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elbert Offline OP
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General Forecast
Morning Forecast
September 21, 2022 at 6:00 AM
General Situation

24-Hour Forecast

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elbert Offline OP
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On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a calm sea around our barrier reef with an overcast sky and light rain. The wind is from the North blowing at 4 mph. Today's expected high temperature is set at 88f.


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Joined: Oct 1999
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High level cloud from the WSW and only smaller patches of easterly Caribbean cloud around, just a few traces of rain.

Looks as if today will be mainly sunny, but with significant normal cloud and high level cloud, small chance of the odd rain shower.

Last Night 26 °C 79 °F Yesterday max. 33 °C 91 °F Yesterday Rain 1.8 mm ( 0.02 " ) Over Night Rain 0 mm ( 0 " ) Humidity 86 % Pressure 1002 mBar Low

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Joined: Oct 1999
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Present Condition: Mostly sunny on the mainland, a few scattered clouds. Mostly sunny in San Pedro. Moist and relatively unstable conditions prevail over the area.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy at times today and tonight then sunny with a few cloudy spells tomorrow. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur mostly over inland and northern areas this afternoon then over the south tonight. Activity will otherwise be isolated.

Outlook: Mainly fair conditions are expected for Thursday afternoon through midday Friday. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, along with the chance for a few more inland during the afternoon and over the south at night.

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A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity near the southern Windward Islands and over adjacent waters. The system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty winds are affecting these islands. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later this week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to survey the system this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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Crown Weather:

Invest 98-L Located A Couple Of Hundred Miles To The East Of The Windward Islands: Invest 98-L appears to be a little less organized than what it was yesterday at this time. Satellite imagery indicates that there are disorganized thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance and there may be some sort of a mid-level circulation located to the southeast of Barbados.

The disorganized look of Invest 98-L is due to the fact that this system is being impacted by northerly wind shear of 25 knots from Fiona's outflow.

Does this mean that Invest 98-L will not develop now? ABSOLUTELY NOT!! Once Fiona lifts to the north and northeast over the next couple of days, it'll leave behind a favorable to extremely favorable environment for development and strengthening, especially once Invest 98-L reaches the central Caribbean this weekend and the northwestern Caribbean early next week.

Even though Invest 98-L is still disorganized, it's still quite potent as it has produced wind gusts of 50-55 mph on the island of Barbados this morning.

A look at the environmental conditions ahead of Invest 98-L reveals that the wind shear values decrease substantially once you reach about 70 West Longitude in the Caribbean with very low wind shear values noted across all of the central, western and northwestern Caribbean.

This means that I think that we'll either see no development or very slow development from Invest 98-L through Friday with much quicker and more significant development and strengthening likely this weekend by the time Invest 98-L reaches the central Caribbean.

This means that I think that we may not see Invest 98-L become a tropical depression until it's approaching the south-central Caribbean during Friday.

During this weekend into early next week, Invest 98-L is expected to find itself in a very favorable upper level pattern for strengthening as an upper level high pressure system builds over this system in the western Caribbean. In addition, the water temperatures over the western Caribbean are extremely warm and this very warm water extends quite a ways down in depth. This means that it looks quite likely that Invest 98-L will strengthen significantly probably into a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean once we get into Sunday and especially on Monday. This could put the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula at significant risk of a hurricane impact by Monday and Tuesday.

A majority of the GFS ensemble model members forecast a track right over the Cayman Islands on Monday, which is followed by a track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. The ensemble spread beyond this becomes quite large from a track just east of the Florida Peninsula to a track right across the Florida Peninsula to a track right into the central Gulf of Mexico.

A look at the super ensemble model guidance, which consists of all of the ensemble members from the European, GFS, UKMET and Canadian models, indicate a majority of the members show a track that takes Invest 98-L into the northwestern Caribbean on Monday (similar to the most recent GFS ensemble model guidance). Beyond this, a majority of the members show a track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by next Wednesday.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that Invest 98-L will reach the central Caribbean by Sunday where it'll likely begin to strengthen. Also, Invest 98-L will probably begin being tugged on a more northwestward track by that trough of low pressure over the eastern United States. This could cause Invest 98-L to be steered towards the northwestern Caribbean as an intensifying tropical storm and probably a hurricane by Monday.

This will put Jamaica at risk of being affected by at least tropical storm conditions on Sunday and then the Cayman Islands may be impacted by hurricane conditions on Monday.

A track towards the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel seems most plausible based on the anticipated upper level pattern. Because of this, hurricane conditions are a possibility for Cancun and Cozumel on about Tuesday.

Because of all this, I strongly urge anyone across the western and northwestern Caribbean, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula, to go over your hurricane supplies in case this system brings you hurricane conditions early next week.


Bryan Norcross:

Tropical Disturbance likely to organize in the Caribbean and could be a threat to the U.S. next week

Tropical Disturbance #1 is in an unfortunate position. It's far enough south that it's less likely to turn north until it reaches the western Caribbean. If it arcs to the north from below Cuba, it could threaten the Gulf coast, Florida, or the Bahamas. It will likely organize into a tropical depression over the next couple of days, at which time we'll get a forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center.

Tonight and tomorrow, the disturbance will track across the extreme southern Caribbean islands including Trinidad and Tobago bringing gusty winds and tropical downpours.

Until the weekend, hostile upper-level winds emanating from Hurricane Fiona are forecast to impact the system. That factor should slow any development, but it's probably not enough to keep the disturbance from organizing into at least a depression. As the system moves farther west in the Caribbean, however, the atmospheric environment is forecast to markedly improve. That, combined with the exceptionally warm water in the western Caribbean Sea, should allow the system to further organize and strengthen.

The various computer forecast models agree that the system will track across the Caribbean for the next few days. Then there is a decent chance it will evolve into a tropical storm or hurricane as it begins its turn north.

The graphic below shows the diversity of possible tracks. This is a way to visualize the uncertainty in the forecast. Notice the zone of concern extends from the Gulf to the Bahamas east of Florida.

This range of possibilities is normal for a system in its initial stages of development. The rule that forecast errors are highest for disorganized or just-developing systems applies. This visualization gives us an idea of the areas that need to stay fully aware of changes as the forecast evolves.

The differences in the various tracks are related to the forward speed of the system, how quickly it intensifies, how far north it tracks, plus the exact orientation of the dip in the jet stream that could scoop it north. The various combinations of these variables give us the diversity of possible long-range tracks.

If the storm were to form and move toward the U.S., it would likely not be an issue until at least Tuesday of next week, depending on its track.

At this point, do not focus on any tracks you see on the internet. The system has only begun to develop, and many factors are in play. The best anyone can do in the potentially affected areas is to stay informed.

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.


The Weather Forecast - September 20th, 2022

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
More rain in a number of locations on the mainland.

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