Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline

Belize Weather Forecast: June 15, 2022


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear in the north this morning, light clouds in the south. San Pedro has thin cloud cover with a little blue sky peeking through. Moderate easterly airflow.
Advisories: Operators of small crafts are advised to exercise caution for gusty winds and rough seas. A flood warning is in effect for the Toledo District.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, except for a few more over the toledo district this morning and tonight.
Winds: E, 10-20 kts
Sea State: Moderate
Waves: 4-6 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: (Thur & Thur night) Cloudy at times with a few showers or thunderstorms over most areas on Thursday, then mostly over the coast Thursday night.
Sargassum Forecast from June 14 to June 22: Satellite imagery suggests that a high concentration of Sargassum mats remains over the area. As a result, there is a high chance that more sargassum could drift onto local beaches during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability with a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A small area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible late this week as this system drifts northwestward. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next five days. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:


Phoenix Resort in San Pedro

The Caribbean Sea

There is a tropical wave moving across the basin.

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean has decreased over the last 24-hours. Easterly winds are now moderate to fresh across the majority of the basin, with gentle to moderate conditions in the NW basin. Seas are generally 5-8 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed in the eastern Caribbean from 12N to 18N east of 68W with similar activity noted over portions of the Greater Antilles.

For the forecast, weak low pressure currently located to the east of southern Nicaragua will remain nearly stationary through today, then drift slowly NW along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras later this week, and over the Gulf of Honduras through early Sat. The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. A surface ridge north of the area will persist supporting fresh to occasionally strong E winds along with choppy seas between these features through the end of the work week. The strongest winds are expected in the south- central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
27° C
80° F
Inland 34° C
93° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE:
High: 10:02 AM Low: 6:27 PM
High: 11:58 PM Low: 4:18 AM (Thu)
Sunrise: 5:18 AM Moonset: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 6:28 PM Moonrise: 8:11 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline
[Linked Image]

The National Hurricane Center classifies Invest 93L, the area located in the Southwest of the Caribbean Sea, some forecast models believe that this area could have a certain chance of evolving into a cyclonic system, while other models fail to capture that development. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a small area of low pressure has formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Further development of this system is possible while it drifts northwestward near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, and it could become a tropical depression later this week if the disturbance remains over water.

The line of the graph is the GFS assembly and represents where the low pressure system could cross, this model in the last updates has been decreasing the intensity of this system. Regardless of development, the low could produce periods of heavy rainfall across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras through late this week. It has a low (30 percent) chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a medium (40 percent) chance of formation in the next 5 days.

A U.S. Air Force reserve plane is scheduled to investigate this system today if necessary.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

[Linked Image]

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning the sea is still rough from the strong winds of late. The expected high temperature is 87 f.

11215834_10153347944419525_8054567361441605109_n.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline
There is air coming down from the north over Florida and Cuba, causing some diversion in the Caribbean winds, in part, keeping the high level winds mainly south of Belize. The met office expect rain tomorrow and a lot of cloud and rain on Friday and Saturday.

Looks as if today will be mainly sunshine, but with significant clouds, and just toe odd rain patch.

Last Night 26 °C 79 °F Yesterday max. 31 °C 88 °F Yesterday Rain 4.4mm ( 0.2 " ) Over Night Rain 1.1 mm ( 0 " )

0B63063A-5F4D-4A81-B439-FC4CB1A4266C.png C5C5B8D0-48F5-4A9C-90F2-F6B5F6050326.png
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline
Crown Weather:
Invest 93-L Inland Over Nicaragua and Is Much More Disorganized & Development Chances Are Now Much Lower

Satellite imagery, surface weather data and other information indicates that the shower and thunderstorm activity with Invest 93-L is more disorganized than what it was yesterday. In addition, it appears that the small low to mid level center seems to be located right along the coast of southeastern Nicaragua. This is a lot more land interaction than what was expected even 24 hours ago as I thought that it wouldn't be until tomorrow that we would see the center cross the coast of eastern Nicaragua.

For now, my thinking is that Invest 93-L will remain over land as it tracks across eastern Nicaragua through Thursday and then across eastern Honduras Thursday night into part of Friday. A brief stint across the Gulf of Honduras looks possible later Friday and Friday night before Invest 93-L moves inland across Belize on Saturday. I think that the short amount of time that this system is over the waters of the Gulf of Honduras will not be enough for it to develop. With that said, it'll be something to watch for.

