Belize Weather Forecast: May 13, 2022 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear this morning with a few scattered clouds on mainland, clear skies in San Pedro. Seasonally warm and mostly dry weather prevails. Advisories: None. 24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny today with only isolated showers, along with the chance for isolated thunderstorms developing inland and over the mountains this afternoon. Clear to partly cloudy tonight with little or no rain. Winds: E-NE, 0-10 kts Sea State: Slight Waves: 1-3 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85 Outlook: For Saturday and Saturday night is for mainly fair and warm weather conditions. Sargassum Forecast from May 10 to May 18: More sargassum is expected to drift onto beaches across the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability with a moderate impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season has ended, warnings will resume on May 15, 2022. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea Central Atlantic high pressure stretches southwestward to just N of the northeastern Caribbean. The pressure difference between the high pressure and lower pressure over the Caribbean is allowing for fresh to strong trades to exist south of 16N and east of 74W. Seas there are in the 6-8 ft range. Water vapor imagery depicts a well pronounced mid and upper-level trough that extends from low pressure off the southeastern U.S. southwestward to western Caribbean and farther southwest to Honduras. A vigorous SW jet stream east of this trough is helping to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean from 13N to 20N and between 72W-80W. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere east of 81W and north of 13N. Moderate to fresh trades are over the remainder of the sea. A recent altimeter data pass revealed wave heights of 2-4 ft between 74W-80W. Similar wave heights are west of 80W, including the Gulf of Honduras area. Slighter higher wave heights of 3-5 ft are north of 18N between 76W-80W, and in the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are quickly increasing along and just offshore the coast of Panama and over extreme northwest part of Colombia. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will build westward through the weekend increasing the trades across mainly the eastern and central Caribbean through Sat. Thereafter, mainly fresh trades are expected in the Colombia basin and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue night. A tropical wave may bring scattered showers to portions of the eastern Caribbean starting late Tue.   High Low Coastal 31° C 87° F 26° C 78° F Inland 36° C 96° F 20° C 68° F Hills 28° C 82° F 17° C 63° F TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE: High: 7:42 AM Low: 2:24 PM High: 8:39 PM Low: 2:08 AM (Sat) Sunrise: 5:21 AM Moonrise: 4:02 PM Sunset: 6:16 PM Moonset: 4:04 AM (Sat) Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://sanpedrowx.com/ https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village Although the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season (June to November) is less than a month away, the first tropical wave has been detected off the west coast of Africa. Weather experts say it’s not surprising to see systems forming outside of the season, and they usually do not pose a significant threat. This year’s hurricane period is predicted to be an above-average season with 19 named storms, with nine expected to become hurricanes and four of them becoming major hurricanes. An average hurricane season usually comprises of 14 named storms. According to the National Meteorological Service of Belize staff, the early tropical waves are called low-latitude waves and usually do not affect areas above 15 degrees north of the Earth’s equatorial plane. A tropical wave is not a tropical storm and is just a disturbance that could result in a strong thunderstorm. Currently, there are no threats regarding the said tropical wave. We do NOT anticipate any tropical formation in the Atlantic basin thru Sunday, May 15, 2022. People/friends in the western Caribbean should monitor for possible tropical development late week next week, May 15-22, 2022. Some reliable models, NOT real-time weather conditions, are consistently anticipating the potential of tropical development late next week. Although early in the HURRICANE season, Western Caribbean Sea temperatures are warmer than normal, and real-time data must be monitored for light wind shear creating an environment favorable for possible, tropical formation next week.

Very confused weather, it does not know what it is or wants to do. Probably the best way to describe it is something came down from the north, stagnated and blocked the Caribbean wind yesterday and still happening today, resulting in little or no air movement, but patches moving slowly in different directions. This resulted in a fair bit of rain yesterday evening over Guatamala, but not Belize.

Not clear what will happen today, general cloud developing due to sun on the land, but not knowing which way to move. As the lad worms up, there will be a little movement from the east, but could result in some thunder late this afternoon. No rain on the Radar.

