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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: February 28, 2022

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy on the mainland except in the very north. Partly cloudy in San Pedro. Atmosphere becoming relatively moist.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy spells today and tonight with a few showers mainly along the coast and over southern areas of the country.
Winds: N-NE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Light chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 81
Outlook: For Tuesday and Tuesday night is for similar weather conditions.
Sargassum Forecast from February 22 to March 2: No significant influx of Sargassum is expected during the next few days. San Pedro has a minimal probability with a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season has ended, warnings will resume on May 15, 2022. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

Phoenix Resort in San Pedro | Click here for view at the airport/sunset

The Caribbean Sea

The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds across the reminder of the E and central parts of the basin. Mainly light and variable winds are over the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft near the coast of Colombia, and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are observed across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some of these patches of moisture are currently affecting parts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as well as Jamaica and the Gulf of Honduras. Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, associated with strong upper-level westerly winds continue to affect the Windward Islands.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Fri. Moderate to fresh trades are also expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles, with seas of 6-9 ft in NE to E swell. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. A weakening cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel and the far NW Caribbean tonight into Tue.

  High Low
Coastal 29° C
84° F
22° C
72° F
Inland 31° C
88° F
18° C
64° F
Hills 23° C
74° F
16° C
60° F
High: 9:29 AM Low: 2:00 PM
High: 8:35 PM Low: 3:28 AM (Tue)
Sunrise: 6:11 AM Moonset: 4:12 PM
Sunset: 5:58 PM Moonrise: 5:34 AM (Tue)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,398
Marty Offline OP
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A cold front moves over the center of the Gulf of Mexico and arrives on Monday, February 28 to the Yucatan Peninsula during the afternoon with activity of showers, scattered rains and a slight drop in temperatures. This moderate north front will also reach the western part of Cuba in the afternoon, and at night will spread over part of Belize and northern Guatemala where the probability of rain will increase mostly in Belize, northern part of Guatemala, and the northern coast of Honduras. This is a weak cold front that will give nothing but a crop in temperatures for Tuesday. T will possibly be the last of the current winter season to hit the peninsula. Image from late Sunday night.

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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The cool air from the north is taking over, and causing a lot of cloud with the easterly Caribbean winds.

Looks as if much of today will be cloudy, some sunshine, mainly in the north, yet probably little or no rain.

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 22 °C 72 °F Yesterday max. 30 °C 87 °F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0 ") Over Night Rain 0 mm ( 0 " )

B1330861-7D67-4AC5-8847-C50346F20F3D.png 93F0A065-568E-4AE0-B5CE-1B1F32BD45D8.png
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,398
Marty Offline OP
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The north wind is causing rain down south, mainly out at sea.

[Linked Image]

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a North wind at 12 mph and cooler air. The sea around our barrier reef is moderate.


White Sands Dive Shop
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Posts: 84,398
Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Mostly cloudy on the mainland south of Belize City. Also mostly cloudy right now in San Pedro, will probably clear pretty soon on the island. A light and relatively moist northerly airflow prevailing.

24hr Forecast: Sunny skies today with a few cloudy spells. Tonight skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy. Showers will be isolated this afternoon, except for southern areas where a bit more showers can be expected. Tonight and tomorrow morning a few more showers will develop mainly along coastal areas.

Outlook: For Tuesday afternoon thru to Wednesday afternoon is for similar weather conditions to prevail.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Cold front Xicum (number. 31) will arrive in the next few hours at the Yucatan Peninsula. Currently located very close to coastal areas. Gradually the air will cool off with some scattered clouds.

[Linked Image]

Good morning! It's Monday near Hopkins Village! Photo by Belize Scoop

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,398
Marty Offline OP
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Cold Front Xicum (num. 31) has already arrived north of the peninsula weakened and is pretty stationary. Its cold air will slowly begin to cover the region, cooling the atmosphere at nights and at dawn.

[Linked Image]

The cloud cover has got thicker and there are more and larger areas of rain.

