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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: June 13, 2022


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy throughout the country this morning, including in San Pedro. The passage of a tropical wave will support moist and unstable weather today.
Advisories: Operators of small crafts are advised to exercise caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.
24-hour forecast: Mostly cloudy skies today and tonight. Some outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms will affect most areas of the country today, then gradual decrease in activity is expected tonight and tomorrow morning.
Winds: E, 10-20 kts
Sea State: Moderate - Rough
Waves: 4-7 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: For Tuesday and Tuesday night is for cloudy intervals with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly south.
Sargassum Forecast from June 7 to June 15: There continues to be a medium chance of more sargassum mats drifting onto beaches across the country in the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability with a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:


Phoenix Resort in San Pedro

The Caribbean Sea

There are tropical waves affecting the basin.

A strong gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds through the majority of the basin with 6-8 ft seas. The strongest winds are in the south-central Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft. Conditions are more favorable in the lee of Cuba and the far SW portion of the basin, where winds are gentle to moderate and seas are slight.

For the forecast, the surface ridge north of the area will persist through the middle of next week, north of an active monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas between these features through at least mid-week. The strongest winds are expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the western Caribbean by Thu.


  High Low
Coastal 29° C
84° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 31° C
88° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE:
High: 8:22 AM Low:3:45 PM
High: 10:21 PM Low: 2:42 AM (Tue)
Sunrise: 5:17 AM Moonrise: 5:55 PM
Sunset: 6:27 PM Moonset: 5:14 AM (Tue)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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[Linked Image]

On this Monday, showers and thunderstorms are increasing and gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two while the system moves slowly northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. It has a high (80 percent) chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high (90 percent) chance of formation in the next 5 days.

[Linked Image]

An area of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred miles southwest of the coast of Nicaragua in a day or two. Gradual development of this system is possible through the late week while the low moves slowly northwestward near the coast of Central America and southern Mexico. It has a near zero chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance of formation in the next 5 days.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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over Belize and ligh enough to be clashing with the high level from the west, so a lot of rain coming in now.

Today looks as if it will be cloudy most of the day, many areas heavy cloud and rain,

Last Night 25 °C 76 °F Yesterday max. 32 °C 90 °F Yesterday Rain 2.8 mm ( 0.1 " ) Over Night Rain 4.2 mm ( 0.2 " )

8F933D18-29BF-4CCC-A365-084C2AB2ED47.png 86228968-A433-4B24-AFF9-3E325647074C.png
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Cloudy skies throughout the country as a tropical front moves in. Cloudy and windy in San Pedro. Moist and unstable weather conditions continue with the passage of a tropical wave. Easterly winds will become more gusty tonight and tomorrow. Small craft caution remains in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.

24hr Forecast: Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy. A few showers, periods of rain, and thunderstorms will continue around the country, with more activity concentrated over the south.

Outlook: For Tuesday afternoon through to midday on Wednesday is for isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms, with the chance of a few more occurring over southern Belize.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

The chances for cyclonic development in the Caribbean have increased to 30%. An area of low pressure is expected to develop by the middle part of this week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts generally northwestward off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. It has a near zero chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a low (30 percent) chance of formation in the next 5 days.

A second system located southwest of the Caribbean Sea has the chance of slow development as it moves towards the northwest.

Crown Weather:

I think that slow to very slow development may be the most likely outcome later this week over the western Caribbean near the oasts of Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua. The reason for this is due to the fact that the environmental conditions may be just barely favorable enough to support development.

Based on the latest data, I think that there's about a 50 percent chance for tropical development around Thursday and Friday in either the Gulf of Honduras or near the coast of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

[Linked Image]

Tropical wave arriving on the Peninsula. It will favor showers and thunderstorms in your path. Another slightly more weakened wave arriving in Central America. Another one on the Central Caribbean.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Flood Report and Forecast for June 13, 2022

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North and San Roman, levels are below normal and falling, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, and Douglas to the coast, levels are normal and steady.

On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia, levels are near normal falling.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER. reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remain below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the En-level bridge. The MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town is norrnal and steady. On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are near normal and increasing minimally; the CROOKED TREE LAGOON remains below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels are near normal and steady. The SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, levels are near norrnal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Brklge is normal and steady.

On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, above normal levels exist. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, levels are near normal and falling. The DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is above normal and Slang.

On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, levels are above normal and falling. The TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco Is above norrnal and steady.

REGION 13 - The SARSTOON RIVER is near norrnal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio. San Roman, and Douglas to the coast, normal levels expected. On the NEW RIVER, at Tower Hill and Caledonia, above normal levels expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio. levels are expected to remain below the low-level bridge. The MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, is expected to increase to above normal levels.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels expected to increase to above normal levels; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, levels are expected increase minimally. but remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels; and on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, above normal levels expected.

In watersheds on Be EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are expected to increase to near bankfull stage. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, and on the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, an increase in river levels to near bankfull stage is expected. Levels on the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, and on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is above normal levels expected.

REGION 13- On the SARSTOON RIVER, above normal levels expected.

Coconut Row & Buttonwood, Hopkins


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Flood Advisory for June 13, 2022

The National Hydrological Service hereby updates the public on river conditions in the south of the country as follows AND hereby issues a FLOOD ALERT for the Moho River Watershed AND FLOOD WARNING for the Temash and Rio Grande Watersheds as follows:

- In the Moho River watershed, The Blue Creek bridge crossing is impassable and rising. At Jordan, levels are approaching bank full stage and rising.

- In the Temash river and Rio Grande watershed, levels are rising and may approach flood stage.

***Citizens in these areas are advised to exercise extreme caution***

The next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on Tuesday June 14, 2022.

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Monday June 13, Tropical Weather Briefing



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Monday view from Corozal Town. It was a rainy morning. Photo by Belize Scoop Blogger

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]


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