Belize Weather Forecast: May 14, 2022

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear this morning with a few scattered clouds on mainland, mainly in the west. Clear skies in San Pedro. Light east-southeasterly airflow prevails.
Advisories: Heat Alert: Residents, especially those living inland, are advised to stay hydrated and avoid outdoor activities during the daytime as much as possible.
24-hour forecast: Mostly sunny today and clear to partly cloudy tonight. Little or no rain is expected, except for the chance of an isolated thundestorm developing over the southwestern border area this afternoon.
Winds: E-SE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: (Sun & Sun night) Similar weather conditions.
Sargassum Forecast from May 10 to May 18: More sargassum is expected to drift onto beaches across the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability with a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: The weather pattern continues to look like it’ll be favorable for tropical development in the western Caribbean starting later next week and continuing through next weekend. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

A rather broad deep layer trough is over the western Caribbean west of 80W. At the surface, a trough is along 81W north of 13N to across central Cuba and to the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection east of the surface trough to 74W and from 13N to 16N. Overnight ASCAT data over this area indicated strong to near gale-force winds with this convection. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over rest of central Caribbean north of 13N between 70W-74W. The ASCAT data indicated moderate to fresh trades elsewhere east of 79W, and gentle trades west of 79W.

Wave heights are in the 7-9 ft range are in the south-central Caribbean, especially within the area of the numerous moderate to strong convection. Wave heights elsewhere are 6-8 ft north of 15N between 72W-80W, 5-7 ft elsewhere east of 72W, 3-6 ft west of 80W except for lower wave heights of 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, N of 18N west of 85W and also south of 11N west 80W.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure building westward north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun night. Thereafter, mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed. A tropical wave, currently located east of the forecast waters near 50W is forecast to approach the Windward Islands early on Mon, and move across the eastern Caribbean from Mon and through Tue. Moisture accompanying with this wave is expected to increase the chances for showers in the eastern Caribbean through at least Tue night.

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

A lot of uncertainty is being generated in the face of the possible cyclonic development in the Caribbean in the coming days. A single model is generating the possibility of cyclonic development, however there is no consensus in other models so the margin of error is large. There is a low percentage of probability formation (seen in the Red Circle) from here to May 17. The hurricane season in the Northeast Pacific begins Sunday the 15th of May and in the Atlantic on June 1.