General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS:
Present Condition: Cloudy skies with rain throughout the country this morning, with some major weather offshore. Very cloudy with rain in San Pedro. Moist and unstable conditions continues to linger over the country.
Advisories: A flood watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas across the country.
24-hour forecast:
Cloudy skies today with a few sunny breaks. Tonight skies will be cloudy. Showers will be isolated this morning, then expect a few showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly over northern and inland areas this afternoon. Tonight a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop mainly along coastal and northern areas.
Winds: Light + Variable
Sea State:
Moderate
Waves: 4-6 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook:
For Thursday thru to Thursday night is for cloudy spells with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms developing mainly along the coastal areas.
Sargassum Forecast from May 31 to June 8:
There is a medium chance that a few more sargassum mats could affect beaches across the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability with a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
There is a large area of disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula. This system has a medium to high chance of becoming a tropical depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan Peninsula, northwestern Caribbean Sea, and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely. A flood watch remains in effect for the possibility of localized flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas across the country.
Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...
Marine Conditions:
Phoenix Resort in San Pedro
The Caribbean Sea
There is
a large area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula that
has potential for tropical cyclone formation.
The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north of the
area and lower pressure in Colombia is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds in much of the Caribbean Sea, except for an
area of fresh to strong trade winds that is south of 13N between
70W-73W to along and near the coast of Colombia and Venezuela.
Fresh to strong southeast winds are over the northwestern
Caribbean as mentioned earlier under Special Features. The wave
heights range from 5-7 ft in the central and northwestern
Caribbean Sea to 4-6 ft elsewhere except for 3-5 ft north
of 15N between 64W-80W and slighter lower heights of 2-4 ft
near the entrance to the Windward Passage.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is increasing
over the southwestern Caribbean.
As for the forecast, the large area of low pressure located near
the Yucatan Peninsula and that is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over a broad region is likely to become a
tropical depression by the weekend as it moves into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and
crosses the Florida peninsula. Heavy rain and increased winds and
seas are possible late this week in association with this system.
Otherwise, generally moderate to fresh trades will continue
through the period.
Today, June 1st, marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. NHC is watching two areas for potential tropical cyclone development.
The first is a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula, associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. It has a high (70 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (80 percent) chance during the next five days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize during the next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
The second is a weak surface trough located around 200 miles northeast of the central Bahamas, producing disorganized shower activity as it interacts with an upper-level trough. Surface pressures are currently high across the area, and significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward during the next several days away from the southeastern United States. It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and five days.
For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
The prevailing wind has been from the west, for the last day or so. This brought a lot of rain in over Belize from the west last night, and that is now way out in the Caribbean now. But we are still well and truly in the ITCZ activity area, so there could be more rain at any time, but presently mainly dry.
Today will be a mixture, sunshine in some places at some times, mainly cloud, some heavy and there could be more rain later.
Last Night 23 °C 73 °F Yesterday max. 32 °C 90 °F Yesterday Rain 24.8 mm ( 1.0 " ) Over Night Rain 2.0 mm ( 0.1 " )
The mid-level cloud is all coming from the west, the easterly Caribbean winds in the Gulf, are pushing up against something over north Mexico and resulting in no Caribbean wind over Belize. So we are still in this ITCZ activity but presently less active near us, its main activity now in the north Caribbean, nearer to Cuba.
We are still having small rain showers around.
Present Condition: Partly cloudy skies, including in San Pedro. Moist and relatively unstable conditions lingering over the area.
24hr Forecast: Mosty sunny with cloudy spells during the daytime and cloudy at times tonight. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms will develop mainly over northern and inland areas this afternoon and evening, then mainly over the north and coast tonight and tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, showery activity will be isolated.
Outlook: For Thursday afternoon to midday on Friday is for generally fair weather with isolated showers, except for a few more over inland and northern areas Thursday afternoon.
The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.
General Situation:
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