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Belize Weather Forecast: June 17, 2022


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Light cloud cover on the mainland this morning. Mostly clear, a few clouds in San Pedro. A trough of low pressure in the Northwest Caribbean sea will keep our weather moist and unstable for the next few days. Heavy rainfall is expected this weekend starting late today as a weather system that has been located near the northeastern border of Nicaragua and Honduras will be making its way over the Belizean territory.
Advisories: Operators of small crafts are advised to exercise caution for gusty winds and rough seas in heavy showers and thunderstorms. A flood watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas of the country during the next couple of days.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy skies today with sunny breaks. Tonight skies will be mostly cloudy. Expect on and off outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms to affect most areas of the country during today and tonight.
Winds: E-NE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Choppy - Rough
Waves: 3=7 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: For Saturday and Saturday night is for cloudy conditions with some otbreaks of showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain to affect most areas of the country.
Sargassum Forecast from June 14 to June 22: Satellite imagery suggests that a high concentration of Sargassum mats remains over the area. As a result, there is a high chance that more sargassum could drift onto local beaches during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability with a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland a over northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or Saturday. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next couple of days, but regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Belize through the weekend. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:


Phoenix Resort in San Pedro

The Caribbean Sea

An area of low pressure is found over the Gulf of Honduras and across the adjacent Caribbean waters, accompanied by active weather east and northeastward to 78W. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft prevail NE of the low. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure will move slowly west northwestward over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is possible today. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected over the NW Caribbean through tonight in association with the area of low pressure. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail with the exception of fresh to locally strong winds over the southern Caribbean roughly S of 15N between 64W and 74W at night. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across much of the basin Sat night through Mon as high pressure builds modestly north of the area.


  High Low
Coastal 29° C
84° F
24° C
76° F
Inland 31° C
88° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE:
Low: 5:12 AM High: 11:48 AM
Low: 7:12 PM High: 1:35 AM (Sat)
Sunrise: 5:18 AM Moonset: 8:36 AM
Sunset: 6:29 PM Moonrise: 10:05 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


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We are monitoring Invest93L for possible tropical depression development June 16-18, 2022, in the Gulf of Honduras.
Projected is a Belize / Yucatan border landfall of either a low-pressure area or a tropical depression (30 mph) late June 18, 2022.

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

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On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a 13 mph breeze from the Northeast making the sea around our barrier reef moderate Another inch of rain fell last night and it seems more is coming. Today's expected high temperature is 88 f.
A little rain wakes the flowers.

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That large area of ITCZ activity in the west Caribbean is moving in towards Belize, causing many isolated rain showers around. It is causing the wind over Belize to be coming down from the NE Presently most rain is way out at sea. The activity is made more complex by the rotating storm TS CELIA in the Pacific not far to the south of us. This small Tropical storm and the HURRICANE BLAS are both going further out in the Pacific away from us, but they are having some effect on our weather. INVEST 93L which is all this ITCZ activity in the Caribbean, could develop into a storm in the Gulf if it does wander that way, as far as we are concerned, it is just rain for the next two to three days.

Looks as if today is going to be very mixed, some sunshine, mainly low, medium and high cloud, and many patches of rain.

Last Night 25 °C 77 °F Yesterday max. 32 °C 89 °F Yesterday Rain 2.2 mm ( 0 .1" ) Over Night Rain 5.0 mm ( 0.2 " )

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FRIDAY - TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK - NOAA MWS NHC

On this Friday, disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland over northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Saturday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico through the weekend. It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation in the next 48 hours and in the next 5 days

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Present Condition: Mostly cloudy on the mainland, mostly cloudy with some sunshine in San Pedro. A low pressure system over the Northwest Caribbean sea will continue to support moist and unstable conditions over the area during the next few days. Small craft caution remains in effect for gusty winds and rough seas in heavy showers and thunderstorms. A flood watch remains in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas of the country during the next couple of days.