Either way, Invest 93-L is very likely to produce heavy rainfall across eastern Nicaragua, eastern and northern Honduras throughout the rest of this week and then across the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late this week and this weekend.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline
Flood Report and Forecast for June 15, 2022

River Conditions

A FLOOD WARNING is in effect for rivers in the South of the country

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the coast, levels are below normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, levels are normal and steady; and at Caledonia, levels are above normal steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remain below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge. The MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town is below normal and falling. On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are normal and steady; the CROOKED TREE LAGOON remains below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels are near normal and steady. The SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is above normal and rising. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge levels are near normal and falling. The public is hereby advised that FLOOD WARNING is in effect for the RIO GRANDE, and TEMASH RIVERS as follows:

� The RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia is FLOODED, the bridge crossing is impassable as the river is once again rising; and at Big Falls South, the river is FLOODED and rising. � On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are at FLOOD STAGE and rising The DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is above normal and falling.

� The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South is FLOODED, the BRIDGE CROSSING IS IMPASSABLE at this time; and at Jordan, levels are approaching FLOOD STAGE and rising. The TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is at FLOOD STAGE and rising.

REGION 13 - The SARSTOON RIVER is at FLOOD STAGE and rising.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the coast, normal levels expected. On the NEW RIVER, at Tower Hill and Caledonia, above normal levels expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, expect normal levels.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, expect normal levels; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, levels expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, normal levels expected; and on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, normal levels expected. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, decreasing levels expected. Above normal levels expected on the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER. FLOOD WARNING continues on the RIO GRANDE - at San Pedro Columbia, FLOOD STAGE levels are expected to begin to decrease. and at Big Falls South, Flood levels are expected to become steady later today. DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, is expected to decrease to above normal levels. FLOOD levels on the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan are receding, above normal levels expected. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco Flood levels expected to decrease to near FLOOD STAGE.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, above normal levels expected.

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline
Present Condition: Mostly clear on the mainland, a few scattered clouds. Mostly clear skies in San Pedro, a little hazy and windy. Generally fair weather prevails. A flood watch remains in effect for the Toledo District.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells this afternoon and tomorrow morning and partly cloudy skies tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, except for slightly moe over the southern districts this afternoon and tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop around the country tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Between Thursday afternoon and Friday midday is for a gradual increase in showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain around the country.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

The small area of low pressure is located along the east coast of Nicaragua accompanied by a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly today, then drift northwestward along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras later this week. Some slow development of this system is still possible if it moves back over water. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system today has been canceled. Regardless of development, the low could produce periods of heavy rainfall across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras through late this week. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a low (30 percent) chance in the next 5 days.

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline
This spot looks so great but I still need to try it! Photo by San Pedro Scoop

Amy Knox:
Awesome!!!!! I LOVE the pika pika ramen. And then the veggie fried rice is Da Bomb!

Toshiya Tsujimoto:
We are updating ramen501 new menu & more fan drinks coming up after Lobsterfest (lobster ramen will be back too!)

[Linked Image]

GAME 5, San Pedro version. Photo by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

Hamanasi Resort Library. Lovely Destination at Hamanasi Resort. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline
Analysis shows tropical wave arriving in Central America. Starting tomorrow it will begin to have effects on the Peninsula. Zone of instability on land and another tropical wave approaches from the Caribbean.

[Linked Image]

Wednesday - June 15, Tropical Weather Briefing



Link Copied to Clipboard
June
S M T W T F S
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30
Cayo Espanto
Click for Cayo Espanto, and have your own private island
More Links
Click for exciting and adventurous tours of Belize with Katie Valk!
Who's Online Now
0 members (), 168 guests, and 0 robots.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Statistics
Forums44
Topics79,209
Posts500,042
Members20,483
Most Online7,413
Nov 7th, 2021



AmbergrisCaye.com CayeCaulker.org HELP! Visitor Center Goods & Services San Pedro Town
BelizeSearch.com Message Board Lodging Diving Fishing Things to Do History
BelizeNews.com Maps Phonebook Belize Business Directory
BelizeCards.com Picture of the Day

The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members
and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.

Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.5