain showers, a few in coastal areas,more out at sea. There is a much more substantial cloud area further out in the Caribbean, that may bring rain in over the next few days.

Looks as if today will remain fairly cool but also cloudy for most, and the small chance of the odd rain shower, the north having sunshine.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : (Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler)
Last Night 24°C 74°F Yesterday max. 30°C 85°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0.5 mm (0.02")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 1, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553703
11/01/21 10:55 AM
11/01/21 10:55 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,629
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
.
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning the breeze is from the North but shifting to the Northeast. This could be the end of our cool weather of late. Today's expected high temperature is set at 84 f.

nov 1.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 1, 2021 [Re: Marty] #553704
11/01/21 12:01 PM
11/01/21 12:01 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 82,977
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Beautiful morning with a cool north breeze. And it looks like this wind may be sticking with us for a while. Photo by San Pedro Scoop

[Linked Image]

Still some cool air trying to come down from the north, but being overtaken by the easterly Caribbean winds and clouds.

[Linked Image]

Present Condition: Mostly cloudy, less so in the north. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Slightly moist conditions prevail over the area.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers or periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms mostly inland and south this afternoon then mainly over the Toledo district tonight, decreasing tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Showers will be generally isolated Tuesday afternoon then a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over coastal areas and offshore Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Flood Report and Forecast for November 1, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, and on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia, all levels are below normal and steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities are below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge and steady.

On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are below normal and steady.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are below normal and steady; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels remain below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels are below normal and steady. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village is above normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, levels are below normal and steady; and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are near normal and steady.

On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are below normal and steady. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, levels are below normal and steady. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, levels are below normal and steady.

On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, levels are normal and steady; and at Jordan, levels are below normal and steady. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, levels are below normal and steady.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are normal and falling.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, below normal and steady levels will persist; and on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and at Caledonia, below normal levels will persist.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the Low-level Bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, below normal levels will persist. On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, below normal and steady levels will persist; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels will remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, below normal levels is expected to continue; and on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, above normal levels will persist. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS; and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, normal levels is expected to continue.

On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, below normal levels is expected to continue. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, below normal levels will persist. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, below normal levels are expected to continue.

On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, normal levels are expected; and at Jordan, below normal levels are expected to continue. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, below normal levels will persist.

REGION 13 - Normal levels will persist on the SARSTOON RIVER.

The next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on November 3, 2021 at 12 pm, or as necessary


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