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Today's Belize Weather Report for September 20, 2022 #559521
09/20/22 06:11 AM
09/20/22 06:11 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,939
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: September 20, 2022


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy onm the mainland this morning, including in San Pedro. A light northeasterly airflow dominates the weather.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and partly cloudy skies tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated.
Winds: E-NE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Wednesday and Wednesday night is for similar weather conditions.
Sargassum Forecast from September 14 to September 21: There is a low to medium chance of a few more sargassum mats affecting beaches especially over southern parts of the country. San Pedro has a low probability with a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00 am, Hurricane Fiona was centered near 21.3N 70.9W, or about 20 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island, Turks and Caicos. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:


Phoenix Resort in San Pedro


View at the airport/sunset

The Caribbean Sea

There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, and none in the Caribbean. Hurricane Fiona is Category 3, approximately 20 mi from Grand Turk Island.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms trailing behind from Fiona are north of 16N between 64W-71W. Similar activity is south of 15N and west of 74W and south of 14N between 64W-67W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere across the basin.

Fresh northeast winds are in the Windward Passage and in between Jamaica and Haiti per latest ASCAT data. Wave heights with these winds are 4-5 ft. Moderate SE winds are occurring east of 70W, while moderate W winds are noted on the latest scatterometer data between 70W-78W. Seas are still 5-7 ft over the east Caribbean in large swell coming through the Mona Passage. Wave heights are still 8 ft or higher in the Mona passage, but will be subsiding later today. In the northwestern Caribbean, gentle to moderate northeast to east winds continue, where seas are 1-2 ft.

Major Hurricane Fiona north of the area located about 20 nm southeast of Grand Turk Island will continue to move farther away from the Caribbean through Wed while strengthening. Residual swell over the eastern Caribbean from Fiona will subside through Tue. A tropical wave, currently east of the area near 52W, is expected to move across the Tropical N Atlantic from tonight through Wed, across the eastern Caribbean Wed night through Thu and across the central Caribbean Fri through Sat night. Gradual development of this system is forecast during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical depression could form toward the latter part of this week or weekend as the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
26° C
79° F
Inland 34° C
93° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 28° C
82° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE:
High: 5:13 AM Low: 1:15 PM
High: 8:33 PM Low: 12:31 AM (Wed)
Sunrise: 5:41 AM Moonset: 2:40 PM
Sunset: 5:50 PM Moonrise: 1:57 AM (Wed)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



Winds:


250 Km Radar Picture
(Time Label on picture is GMT. Local time is GMT-6 Hours)


For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Re: Today's Belize Weather Report for September 20, 2022 [Re: Marty] #559522
09/20/22 06:11 AM
09/20/22 06:11 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,939
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
[Linked Image]

Possible cyclonic threat for the next few days in the Caribbean and even the Yucatan Peninsula.

In additional to Hurricane Fiona we are closely observing a tropical wave in the central Atlantic that is producing unorganized showers and thunderstorms and currently has a 30% chance of cyclonic development for 5 days.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

[Linked Image]

Re: Today's Belize Weather Report for September 20, 2022 [Re: Marty] #559527
09/20/22 07:14 AM
09/20/22 07:14 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,575
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
.
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a calm sea around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is set at 88f.

FB_IMG_1663679459292.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Today's Belize Weather Report for September 20, 2022 [Re: Marty] #559528
09/20/22 08:43 AM
09/20/22 08:43 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,939
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
There is not much movement of the Caribbean winds, but there is mid level cloud coming in from the WSW, which has caused a few small rain shower patches.

Looks as if today will be fairly sunny, but with significant cloud and there can be the odd rain showers.

Last Night 25 C 77 F Yesterday max. 32 C 90 F Yesterday Rain 0.2 mm ( 0.01 " ) Over Night Rain 1.8 mm ( 0.02 " ) Humidity 88 % Pressure 1002 mBar Low

1AB73F6F-DCCF-4453-992C-FA3991FB0ADA.png8C2343D1-F7C2-40EE-81FF-2DE813F32AC4.png
Re: Today's Belize Weather Report for September 20, 2022 [Re: Marty] #559529
09/20/22 12:10 PM
09/20/22 12:10 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,939
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
General Situation
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY...

24-Hour Forecast
SUNNY WITH A FEW CLOUDY SPELLS DURING THE DAYTIME AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE COUNTRY.

Outlook
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TO MIDDAY ON THURSDAY IS FOR A SIMILAR TREND IN WEATHER CONDITIONS.

