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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: May 18, 2022

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Thin clouds cover much of the mainland this morning, they should burn off early. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Light and dry east-southeast airflow prevailing along with seasonably warm weather.
Advisories: Heat Alert: Residents, especially those living inland, are advised to stay hydrated and avoid outdoor activities during the daytime as much as possible.
24-hour forecast: Sunny and hot today, especially inland; and partly cloudy tonight. Little or no rain is expected.
Winds: E-SE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: (Thur & Thur night) Mainly fair and warm with the chance of only isolated showers.
Sargassum Forecast from May 17 to May 20: Coastal areas across the country will continue to be affected by Sargassum during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability with a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: The weather pattern continues to look like it'll be favorable for tropical development in the western Caribbean starting later this week and continuing through the weekend. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Expect locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central America, especially in mountainous terrain.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong trade winds pulsing off the coast of northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia. Elsewhere, the gradient between high pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure over South America is maintaining moderate to fresh easterlies in the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are west of a surface trough along 82W/83W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the basin, except 2 to 4 in the northwest Caribbean. Other than the previously discussed shower and thunderstorm activity near the tropical wave, no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted.

For the forecast, the surface ridging over the western Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the east and central Caribbean through mid week, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia. Winds and seas across the basin may increase through late week as the ridge strengthens and broad low pressure forms along Central America. Strongest winds expected to be over the northwest and south- central Caribbean Thu night through the remainder weekend.

  High Low
Coastal 32° C
89° F
27° C
81° F
Inland 37° C
99° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 29° C
84° F
19° C
66° F
Low: 4:31 AM High: 11:03 AM
Low: 6:29 PM High: 12:58 AM (Thu)
Sunrise: 5:19 AM Moonset: 7:34 AM
Sunset: 6:18 PM Moonrise: 9:26 PM

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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[Linked Image]

Everything indicates that a low pressure system will likely develop in Central American Caribbean waters, from where the American model GFS could emerge what would be the first Tropical Storm of the Cyclonic Season, Atlantic 2022 (see image above tor what it could look like). The European model, on the other hand, sees adverse factors to cyclonic development.

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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From Elbert: On Ambergris Caye this morning the wind is from the East at 9 mph creating a calm sea around our barrier reef.

[Linked Image]

Again, there was some rain near our western border last night, but no rain around now. The easterly Caribbean winds are just slowly starting up again. There is high level from the SW and more high level from the south, from active ITCZ swellups off El Salvador. The met office appear to expect rain from all this activity on Saturday and Sunday, but not today.

Looks as if today will be similar to the last few days, but a bit more easterly winds, probably no rain. No rain on the radar.

[Linked Image]

Last Night 24 °C 75 °F Yesterday max. 34 °C 93 °F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0 " ) Over Night Rain 0 mm ( 0 " )

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Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Mostly clear throughout the country, a few clouds in the south. Clear skies in San Pedro. Fair, warm and mostly dry weather prevails. Heat Alert: Residents, especially those living inland, are advised to stay hydrated and avoid outdoor activities during the daytime as much as possible.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny this afternoon and tomorrow morning and partly cloudy tonight. Little or no rainfall is expected.

Outlook: Between Thursday afternoon and Friday midday is or mainly fair weather to continue with only isolated showers.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Meteorological analysis shows a tropical wave interacting with an induced trough in the Caribbean. How far north will it move? Everything will depend on the Atlantic ridge.

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Basketball at Sundown. Photos by Marlena Gomez

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