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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: September 1, 2022


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Light clouds cover most of the mainland this morning. Mostly clear with a few clouds in San Pedro. Moist and unstable weather will continue to prevail for the next few days.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy skies today with sunny breaks. Tonight skies will be cloudy. A few outbreaks of showers, isolated thunderstorms or periods of rain will develop mainly along central coast and northern areas this morning and then spread to most areas by afternoon. Shower activity will decrease a bit tonight and then tomorrow expect some outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms to develop over most areas.
Winds: E-SE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Light Chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Friday is for cloudy spells with some showers, thunderstorms and periods rain affecting most areas of the country and slightly decreasing by Friday night.
Sargassum Forecast from August 30 to September 14: There is a high chance that the country could be affected by more sargassum mats during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability with a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:


Phoenix Resort in San Pedro


View at the airport/sunset

The Caribbean Sea

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted in the south central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 3-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trades across the S central Caribbean through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will reach moderate to fresh speeds Thu through Fri night. Elsewhere, slight winds and seas will prevail.


  High Low
Coastal 30° C
86° F
26° C
79° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 27° C
81° F
19° C
67° F
TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE:
Low: 7:20 AM High: 1:30 PM
Low: 6:48 PM High: 1:20 AM (Fri)
Sunrise: 5:38 AM Moonrise: 10:11 AM
Sunset: 6:06 PM Moonset: 9:50 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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[Linked Image]

August ends with no named storms but history tells us not to rest

It's very unusual to go through August with no tropical storms being named in the Atlantic, but it's not unheard of. And history tells us that seasons that wait until September to crank up can sometimes be quite memorable.

In 1961, for example, there was a June hurricane in the southern Caribbean and then nothing until September when monster Category 4 Hurricane Carla ravaged the Texas coast. Later in the month, Category 5 Hurricane Esther weakened before impacting New England. A month later, Category 5 Hurricane Hattie tracked across the Caribbean and slammed Belize, decimating the capital city. There were only 12 named storms in 1961, but it was a very impactful hurricane season.

In 2001, there were no hurricanes until September, but we ended up with 9 for the season. The point it, we still have a lot of hurricane season to go.

Today, there are three systems spinning in the Atlantic, and at least two of them have a decent chance of getting named.

Tropical Disturbance #1 has been lollygagging east of the Caribbean islands. Forecast errors are consistently larger than normal for slow-moving, disorganized systems, so we want to be sure the forecasts are right, and the system tracks toward the waters north of Puerto Rico and east of the Bahamas before bending out to sea.

The disurbance is still trying to organize and fight off a moderately dry environment surrounding the developing circulation. But the consensus of the computer forecast models is that it will be able to organize into at least a tropical depression over the next few days as it drifts along a track that would keep it clear of the islands.

This disturbance has a decent chance of becoming a named storm over the open ocean east of the Bahamas.

Disturbance #2 started out as a non-tropical system left over from a dying cold front. It is forecast to get stranded in a pocket of atmosphere conducive for the system to organize and intensify. The computer forecast models indicate there's a good chance it will meet the criteria to be named, although it might be one of those hybrid tropical/non-tropical systems we call subtropical. In any case, it would count as a named storm.

The system is moving away from the U.S. in the open North Atlantic.

Tropical Disturbance #3 is the disorganized system near the Cabo Verde Islands just off the coast of Africa. It has a short window of time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm before it heads over colder water in the eastern Atlantic.

Even if it does organize, it would likely be over the open ocean at that time.

None of these systems appears to be a threat to land on our side of the Atlantic, though we'll keep an eye on Tropical Disturbance #1 through the weekend to be sure.

Except for the dry air over the Atlantic, the environmental conditions across the tropics seem conducive for tropical development. So the odds still favor a busy second half of the hurricane season.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

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On Ambergris Caye this morning the wind is from the Southeast at 8 mph and the sea around our barrier reef is flat and calm. It's a sunny day with the expected high temperature set at 86 f.

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White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
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Marty Offline OP
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There is a very large area of ITCZ swellups all over the western Caribbean. The easterly Caribbean winds are already bringing scattered showers in, mainly to the north, but later to central and southern areas.

Looks as if today will start with a fair bit of sunshine, some cloud, then get cloudier and significant patches of rain later.

Last Night 25 °C 77 °F Yesterday max. 33 °C 91 °F Yesterday Rain 7.1 mm ( 0.28 " ) Over Night Rain 3.8 mm ( 0.15 " ) Humidity 90 % Pressure 1001 mBar ( 29.6" ) Very Low

F8DB2B6D-CAA2-4349-A293-E4B524611360.png 25EC828E-A62E-4B0A-BC07-BA04E2BD965B.png
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Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Light clouds cover most of the mainland more so in the north. Mostly cloudy in San Pedro. Moist and unstable conditions continue as a tropical wave affects the country. A small craft caution is in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers or thunderstorms.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells during the daytime becoming mostly cloudy to overcast tonight. Some showers, a few thunderstorms or periods of rain will affect most of the country but especially central areas this afternoon through to midday tomorrow.

Outlook: Cloudy at times with a few showers, isolated thunderstorms or periods of light rain developing mainly over central and southern areas Friday afternoon and night; then over most places by Saturday morning.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Complex area of instability with low pressures and tropical wave promises to leave rains and possible floods in our region.

[Linked Image]

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Marty Offline OP
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This morning, I showed some mid-high level from the west.. . This has now become the main factor and pushing against the other high level from the east and clashing with the Caribbean winds in many places causing many rain areas.

78E4D5BE-031F-4646-BEE2-CDDAF8ED13F3.png D0529D78-8FA8-475B-9EBE-91A48243175E.png
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The tide was very high.. drivers had to use caution when traversing behind San Pedro high school going towards sandy toes. The tide was almost touching the high school walls... Photos by San Pedro FM

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[Linked Image]

Thursday view to the sea in Hopkins. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

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Heavy wind-rain this morning, with some thunder. My rain gauge shows 7/8 of an inch from 6 PM to 6AM. Elbert had better use his under-water camera this morning!


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