0E78DD4E-63D6-43C5-B3B6-090F0452544F.png 4052C00C-B1BF-4BE6-A021-80D98845CBBB.png
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,398
Marty Offline OP
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Monday afternoon view from Corozal Town. Photos by Belize Scoop

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Monthly Weather Summary, February 2022

National Meteorological Service of Belize

February is typically the second most active month for frontal systems during the dry season which is one of the sources of rainfall. On average, a total of eight cold fronts, one stationary fronts, two upper-level troughs and one surface trough would influence weather conditions and rainfall in February, a total of two cold fronts, two stationary front, one surface trough and ten high pressure systems affected the country. Overall, rainfall was above normal over most areas, except for south-eastern Belize which received near normal due to rainfall activity from the passage of the fronts and fronts that dissipated and stalled over the area.

The first week started off relatively dry over the country through to February 4. This was due to a very dry airmass over the area with riding in both the lower and upper levels. This resulted in subsidence inhibiting any significant rainfall development as a neutral to convergent upper-level pattern prevailed. Upper-level winds were mostly zonal while near the surface, a moderate east to south-easterly flow prevailed. Skies were clear to partly cloudy during this period with little to no rainfall, except for isolated showers around the country and isolated thunderstorms over the Maya Mountains in the afternoon and evening on February 4 as a cold front approached the country and the low-level winds became north-easterly with moisture advection unto the mainland from over the northwest Caribbean. On February 5, a cold front extended from the western North Atlantic to the Yucatan Peninsula resulting in an increase in low level moisture while the upper levels continued very dry. A neutral to weakly divergent upper-level flow prevailed and supported an increase in showery activity and isolated thunderstorms around the country but mostly over central and offshore areas. The north-easterly flow behind the front supported rain over northern areas overnight on the 6 and offshore areas during the day with fair weather to end the week the 7th.

The front became stationary over the western Yucatan and moist conditions prevailed in the low levels for the remainder of the week. This was accompanied by a light to moderate north to north-easterly surface flow through to the 11th in neutral to weakly divergent conditions from a digging upper-level trough with a west to south-westerly flow. Showers were isolated on February 8th then a few showers affected central and offshore areas on February 9th. Between February 10th and 11th, no significant activity occurred on the mainland with only light rain concentrated over offshore areas. Another cold front was approaching the area on February 12th and was located over the North-western Gulf of Mexico with a deep polar trough to the west of the country supporting a few showers over northern and central locations during the morning hours. The cold front crossed the country on February 13th and extended to central Belize with showers being isolated at first, increasing and affecting the north in the afternoon, then some showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms affected central and southern locations. The front became stationary near Nicaragua on the 14th and supported a windy, cool north-westerly flow as a strong ridge build over the area behind the front. Moisture levels continued very high over the area, but rainfall activity was mostly over offshore areas,

Cool temperatures prevailed into week three from the passage of the cold front with relatively moist conditions continuing in the low levels up to February 17th. Showers and light rain persisted mainly along coastal areas on the 15th, then over northern and inland locations as conditions continued neutral to weakly divergent over the country due to troughing supporting a south-westerly upper-level flow. A tight pressure gradient supported a moderate east to south-easterly flow. Conditions became drier over the area on February 18th to 21st with a high-pressure ridge supporting a moderate east to north-easterly flow and neutral to weakly convergent upper-level pattern with a broad upper-level ridge over the southwest Caribbean. This yielded a west to south-westerly flow aloft through to the end of the week. During the period, showers were isolated, except for a few more over some northern and southern locations periodically.

During the last week of the month, the main feature affecting the weather both at the lower and upper level was a ridge pattern. This supported dry conditions across the country with mostly an east to south-easterly flow in the low levels, and a south to south-westerly flow at the upper levels with a neutral to weakly divergent pattern. Showery activities were predominantly isolated, with slightly more occurring over some central and southern locations.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, most of the country experienced above normal rainfall. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show near normal maximum/daytime except for Melinda in the south that was slightly above normal and slight above normal minimum/night-time temperatures.

Monthly Rainfall Summary

[Linked Image]

Monthly Maximum Temperatures

[Linked Image]

Monthly Minimum Temperatures

[Linked Image]

Rainfall Observed: February 2022 (mm)

[Linked Image]

Rainfall Observed: February 2022 (% Above/Below Average)

[Linked Image]

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