General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS:
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning, including in San Pedro. Light east-southeast airflow prevails.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast:
Sunny with cloudy spells today and cloudy at times tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated today, with the chance for a few more over northern and inland areas. Tonight, a few showers and thunderstorms will develop over southern and central portions of the country.
Winds: E-SE, 5-15 kts
Sea State:
Light Chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook:
(Wed & Wed night) Cloudy spells with a few showers or thunderstorms mainly inland on Wednesday, then mostly over the south Wednesday night.
Sargassum Forecast from May 31 to June 8:
There is a medium chance that a few more sargassum mats could affect beaches across the country during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability with a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.
Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...
Marine Conditions:
Phoenix Resort in San Pedro
The Caribbean Sea
Convergent low-level winds are producing active convection
described above in the SW Caribbean Sea, occurring behind a
tropical wave. The subtropical ridge, centered SW of the Azores,
extends to the central Bahamas and is producing a moderate pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures over northern
South America. Recent scatterometer satellite data captured fresh
to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the
strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia and NW Venezuela.
Seas in the region are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
in the rest of the central Caribbean and eastern portion of the
basin, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE
winds are observed in the NW Caribbean, where scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is occurring across western Cuba and
the adjacent Caribbean coastal waters. Light to gentle winds
prevail in the SW Caribbean, to the south of the monsoon trough
along 11.5N. Seas in the waters discussed are 3-5 ft.
For the forecast, the Atlc ridge extends from the eastern Atlc west-
southwest to the central Bahamas, and will maintain a modest
pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of
the Caribbean basin throughout the week and into the upcoming
weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly
at night through Sat.
Tropical Development Possible Next Week In The Bay Of Campeche Or The Western Caribbean
The background state for tropical development is expected to remain favorable for tropical development across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and western Atlantic through mid-month before a downward pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation pushes into our part of the World at the very end of this month and into early July. Beyond this, the next possible upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will probably enter the Atlantic Basin around mid-July.
This all means that I think that there could be another chance for tropical development next week in either the Bay of Campeche or the Western Caribbean.
The catalyst for this possible development looks to be a tropical wave that's now pushing across the southern Windward Islands. It's possible that this tropical wave will reach the southwestern Caribbean late this week before it lifts northwestward towards the northwestern Caribbean by the weekend and early next week.
The ensemble model guidance, including the European EPS model, the Canadian ensemble model and the GFS ensemble model, all show possible development first in the northwestern Caribbean next Monday. Beyond this, the European EPS model keeps this system suppressed and forecasts it to be guided westward into the Bay of Campeche by a big high pressure ridge in the central United States. The GFS ensemble model guidance, on the other hand, suggests a track into the Gulf of Mexico later next week. The Canadian ensemble model guidance seems to side with the European EPS model and keeps any system suppressed towards the Bay of Campeche.
For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
The easterly Caribbean winds are just beginning to start up again. There is a circulating or two mid to high level thin clouds around which have contributed to a few small showers in east and north areas.
Looks as if today will be largely sunny with high level clouds, a small chance of rain showers, perhaps more in the afternoon.
Last Night 26 °C 79 °F Yesterday max. 34 °C 93 °F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0 " ) Over Night Rain 0 mm ( 0 " )
On Ambergris Caye a breeze from the East blowing at 13 mph, is calming the sea around our barrier reef. We have sunshine. Today's expected high temperature is 88 f.
Present Condition: Partly cloudy, including in San Pedro. Relatively mmoist conditions prevail.
24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow morning. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over northern and inland areas this afternoon; these activities will be isolated elsewhere. During tonight, some showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly over southern and central areas of the country, decreasing tomorrow morning.
Outlook: Between Wednesday afternoon to Thursday midday is for a few showers and isolsted thunderstorms to develop around the country.
Weather analysis shows tropical wave south of the Peninsula and over Central America. It will maintain the potential for rainfall in the region. Another tropical wave is approaching from the Central Caribbean.
The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.
AmbergrisCaye.com 
General Situation:
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