24hr Forecast: Mostly cloudy skies during the daytime and tonight with some showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain over most areas.

Outlook: For Saturday afternoon to Sunday midday is for mostly cloudy conditions with showers, thunderstorms and periods rain continuing over most areas of the country.

[Linked Image]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland over northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or Saturday. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next couple of days, but regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Belize through the weekend.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Flood Report and Forecast for June 17, 2022

River Conditions

FLOOD ALERT in effect for rivers in the South of the country

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the coast, levels are below normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, levels are below normal and steady; and at Caledonia, levels are above normal steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remain below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge. The MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town is below normal and falling.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are normal and steady; the CROOKED TREE LAGOON remains below the causeway and falling.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels are near normal and steady. The SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is above normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge levels are near normal and shows a minimal rise.

Flood levels on the RIO GRANDE, MOHO and TEMASH Rivers are receding slowly as follows: � The RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia is receding and is now below the bridge crossing; and at Big Falls South, the river has receding to above normal levels. � On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are above normal and falling. The DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank is above normal and falling. � The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, and on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is above normal and continues to recede.

REGION 13 - The SARSTOON RIVER is above normal and receding.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the coast, above normal levels expected. On the NEW RIVER, at Tower Hill and Caledonia, above normal levels expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, expect near normal levels.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, above normal levels; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, levels expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, and on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, above normal levels expected. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels expected to increase to above normal levels.

The Swasey and Bladen Branches of the MONKEY RIVER is expected to increase becoming near FLOOD STAGE levels. The DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank and the GOLDEN STREAM at Helgate, is expected to increase. FLOOD ALERT IS HEREBY ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and BIG FALLS SOUTH, the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan and the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco as rivers in these areas are expected to increase. The DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, is expected to increase to above normal levels.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, above normal levels expected.

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Crown Weather:

Invest 93-L Expected To Move Into Belize Tonight Without Developing

Satellite imagery and other weather data indicates that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93-L) is now located over the northwestern Caribbean just east of Belize. There has been an increase in thunderstorm activity with Invest 93-L and the environmental conditions are favorable for development due to low wind shear values.

Even though Invest 93-L is located in an environment that's favorable for development, I don't think that it'll have enough time to develop. The reason for this is that this disturbance is likely to push inland into Belize tonight and then head westward into southern Mexico and because of this, development is not expected.

Even though tropical development is not expected, Invest 93-L is still expected to produce heavy rainfall across Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico from the rest of today through this weekend.

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

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The big picture. Rain in Belize still around but reducing and moving to the west.

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Rainy Weekend across the Country

It is going to be a wet and rainy weekend across the country with potential flooding in low-lying areas. The National Meteorological Service has been tracking a weather system that has moved through Nicaragua and Honduras and is about to emerge in the Gulf of Honduras. Experts do not expect the system to develop into a depression. There is, however, a high chance of heavy rainfall across Belize over the next few days. It is something you should be preparing for in the event you have outdoor plans for the weekend. We spoke with Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon about the weekend weather.�

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist, National Meteorological Service

"Like you rightly mentioned, we had been monitoring a system that was showing potential for development over the south-west Caribbean Sea. That system has moved over Nicaragua and then Honduras, and is about to emerge over the Golf of Honduras. The system now has a low chance of becoming a depression or so before it comes over our area, but it has a lot of moisture with it and as a result we expect that there will be several showers and thunderstorms within the next few days, over the weekend and even early into next week, because the environment will remain very moist in that system."

Paul Lopez

"Are there any areas in particular that needs to be concerned or on the alert for flooding and heavy rains?"

Ronald Gordon

"Certainly, we expect rainfalls over most of the country, so we are not focusing on any particular area. In terms of flooding, the usual flood prone areas, low lying areas, and of course in the south where there are the rivers and streams and so on, you can be on the lookout for possibility of flooding with that."


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Come visit San Pedro Ambergris Caye, Belize. Coffee from Lavish Habit. Photo by Belize Scoop Blogger

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