Re: Today's Belize Weather Report for September 20, 2022 [Re: Marty] #559530
09/20/22 03:12 PM
09/20/22 03:12 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 81,939
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy in the south, not so much in the north.

Crown Weather:
Invest 98-L Is Very Likely To Develop In The Central Caribbean This Weekend & Invest 98-L Could Eventually Be BIG Trouble For The Northwestern Caribbean

Satellite imagery today indicated that Invest 98-L is producing some deep convection, however, recent satellite estimated wind data revealed that there is no low-level center as of yet.

A look at the environmental conditions around Invest 98-L shows that there is some 25-30 knots of wind shear affecting it. Further west though, the wind shear values decrease substantially in the Caribbean. Because of this, I think that slow development is likely over the next 2 to 3 days or so with much quicker and more significant development and strengthening likely this weekend by the time Invest 98-L reaches the central Caribbean.

This means that I think that we may see Invest 98-L become a tropical depression as soon as it reaches the southeastern Caribbean on Thursday, but more likely as it approaches the central Caribbean late Friday into Saturday. Strengthening into a tropical storm and very possibly a hurricane could then occur as this system gets near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday.

The track of Invest 98-L is likely to be westward for the next few days. What may occur once this system reaches the central Caribbean is that it will probably start being tugged northward like many other systems this season. This northward tug could be caused by a progressive upper level pattern over the northern and eastern United States. This all means that instead of just heading due west eventually towards Central America, I think that well see Invest 98-L get steered towards the northwestern Caribbean early next week.

As for intensity, the SHIPS intensity model forecasts a very favorable environment for significant strengthening once Invest 98-L moves past 70 West Longitude. These forecast environmental conditions include wind shear values of 10 knots or less, Caribbean water temperatures of about 30 Degrees Celsius and relative humidity values of about 65 to 70 percent.

This means that this system could ramp up quite quickly once it reaches the central Caribbean late this weekend and then affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. I strongly urge anyone across the western and northwestern Caribbean to go over your hurricane supplies in case this system brings you hurricane conditions early next week.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]


New Tropical Storm Likely for Parts of the Caribbean
A new tropical storm is likely to form for parts of the Caribbean. This strong tropical disturbance is moving into the Eastern Caribbean. It will then develop as it heads toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Meanwhile, Hurricane Fiona continues to bring hurricane conditions to the Turks & Caicos.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Flood Forecast for today September 20, 2022

The National Hydrological Service hereby updates the public on river conditions in the country and issues the following:

REGION 9
FLOOD ALERT - Residents are advised that flood levels on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON persist.

REGION 7
FLOOD WARNING Flood warning is in effect for the New River.

REGION 11
FLOOD WARNING - Flood warring is in effect for the Sibun River.
FLOOD WATCH - Flood watch remains in effect for the Rio Grande, Monkey, the Deep, the Moho and Temash Rivers.


REGION 7

On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, and at, San Roman, above normal and decreasing levels, are expected. At Douglas, and downstream to the coast, above normal and steady levels are expected.

On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, the river has exceeded its banks, and at Caledonia, a Flood warning is in effect as the river at this station has exceeded its banks.

REGION 9

On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, near normal stage expected. On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities are expected to become steady. At San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the low-level bridge. On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, above normal levels expected with slowly decreasing levels. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, steady flood levels are expected

REGION 11

On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, Flood levels are expected to continue to recede and then increase minimally. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village, above normal and steady levels are expected.

In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, above-normal levels are expected. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, Flood stage levels are expected to increase minimally. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, expect levels to increase to above normal levels. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, above-normal levels are expected.

On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia, a Flood Watch is in effect as levels are at Bank full stage; and, at Big Falls South levels are expected to increase to above normal levels.

On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, near flood stage levels are expected; and at Jordan, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels.

On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, above-normal and increasing levels are expected.

REGION 13

On the SARSTOON RIVER, above-normal levels are expected.

===================

Calm views at Sunrise in San Pedro: Photo by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

Dang, it's hot in San Pedro...wind is only a few mph and the water is flat. Good day to be IN the water! We've had a beautiful few days...today the wind is way down (I always imagine hurricanes suck it out of the whole Caribbean)...it's gonna be a HOT 21st! Photos by San Pedro Scoop

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Good morning from a beautiful Hopkins Village sunrise! Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Orange Walk Town Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Aziatic performing for the youths of Belize in Corozal.



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