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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,397
Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: June 16, 2022


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear with a little bit of haze this morning. Considerable clouds offshore in the south. A few light clouds in San Pedro. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.
Advisories: A flood watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding in the Toledo District.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and cloudy skies tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop around the country today, increasing tonight.
Winds: E-NE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Light Chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: For Friday and Friday night is for cloudy skies with some showers, thunderstorms and periods of light rain.
Sargassum Forecast from June 14 to June 22: Satellite imagery suggests that a high concentration of Sargassum mats remains over the area. As a result, there is a high chance that more sargassum could drift onto local beaches during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability with a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: An area of low pressure located inland over eastern Nicaragua is accompanied by a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Additional development is unlikely during the next day or so whiles the low remains inland. The system is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is possible. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:


Phoenix Resort in San Pedro

The Caribbean Sea

A pair of tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to fresh winds over most of the E and central Caribbean, and also E of the Lesser Antilles while mainly moderate winds prevail W of 80W. Embedded areas of fresh to strong winds are seen near Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic, and in the southern Caribbean S of 15N between 68W and 72W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except 5-7 ft in the central Caribbean.

For the forecast, as previously mentioned, an area of low pressure located inland over northeastern Nicaragua is accompanied by a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Additional development is unlikely today while the low remains inland. The system is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is possible by Friday. Some development is also possible over the southern Bay of Campeche by early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and southeastern Mexico through the weekend. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected over the NW Caribbean later today through Sat morning in association with the above mentioned area of low pressure. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of fresh to locally strong winds over the southern Caribbean roughly S of 15N between 64W and 72W at night.


  High Low
Coastal 30° C
86° F
24° C
76° F
Inland 33° C
92° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 26° C
79° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE:
High: 10:54 AM Low: 6:19 PM
High: 12:46 AM (Fri) Low: 5:12 AM (Fri)
Sunrise: 5:18 AM Moonset: 7:28 AM
Sunset: 6:28 PM Moonrise: 9:12 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,397
Marty Offline OP
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From NMS Belize:

Odds of the system development are decreasing as it is now over land in Nicaragua. There is a small chance that it could redevelop once it emerges over waters in the Gulf of Honduras but models are not suggesting any major development.

For now, it looks like just a broad area of low pressure that will start to affect us on Thursday night with increasing rains. The photo below is the rain forecast from one model for Friday.

Locally, higher amounts of rainfall are possible and flooding is the main threat as we go into the weekend. Rains will persist on Saturday and Sunday even after it moves west of us. We could also see gusty winds.

We remain vigilant and urge everyone to have their family emergency plans.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

An area of interest is located over the eastern part of Nicaragua where a low pressure center is moving over ground. This system has decreased its likelihood of development to 20% for 5 days but there is still a possibility it will move towards the northwest and will head out to the Gulf of Honduras, where there are favorable conditions for possible development. The marked area is where you will find favorable conditions for development. Heavy rains may present in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the peninsula d and Yucatan in the next few days..

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

This year, a stronger high pressure over the North Atlantic will be a crucial factor in determining whether storms or hurricanes visit or threaten the U.S. coasts, the Caribbean region, Central America and the East coasts of Mexico more frequently fading. Stronger high pressure, in theory, leads to more terrestrial threats, which is a potential this hurricane season.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,397
Marty Offline OP
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Scattered rain showers around.

BE93EBEE-E892-4B36-AE99-E333FF3BA6B1.png 8A942AFE-BE5B-44E9-8460-6804199D84E2.png
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,397
Marty Offline OP
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It looks as if that wet area in the Caribbean might come our way by tomorrow.

Today looks as if it will generally be sunny, but with significant clouds and the chance of the odd rain shower anywhere.

Last Night 25 °C 78 °F Yesterday max. 32 °C 90 °F Yesterday Rain 1.1 mm ( 0 " ) Over Night Rain 2.2 mm ( 0.1 " )

[Linked Image]

NOAA - On this Thursday, a trough of low pressure located inland near the northeastern border of Nicaragua and Honduras is accompanied by a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Additional development is unlikely today while the disturbance remains inland. The system is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is possible by Friday. Some development is also possible over the southern Bay of Campeche by early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and southeastern Mexico through the weekend. It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a low (20 percent) in the next five days

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Posts: 84,397
Marty Offline OP
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Flood Report and Forecast for June 16, 2022

River Conditions

A FLOOD WARNING in effect for rivers in the South of the country

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the coast, levels are below normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, levels are normal and steady; and at Caledonia, levels are above normal and decreasing.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remain below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge. The MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town is near normal. On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are normal and steady; the CROOKED TREE LAGOON remains below the causeway and falling.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels are below normal and increasing. The SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is above normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge levels are near normal with minimal increase in water levels. The public is hereby advised that FLOOD WARNING is in effect for the RIO GRANDE, and TEMASH RIVERS as follows:

� The RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia is FLOODED, level is below the bridge with decreasing river levels at this time; and at Big Falls South, the river is FLOODED and continues to rise. � On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are at FLOOD STAGE and rising. The DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is above normal and falling. � The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South is FLOODED, the level is below the bridge, but river levels are rising at this time; and at Jordan, levels are approaching FLOOD STAGE and falling. The TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is at FLOOD STAGE and falling.

REGION 13 - The SARSTOON RIVER is at FLOOD STAGE and rising.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the coast, normal levels expected. On the NON RIVER, at Tower Hill and Caledonia, above normal levels expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, expect normal levels.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, expect normal levels; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, levels expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, normal levels expected; and on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, normal levels expected. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, decreasing levels expected. Above normal levels expected on the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER.

FLOOD WARNING continues on the RIO GRANDE - at San Pedro Columbia, FLOOD STAGE levels are expected to begin to decrease. and at Big Falls South, Flood levels are expected to become steady later today.

DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, is expected to decrease to above normal levels. FLOOD levels on the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan to recede, above normal levels expected. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco Flood levels expected to decrease to near FLOOD STAGE.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, above normal levels expected.

Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Mostly sunny with a few scattered clouds on the mainland, more clouds on the SE coastline. Mostly sunny in San Pedro. A relatively moist east to northeasterly airflow prevails. A flood watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas of the country during the next couple of days.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells this afternoon and evening with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms especially south and inland. Cloudy tonight and tomorrow morning with some showers, thunderstorms and periods of light rain over the south and coast at first, then spreading over most areas by midday.

Outlook: Some showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect most areas of the country Friday afternoon, then mainly northern and central areas Friday night and Saturday morning.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Tropical wave arriving to the eastern peninsula. It will promote severe storms in the region. Low pressure still in the watch over Central America and another tropical wave is located in the central Caribbean.

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,397
Marty Offline OP
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I said the other day, that ITCZ activity, if it collects together, can be the start of a more significant storm.

I also said that if a stork moves northwards, then it can start to rotate due to the Coriolis Effect, well all these ITCZ activity in the west Caribbean could pull together and be the start of just such a storm, added by the HURRICANE BLAS in the Pacific and now the extra TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E just forming, also in the Pacific to the south of us.

I do not see any of this causing us a problem except possible significant rain over the next few days.

[Linked Image]

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Marty Offline OP
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National MET Service - Thursday, June 16 - Tropical Weather Briefing.



Thursday morning view from Corozal Town. Photos by Belize Scoop Blogger

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Drumming lessons on the beach in Hopkins.



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