Last Night 25 °C 77 °F Yesterday max. 32 °C 920 °F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0 " ) Over Night Rain 0 mm ( 0 " )

Present Condition: Clear skies throughout the country including in San Pedro. Warm and mostly dry conditions prevail over the area.

24hr Forecast: Sunny during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight with only isolated showers, and the chance of isolated thunderstorms developing inland and over the mountains this afternoon.

Outlook: For Saturday afternoon to Sunday midday is for continuing fair and warm weather conditions.

Western Caribbean Tropical Development Quite Possible In The Western Caribbean Later Next Week Through Next Weekend: The weather pattern continues to look like it’ll be favorable for tropical development in the western Caribbean starting later next week and continuing through next weekend. One contributing factor to these favorable conditions is the fact that there will be an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation pushing into the Caribbean and the western Atlantic next week. This will cause the background state to be favorable for development.

Taking A Look At The Model Guidance – For the most part, most of the model guidance and their ensemble counterparts all agree on a tropical system forming near Central America later next week. The GFS model, in particular, has been extremely aggressive in forecasting a full-blown hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico during the week of May 23. Take these model guidance runs with a ton of salt as I think the GFS model may be way overdoing the intensity of this tropical system. This means ignore any social media posts that show a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Stick with me and I’ll guide you in the right direction.

With that said, the GFS model may be onto something in that there may very well be a tropical system in the western Caribbean by next weekend. It just probably wont be a hurricane.

As for the other model guidance, the Canadian and European really don’t show outright development, but the European model does seem to hint at development over the far eastern Pacific near Guatemala and El Salvador next weekend.

As for the ensemble model guidance, there are a large number of GFS ensemble model members that show western Caribbean development as soon as Thursday into Friday of next week. Beyond this, most of these ensemble members suggest any tropical system would head into either the eastern Gulf of Mexico or across the Florida Peninsula from south to north late next weekend into the early part of the week of May 23. Finally, the GFS ensemble model guidance is forecasting about a 30-40 percent chance for tropical development in the western Caribbean late next week into next weekend.

As for the European ensemble model guidance, it forecasts about a 30 percent chance for tropical development near Central America meaning development could occur in either the far eastern Pacific or the western Caribbean late next week and next weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: I’ll go over the factors that may support or preclude development.

First for the favorable signals – It looks likely that there will be an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation positioned over the Caribbean and the western North Atlantic beginning next week and possibly continuing into the week of May 23. So, while the GFS model is probably over zealous in its forecast of a hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico, the idea of tropical development posed by the GFS model cannot be ruled out.

Another signal that seems to support the idea of tropical development is that it appears quite possible that a big ridge of high pressure may build over the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada by next weekend. A pattern like this many times leads to lowering barometric pressures and stormy weather to the south of this high pressure system. This would place the area of lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean.

As for factors that may preclude development – The big one is whether the actual environmental conditions and in particular wind shear values will be favorable for development. Currently, the wind shear values are way too strong to support development from the Caribbean through the Gulf of Mexico. If we are in the same boat with these strong wind shear values next weekend, then development would be unlikely. It should be noted though that both the GFS model and the European model are pointing to a complete reversal in environmental conditions and are forecasting wind shear values that would support development. This is something to certainly keep an eye on.

Based on everything that I have looked at, I think that there is about a 20 percent chance for tropical development in the Western Caribbean between next Friday (May 20) and the following Monday (May 23).

If we do see a tropical system form in the western Caribbean, the most probable track would be towards the north and northeast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the week of May 23. This potentially means areas from the Alabama coast eastward through the Florida Panhandle and Florida Peninsula would need to closely watch this system.

Additionally, those of you on the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the Bahamas should also keep close tabs on the possibility of tropical development beginning late next week and continuing through next weekend.



Crown Weather Services

Welcome to Hopkins Village! A fun vacation photoshoot with the Justice Family. Photo by Hopkins Uncut